Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
London Wheat Report
Source: FutureSource
A bearish Monday in ag markets to start the week off. Estimates for Thursday’s WASDE report from the trade indicate that traders are looking for a build in bean carryout and an slight increase in world corn stocks. China is reporting a 4.6% increase in domestic corn production off a 5% increase in planted area, yield drop of 0.4% as wet weather late on hampered harvest and had a detrimental effect upon quality. Still a larger crop than last year at 272.6Mmt. Chicago wheat Mar-22 was trading down 9 cents at time of writing.
Wheat numbers anticipated for Thursday’s WASDE from the market are around an average guess of 589m/bu vs 583 last month for US production, world at 276Mmt vs 275.8Mmt last month. Argentine wheat crop rating spiked 12% up to 65% GD/EX with harvest ahead of average at 45% complete, but Brazil’s millers continue to refuse to import Argentinian wheat over the GM spat. Saudi Arabia purchased 689kt of 12.5 % wheat in an international tender, SAGO (Saudi Grains Organisation) confirmed earlier today. Origins offered include EU, Black Sea, North America and South America and Australia with the seller having the option of selecting the origin supplied, SAGO governor Ahmad Al-Fares said in a statement. Average price paid was $365.14/t c&f. London and Matif followed global markets lower.
130kt of soybeans sold to China on USDA daily reporting. Export sales still remain subdued. Data to the 25th Nov 21 showed total soybean commitments at 37.17mmt versus 52.27mmt the same time last year. Bearish news on the long-term soybean market sentiment with South American prospects showing good growing conditions with Argentina boosting crop conditions as of 1st Dec-21 to 88% compared to 67% a week earlier. A lot of market chatter over Biden’s expected diplomatic boycott of the Olympics and China’s rebuttal. News is expected on US renewable fuel mandates and eligibility for credits in the coming days. Ethanol production remains strong, offering underlying support to corn prices.
Contact the ADMISI Grains and Oilseeds Derivatives Brokerage team
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Phone: +44 (0)20 7716 8477 or +44 (0)20 7716 8140 Email: intl.grains@admisi.com
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Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
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