Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks are higher on hope of an EU trade deal. USD is higher. Crude is higher and near $65. Gold is lower. US Midwest should see showers. US Treasury Secretary will meet soon with China counterparts in Switzerland. He suggested a 90 day extension to trade deal which was to expire Aug 12.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 10.08. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. North and east corn belt rains should help US soybean crop. Most still feel above average US crop and record Brazil crop should eventually weigh on futures. Demand for US soybean remains uncertain. Some estimate US 25/26 crush at 2,570 mil bu vs USDA 2,540 but exports at 1,600 vs USDA 1,740. This could increase 25/26 carryout to closer to 510 vs USDA 310. Brazil basis firmed on talk of Increase China buying, and slowdown in farmer selling. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 100-300 mt old crop vs 271 last week and 250-500 mt new crop vs 529 last week.
CORN
CU is near 4.01. Dalian corn futures were lower. North and east corn belt rains should help US corn crop. Above average US crop and record Brazil crop should continue to weigh on futures. Demand for US corn remains uncertain. Ethanol use is est at 5,600 vs 5,500 this year. Weekly US production was down 1,6 pct vs ly but stocks were up 3 pct vs ly. Some could see exports closer to 2,400 vs USDA 2,675. All this could increase 25/26 carryout to closer to 2,085 vs USDA 1,660. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 60-350 mt old crop vs 97 last week and 250-800 mt new crop vs 565 last week.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.43. KWU is near 5.27. MWU is near 5.90. Russia July exports were only 600 mt vs 2,5 ly. Support is from talk of lower Russia yields and firm cash markets. Resistance is from talk of good summer South Hemisphere crops. Annual US ND wheat crop tour est yield at 47.1 bpa vs same day ly of 53.7 and 5 year ave of 42.5. Some est US wheat carryout at 895. Higher export offset lower feed use. Matif futures dropped second largest in July.
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