Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. No confirmation yet of Trump tweet on China buying US soybeans. US stocks are higher. USD is lower. Crude is lower. IEA est higher Crude supply and lower demand. Gold is higher on talk of US rate cut. Trump will meet Putin on Friday in Alaska with low expectations.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.40. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and RSO were higher. China announced 76 pct anti-dumping duty on Canada canola. Matif RSO lower if Canada dumps RSO into EU. USDA est US 2025 soybean crop at 4,292 mil bu with lower US harvested acres but record high yield. 25/26 soybean carryout was est at 290 mil bu vs USDA July 310. USDA dropped 25/26 exports 40 mil bu. USDA increase 24/25 exports 10 mil bu and crush 10. USDA increased SBO supply, domestic use and lowered exports. USDA increased 24/25 soymeal supply and exports. One analyst est US 25/26 soybean exports closer to 1,500 and carryout at 550. Average farm price 8.40 vs USDA 10.10.
CORN
CZ is near 3.95. CZ resistance now 4.00. Large US crop could drop CZ to 3.40. USDA est US 2025 corn crop at a whopping 16,742 mil bu vs USDA July est of 15,705, US 2025/26 corn carryout at 2,117 mil bu vs USDA July 1,660. US corn yield was est at record 188.8. Harvest aces were increased to 88.7 mil vs 86.8 in July. US 2 week Midwest forecast is warm with normal rain. USDA increased 25/26 feed and residual 250 mil bu, FSI 95 and exports 200. One analyst est US 25/26 corn exports closer to 2,450 and carryout at 2,725. Their average farm price us 3.40 vs USDA 3.90. USDA also increased sorghum crop 24 mil bu to 443 mil vs 377 ly.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.26. KWZ is near 5.30. MWZ is near 5.98. USDA est US 2025 wheat crop at 1,927 mil bu vs USDA July est of 1,929. HRW, SRW higher, HRS and White lower. US 2025/26 wheat carryout was lowered to 869 mil bu vs USDA July 890. USDA increased HRW feed use 5 mil bu and exports 25 mil bu but lowered HRS feed 5 mil bu. USDA dropped World crop 2 mmt. Higher EU could not offset lower Argentina and China. USDA est World trade at 213 mmt vs 207 ly. Some feel this is 8-10 too high which could increase exporter wheat stocks.
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