Global Ag News For Aug 12.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China Escalates Canada Trade Spat With More Canola Levies

China will implement more levies on Canadian rapeseed after an anti-dumping probe, escalating a trade spat that’s disrupted crop flows.

The Asian nation plans to impose a 75.8% duty from Aug. 14 after a preliminary ruling that Canadian imports constitute dumping, according to a statement from China’s commerce ministry. Benchmark futures in New York tumbled as much as 4% following the announcement.

Earlier this year, Beijing imposed a 100% tariff on rapeseed oil and meal from the North American nation, where the crop is known as canola, in response to Canadian levies on Chinese-made electric vehicles, steel and aluminum. The latest measures leave Ottawa battling trade wars on two fronts, following the implementation of duties from President Donald Trump.

China’s probe found Canada’s rapeseed sector received significant government subsidies, and supply and demand was distorted, a separate statement from the commerce ministry shows. Beijing will continue the investigation and make a final decision based on its findings.

The move could throttle trade flows and threaten supplies of rapeseed meal, a key animal feed ingredient considered essential for China’s massive aquaculture sector. Beijing has been making efforts to diversify its supply, tapping producers from Australia to India.

The Asian nation imported 6.39 million tons of rapeseed last year, with almost of all of the shipments coming from Canada, according to Chinese customs data. The trade was worth more than $3 billion.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 5 3/4 in SRW, down 5 1/2 in HRW, down 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 4; Soybeans down 12 1/2; Soymeal down $3.20; Soyoil down 0.42.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 3 1/2 in SRW, down 3 3/4 in HRW, down 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans up 11 1/4; Soymeal up $1.70; Soyoil up 0.09.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 14 in SRW, down 12 3/4 in HRW, down 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 10; Soybeans up 9 1/2; Soymeal up $11.00; Soyoil down 2.16.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.3% in SRW, down 8.0% in HRW, down 3.5% in HRS; Corn is down 17.0%; Soybeans down 0.9%; Soymeal down 9.7%; Soyoil up 34.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans down 30 yuan; Soymeal up 5; Soyoil up 50; Palm oil up 216; Corn unchanged — Malaysian Palm is up 16.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 16 ringgit (+0.37%) at 4400.

There were changes in registrations (-171 Soybeans, 79 Soyoil). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 590 Soybeans; 746 Soyoil; 1,665 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 11 were: SRW Wheat down 10,064 contracts, HRW Wheat down 3,187, Corn down 36,749, Soybeans down 4,506, Soymeal up 4,746, Soyoil down 1,694.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 11 Aug 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warmer weather is expected across the U.S. this week, with continued wet conditions in the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Eastern regions
• SOUTH AMERICA: Wet conditions persist across Argentina’s Pampas, while Brazil is likely to see below-normal rainfall over this week
• EUROPE: Heat risks persist across Europe this week, accompanied by dry spells
• ASIA: Asia stays cooler than normal temperatures; wet spells likely over Southeast this week

 

MILDER WEATHER TO REDUCE COLD RISKS ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA IN MID/LATE AUGUST

What to Watch:

• Low temperatures last week may have impacted coffee crops in Southeast Brazil but had a neutral effect on Pampas wheat.
• Temperatures will moderate across all crop areas of South America, accompanied by seasonally dry conditions
• The upcoming weather will support completion of the second-crop corn harvest and will reduce cold risk in SE Brazil

  

Northern Plains: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Midwest West: Isolated to scattered showers south Tuesday-Wednesday, north Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday.

Midwest East: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for 8/11 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 500 corn, sellers of 11,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,500 soymeal, and sellers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn.
• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: An importer group in the Philippines is believed on Friday to have bought around 50,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat, expected to be sourced from Australia.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 45,200 metric tons of rice to be sourced from Vietnam and Thailand
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.492m Tons of Corn for Export, 518k of Soybeans

In week ending Aug. 7, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 365k tons vs 690k the previous wk, 669k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 518k tons vs 628k the previous wk, 351k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,492k tons vs 1,285k the previous wk, 986k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Aug. 7

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Aug. 7 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Mexico was the top destination for soybeans, corn and wheat inspections

 

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest 88% Done as of Aug. 7: Agrural

Compares with 81% a week earlier and 97% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• Mato Grosso is entering the final stretch of work, while in other states, machinery is moving quickly
  • Expectation is that the later areas will finish harvesting by Aug. 20, AgRural says

 

Extreme Weather Continues to Hamper China Crop Production: CASDE

Adverse weather from heat waves to excessive rains have disrupted crop growth in key production regions in China, the country’s agriculture ministry said in a monthly report.

• Heat and inadequate rains have affected corn growth in parts of northern and northwestern China, with further damage possible, the ministry said in its China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report
• Extreme rains have also hurt sugarcane and beet in Yunnan province and Inner Mongolia region since July
• Still, the agency kept its forecasts for production, demand and imports for corn, cotton, soybeans, and edible oils for the 2025-26 season steady versus July
  • China lowered its estimates on edible oils imports for the 2024-25 year that ends in September, as high prices of imported palm oil and sufficient supplies of domestic soybean oil curb inbound shipments

 

Sown areas in Russia’s agricultural sector decrease 1.1% in 2025, areas under grain down 5.1% – Rosstat data

Rosstat has published the spring survey data on sown areas, according to which this year’s crop plantings decreased 1.1%, including a 5.1% decline for grain and leguminous crops compared to the spring survey data of 2024.

As reported in the agency’s bulletin, the sown areas for agricultural crops at farms of all categories (agricultural organizations, farmers and private household plots) amounted to 79.298 million hectares in 2025, compared to 80.184 million ha in 2024.

Plantings of grain and leguminous crops decreased to 43.796 million ha from 46.127 million ha. This includes wheat, which dropped to 26.904 million ha from 28.506 million ha; barley, to 6.653 million ha from 6.96 million ha; rye, to 451,000 ha from 668,000 ha; corn for grain, to 2.588 million ha from 2.625 million ha; and triticale, to 91,000 ha from 101,000 ha.

In particular, areas under winter grains decreased to 17.011 million ha from 17.495 million ha, including wheat, which fell to 15.815 million ha from 16.134 million ha.

Spring grain and leguminous crops were planted on 26.785 million ha in 2025, compared to 28.614 million ha in 2024. Among these, wheat plantings decreased to 11.089 million ha from 12.372 million ha, and barley to 6.005 million ha from 6.343 million ha.

According to Rosstat, sown areas for oats increased to 1.74 million ha from 1.708 million ha, while millet decreased to 248,000 ha from 292,000 ha, buckwheat fell to 746,000 ha from 1.092 million ha, and rice dropped to 199,000 ha from 207,000 ha. Areas under leguminous crops grew to 4.105 million ha from 3.913 million ha. Among these, pea plantings decreased to 2.159 million ha from 2.221 million ha in 2024.

The area under oilseeds increased to 21.065 million ha from 18.86 million ha. Sunflower accounted for 11.043 million ha, compared to 9.755 million ha in 2024. Areas under soybean grew to 4.731 million ha from 4.294 million ha, and rapeseed expanded to 2.96 million ha from 2.726 million ha.

Sugar beet was sown on 1.202 million ha, compared to 1.169 million ha the previous year; potatoes on 986,000 ha, down from 1.009 million ha; and open-ground vegetables on 457,000 ha, down from 466,000 ha.

These data do not include figures for the new regions, Rosstat said.

 

Dry weather to help Ukraine speed up grain harvest, meteorologist says

There will be no rain across most of Ukraine this week, allowing farmers to speed up grain harvesting, which is significantly lagging last year’s pace, a state weather forecaster said on Tuesday.

The Ukrainian economy ministry said last week that the pace of harvesting was 26% slower than last year and farmers had threshed a total of 19.9 million metric tons of various grains from the new 2025 harvest as of August 7.

“There was too much moisture in western Ukraine, and agricultural machinery simply could not get out into the fields. But in August, there will be less precipitation throughout Ukraine,” Natalia Ptukha told Ukrainian national television.

Ukraine’s largest farm producers’ union UAC said this month that torrential rains across western, northern and central regions of the country had significantly slowed the harvest, causing a drop in export rates.

The economy ministry this week revised up its 2025 grain harvest outlook to 56 million metric tons from the previous estimate of 54 million tons due to a higher-than-expected corn harvest.

 

South America’s strong supply and rapid exports could lower Chinese demand for US new crop soybeans

The abundant supply has supported the long-tail effect of Brazil’s soybean exports. Following the peak export season (March-June), July shipments remained elevated with 11.2 million metric tons (MMT) exported according to LSEG trade flows (12.26 MMT by Brazilian Customs data), up 22% year over year and marking a historical high for the month. Total exports from February through July reached 76.94 MMT (a 7.7% year-on-year increase), with exports to China rising from 50.8 MMT to 55.7 MMT, indicating the fastest pace of shipments to the leading soybean importer. Additionally, Brazil’s soy harvest reached 169.26 MMT this year according to LSEG agriculture research, up 21.5 MMT from last year, ensuring adequate supply for strong exports for the remainder of the 2024/25 period. We project August-January exports will remain robust, surpassing last year’s levels. 2024/25 Brazil’s total soybean exports are projected at 108.3 MMT (up 11.3 MMT from the prior season). Exports for 2025/26 are anticipated to reach 112 MMT, subject to the developments in US-China trade talks.

Argentina’s soybean exports reached 1.24 MMT in July, with 92% shipped to China. In August, the strong exports to China continued, totaling 346,000 metric tons as of August 11. On July 26, the Argentine President announced a reduction in export taxes for soybeans (33% to 26%), corn (12% to 9.5%), and soymeal and oil (31% to 24.5%), which may increase competitiveness of Argentine agricultural products and influence farmers’ planting decisions moving forward. Forecasts for Argentina’s exports have been raised to 6.0 MMT for 2024/25 and 5.0 MMT for 2025/26.

In the United States, 2024/25 soybean exports are estimated at 50.9 MMT, up 0.3 MMT from our July estimate. Exports to China fell by around 2.0 MMT year-on-year to 22.48 MMT, even though Brazil’s supply ran low in late 2024, boosting China’s purchases of US soybeans early this year. Looking ahead to 2025/26, Chinese demand for US soybeans is expected to decline further from 2024/25 levels. This decline is attributable to China’s record-large purchases of Brazilian soybeans over the past six months and continued high Brazilian supply. As of July 31, China had not bought any US new-crop soybeans, compared to sales of 562,000 metric tons at the same time in 2024, 3.75 MMT in 2023, and 8.67 MMT in 2022. Consequently, we forecast 2025/26 US soybean exports to decrease to 47.1 MMT, despite favorable weather conditions supporting US soybean production.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Imports grow; prices in Brazil continue to move down

Wheat imports continue to increase in July, and the volume accumulated in 12 months is almost 20% higher than that in the period before. Meanwhile, domestic values continue to move down.

According to data from Secex, Brazil imported 616.91 thousand tons, 26.7% more than in June/25, but 4.3% below that registered in July/2024. In 12 months (from August/24 to July/25), 6.83 million were imported, 19.9% more than in the period between August/23 and July/24.

Based on data from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), between July 28 and August 1st, the import parity for the wheat from Argentina delivered to Paraná state was at USD 249.50/ton. Considering the average of the US dollar in that period, at BRL 5.5820, the wheat imported was sold at BRL 1,392.74/ton, while for the Brazilian wheat traded in Paraná, the average was at BRL 1,471.68/ton, according to data from Cepea. In Rio Grande do Sul, the price of the product from Argentina closed at USD 233.58/ton, which accounts for BRL 1,303.87/ton – against BRL 1,291.78/ton on the average of the state calculated by Cepea.

According to data from Cepea, between August 1st and 8, in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values upped 0.21% in Rio Grande do Sul, but moved down 0.58% in Santa Catarina, 1.39% in São Paulo and 0.07% in Paraná. The prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) decreased 1.74% in Santa Catarina, 0.21% in Paraná and remained stable in Rio Grande do Sul. The US dollar dropped 1.95% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.441 on August 8.

As for byproducts, most trades have been closed at lower values, due to the low demand and to the price decrease of the wheat grain.

 

Indonesia Eyes 175,000 Tons a Month for Local Cooking Oil Supply

The trade ministry urged producers to maintain distribution of packaged cooking oil under the Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) program of at least 175,000 tons a month until the end of the year, says Nawandaru Dwi Putra, director of domestic market development on Monday.

• Govt asks companies to ensure efficient and effective distribution and monitor supply to prevent rising prices at consumer level
• Supply of government-branded cooking oil known as Minyakita reached 204,559 tons in July, and 46,263 tons from Aug. 1-8
• Avg. price of Minyakita was at 16,699 rupiah/liter in first week of August, -0.04% m/m

 

Indonesia’s Pertamina delivers first used cooking oil aviation fuel

PT Kilang Pertamina Internasional, the refinery unit of Indonesian state energy company Pertamina, has started its first shipments of sustainable aviation fuel made partly from used cooking oil, the company said on Tuesday.

The SAF will be used in a flight from the capital Jakarta to Denpasar, Bali, scheduled for later this month by Pelita Air, an airline subsidiary of Pertamina, the refinery unit said.

Around 32 kilolitres of the SAF from its Cilacap refinery have been prepared for the flight. Pertamina plans to deliver 1.7 million litres of the fuel to Soekarno-Hatta airport in Jakarta, the statement said.

Pertamina’s Cilacap refinery has SAF production capacity of around 1,400 kl per day, with used cooking oil content of 2% to 3%, the company said.

 

Argentina raises biofuel prices for domestic market

The Argentine government on Monday raised biofuel prices for the domestic market, according to two resolutions published in the official gazette.

The energy secretariat set a minimum price for sugarcane-based bioethanol at 824,044 pesos per liter ($0.62), up from the previous price of 800.043 pesos.

Meanwhile, the minimum price for corn-based bioethanol rose to 755,258 pesos per liter ($0.57) from 733.26 pesos.

The price of biodiesel intended for mandatory blending with diesel was set at a minimum of 1,354,507 pesos per ton ($1.021), up from 1,302,411 pesos.

The prices will be in effect for transactions made during August and until new prices are published, the government said.

 

Sao Martinho approves 1.1 billion real expansion of corn ethanol plant in Goias state

• APPROVES EXPANSION OF CORN-BASED ETHANOL PLANT IN QUIRINOPOLIS, GOIAS STATE – FILING
• MOVE TO REQUIRE ESTIMATED INVESTMENT OF 1.1 BILLION REAIS
• EXPANSION TO ADD CAPACITY TO PROCESS 635K TONS OF CORN PER YEAR, PRODUCE 270K CUBIC METERS OF ETHANOL

 

India’s ethanol drive imperils its push for edible oil self-sufficiency

• India diverts rice, corn to achieve ethanol blending targets
• Grain-based ethanol-making yields protein-rich byproduct DDGS
• Cheaper DDGS replaces oilmeals, reducing oilseed prices
• Oilseed price drop prompts farmers to shift to other crops
• Lower oilseed output to lift India’s edible oil imports

India’s drive to produce more ethanol is leading its farmers to switch away from growing oilseeds, undermining government efforts in the world’s largest buyer of cooking oils to reduce costly imports.

Helped by record corn and rice harvests, New Delhi is using more of the grains to make ethanol and meet its target of blending 20% of the biofuel additive with gasoline. The process, however, produces Distillers Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS), a protein-rich byproduct that is flooding the animal feed market.

The DDGS glut is weakening demand for oilmeals, depressing oilseed prices and prompting farmers in the South Asian nation to plant more corn and rice in place of soybeans and groundnuts – despite New Delhi’s push to grow more of the oilseeds to ease imports.

DDGS production in India has soared some 13-fold over the past two years to an estimated 5.5 million tons by 2025, according to industry officials.

“DDGS is a pain in the neck,” said Aashish Acharya, vice president at Patanjali Foods Ltd PAFO.NS, a leading soybean processor. “Feed makers are substituting oilmeals with DDGS since it is cheaper.”

The shift is visible in government sowing data. As of August 8, oilseed acreage – including soybean and groundnut – was down 4% from last year, while corn area jumped 10.5% to a record high.

Madhukar Londhe, a farmer in Nashik in the western state of Maharashtra, said he had cut his soybean area to one acre from six, planting the rest with corn – which has the added benefit of providing fodder from its stalks for his five milking cows.

Nearly two dozen farmers in the area that Reuters spoke to said they had made a similar switch.

“Soybean prices were too low, so I couldn’t even cover my costs in the past two years. Corn did better for me last year, so I’ve decided to grow more of it,” Londhe said.

 

 

 

 

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