Ag Market View for August 8.25

SOYBEANS

Prices were mostly lower with beans off $.05-$.07, meal was mixed and very near unchanged while bean oil backed up late closing 80-90 points lower.  Beans spreads were mixed while product spreads firmed.  Both Sept-25 and Nov-25 bean futures closed near session lows.  Resistance for Sept-25 meal is at this week’s high at $282 with the 50 day MA just above that at $283.10.  Sept-25 oil violated support at its 50 day MA at 52.88.  Spot board crush margins slipped $.01 ½ to $2.20 ½ bu. with soybean oil PV falling to an 8 week low at 48.8%.  New crop crush margins fell $.04 to $2.17 ½.  There is potential for heavy rain and isolated flooding across areas of the NC Midwest this weekend.  Powerful storms brought heavy rain, hail and potentially damaging winds overnight across North Dakota.  Crop damage at this point is unknown.  Week 2 of the outlook leans above to much above normal temperatures with normal to above normal precipitation.Expectations are for little change to the old crop soybean balance sheet with stocks likely hold close to 350 mil. bu.  We’re slightly lower at 340 mil. looking for an uptick in crush.  We look for new crop stocks to rise to 355 mil. bu. with increased production and slightly lower usage.  Without a trade deal with the US, China has been actively buying soybeans and meal from SA origin, paying more than they’d likely have to for US beans.  Still awaiting to see if Pres. Trump extends the current trade truce with China that expires next Tues. the day of the USDA report, or perhaps raises tariffs as they also continue to purchase Russian oil.  With Brazilian soybean plantings just over a month away most forecasts are expecting acres to increase between 1–1.5% this year, among the slowest YOY growth in the past few decades.  Since 1990 soybean production rose 14 times in the August USDA report while falling 20 times with 1 year unchanged.  The largest increase was in 2020 when production rose 290 mil. bu. with yields surging 3.5 bpa to 53.3.