Global Ag News For Aug 7.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Ukraine to ship 300,000 tons barley to China by Aug. 20, farmers union says

Ukraine exported 250,000 metric tons of its barley to China in July and is likely to export another 250,000 to 300,000 tons in August, farming union UAC said on Thursday.

“The last barley export shipments to China are due August 15-20,” UAC, Ukraine’s largest farmers’ union, said in a report.

UAC has said the total volume of barley contracted for export for July-August reached 770,000 tons.

Ukrainian analyst Barva Invest said last month that Chinese companies contracted to buy up to 700,000 tons of the 2025 Ukrainian barley crop. Ukraine is a large barley producer and exporter and certified by Beijing to supply barley to the Chinese market.

China was the main importer of Ukrainian barley in the 2023/24 season, with an import volume of 702,000 tons, said Ukrainian grain traders union UGA.

UAC, however, says traders may have further difficulties with exports of barley as heavy rains in July significantly slowed harvesting and grain quality, and the crop will not be a record.

Farmers harvested around 3.6 million tons of barley as of early August while the overall crop could reach 4.5 to 5 million tons.

“This volume will not be enough for us and since most of the barley is consumed inside Ukraine, there may be a certain deficit starting from December,” the union said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 4 in SRW, up 5 1/4 in HRW, up 2 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans up 1/4; Soymeal up $0.90; Soyoil down 0.23.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 6 in SRW, down 4 1/2 in HRW, down 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 7 1/4; Soybeans down 5; Soymeal up $0.90; Soyoil down 0.47.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 10 3/4 in SRW, down 9 1/2 in HRW, down 6 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 10; Soybeans down 4 1/2; Soymeal up $6.20; Soyoil down 1.35.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.4% in SRW, down 8.0% in HRW, down 4.2% in HRS; Corn is down 16.8%; Soybeans down 3.7%; Soymeal down 12.4%; Soyoil up 35.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans up 10 yuan; Soymeal down 7; Soyoil up 66; Palm oil up 8; Corn up 11 — Malaysian Palm is down 26.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 26 ringgit (-0.61%) at 4241.

There were changes in registrations (-16 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 761 Soybeans; 697 Soyoil; 1,719 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 6 were: SRW Wheat up 13,199 contracts, HRW Wheat down 3,574, Corn down 3,344, Soybeans up 5,141, Soymeal up 1,066, Soyoil down 927.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 07 AUGUST 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: The likelihood of heatwave expansion is increasing across the U.S. Midwest during the week of August 18–25
• SOUTH AMERICA: Warm and dry conditions over the past 7 days in Central Brazil supported corn harvest progress and helped reduce earlier delays
• EAST ASIA: Heavy rainfall is currently affecting southern parts of the North China Plain, creating favorable conditions for spring and summer crops in critical growth stages.
• AUSTRALIA: Beneficial rainfall occurred across key wheat-growing regions in Southeast Australia, with additional precipitation likely over the next 10 days
• TROPICS: The probability of tropical development in the Central Atlantic remains high this week, although the potential impact on the U.S. East Coast is becoming less likely

 

Northern Plains: Soil moisture continues to build across the region with multiple rounds of rain moving through earlier this week. Corn and soybeans are benefiting from the consistent rainfall but it is slowing down winter wheat harvest and potentially degrading maturing spring wheat. Late this week into early next week will remain active with scattered showers and storms moving through. Temperatures will drop below average late this week behind a cold front and remain on the cooler side going into next week.

Central/Southern Plains: High pressure is keeping conditions on the drier side across the Southern Plains while the Central Plains saw spotty showers earlier this week. As fronts continue to move through the Northern Plains, some precipitation may drift into the Central Plains, but it will be spotty. Recent rainfall has kept conditions mostly favorable for corn and soybeans, but western areas could use more rain.

Midwest: Showers early this week were spotty but more widespread showers will tag western areas on Wednesday. Temperatures will also trend warmer through the second half of this week. By this weekend, a stronger front will push into the region providing scattered showers and a slight cool down with temperatures closer to average in the west. The east will remain relatively dry until early next week when the cold front pushes through. Soil moisture remains in good shape for most areas as corn and soybeans advance through their reproductive stages.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Conditions have been relatively dry in the Northern Delta while a stalled front has led to showers along the Gulf Coast. Drier conditions in the north have helped maturing crops. Through this weekend, rainfall will remain confined to Gulf Coast before a cold front could provide showers farther north next week.

Canadian Prairies: Scattered rain showers have been impacting the Southern Prairies earlier this week but it’s coming too late for the maturing crops in the area. By this weekend, scattered showers are forecast to spread into the Northern Prairies and the rain will again be too late for damaged crops. As the rain spreads north, it could help suppress some wildfires in forested regions.

China: Central China, and the North China Plain in particular, has had more issues with heat and dryness than other areas of the country this season. A couple of stronger fronts could produce moderate to heavy rain through the weekend in the North China Plain, favorable for corn and soybeans before rainfall looks more isolated during the first half of next week.

 

The player sheet for 8/6 had funds: net sellers of 5,000 corn, sellers of 6,500 soybeans, and sellers of 4,000 soymeal.

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender seeking up to 140,000 tons from South America or South Africa.
• WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins. The deadline for the submission of price offers in the tender is August 12.
• WHEAT OFFERS: The lowest offer in the tender on Thursday from leading South Korean animal feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat was believed to be $262.94 a metric ton c&f,
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: A group of importers in Thailand is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in an international tender for about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat.
• NO PURCHASE IN BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of barley on Wednesday, in which only one trading house participated.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 45,200 metric tons of rice to be sourced from Vietnam and Thailand.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending July 31.

• Corn est. range 1,400k – 2,400k tons, with avg of 1,850k
• Soybean est. range 350k – 1,200k tons, with avg of 675k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 3.9% to 23.756M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 24.646 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.081m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.082m

 

Modi Says India Won’t Compromise on Farmers’ Interests

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he will face whatever it takes and is ready to pay a heavy price to protect the interests of the country’s farmers, fishermen and dairy sector.

• India will never compromise on the interests of its farmers, he said at a conference in New Delhi on Thursday
• Farmers’ interest is “top priority” for the country, Modi said, adding that his government is constantly working toward increasing earnings of peasants, reducing farming costs and diversify their income sources

 

China July Soybean Imports: Customs

General Administration of Customs says on website.

• Soybean imports in July 11.666m tons
  • Soybean imports YTD rose 4.6% y/y to 61.035m tons
• Edible vegetable oil imports in July 534,000 tons
  • Edible vegetable oil imports YTD fell 9.9% y/y to 3.721m tons
• Meat (including offal) imports in July 533,000 tons
  • Meat (including offal) imports YTD fell 2.5% y/y to 3.737m tons
• Fertilizer exports in July 5.704m tons
  • Fertilize               r exports YTD rose 45.7% y/y to 22.831m tons

 

China soybean imports hit record July high on strong Brazil exports, US trade uncertainties

China’s soybean imports rose to the highest ever for the month of July, a Reuters calculation of customs data showed on Thursday, driven by strong Brazilian exports and ongoing China-U.S. trade uncertainties that have raised supply concerns.

The world’s largest soybean consumer brought in 11.67 million metric tons in July, data from the General Administration of Customs showed, up 18.5% from 9.85 million tons a year earlier, and above analysts’ expectations of 10.48 million tons.

“This suggests the market is preparing for potential uncertainties arising from China-U.S. trade tensions,” said Rosa Wang, an analyst at Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI, who expects imports to remain above 10 million tons in August and September.

Most beans are expected to come from top soy supplier Brazil.

“Brazil’s abundant soybean production has provided a strong supply foundation. Due to its bumper harvest, the peak supply period for Brazilian soybeans is expected to be longer than in previous years, remaining at a high level leading up to the fourth quarter,” said Wan Chengzhi, an analyst at Capital Jingdu Futures.

Shipments for the first seven months of the year totaled 61.04 million tons, up 4.6% year-on-year, the Customs data showed.

July imports were down 4.8% from June, the data showed.

Concerns over the trade disputes between the U.S. and China have fuelled soybean supply fears for the fourth quarter, with local feed mills on Tuesday booking around 1.9 million tons of soymeal for October to January deliveries, the biggest single-day purchase of 2025.

China has yet to book any U.S. soybean cargoes for the fourth quarter as buyers await the outcome of China-U.S. trade negotiations.

“Overall, a temporary mismatch between supply and demand for imported soybeans in China’s domestic market may occur in the fourth quarter,” Wan said.

Still, China is facing a soymeal supply glut, as record imports earlier in 2025 combined with weak demand from animal feed producers have increased domestic soymeal inventories, Reuters has previously reported.

 

Brazil July Agriculture, Mining Exports by Volume: MDIC

Following is a summary of key Brazilian agriculture and mining exports by volume, from the Brazilian Trade Ministry.

• Corn exports fell 32% in July from a year ago
• Coffee exports fell 20% y/y

 

Brazil’s Soybean Shipments Hit Record in July, Ministry Says

Brazilian soybean exports rose 9% to 12.3 million tons last month from a year earlier, the Ministry of Development, Industry and Trade said Wednesday.

• Soy-export revenues last month increased 1.2% to U$5 billion
  • Avg price paid per ton declined 7.1%
• Brazilian soybean exports to China reached record 9.6 million tons, 7.4% y/y
  • Exports to China from January to July hit record 57.9 million tons, up 5% y/y
• Brazil’s corn exports fell 32% y/y to 2.4 million tons

 

Brazilian soybean products could benefit after Argentina tax shift, industry group says

Brazilian exports of processed soybean products could benefit from recent changes to Argentina’s export tax structure, which slightly reduced the competitiveness of the Spanish-speaking country, Brazilian industry group Abiove said on Wednesday.

At the end of July, Argentine President Javier Milei’s administration cut the country’s export tax on soymeal and soybean oil to 24.5% from 31% previously, while the tax on raw soybean exports was reduced to 26% from 33%.

The decision narrows the tax differential between processed soy products and raw beans from 2 percentage points to 1.5, reducing the competitiveness of Argentina’s soymeal and soybean oil, Daniel Furlan Amaral, Abiove’s director of economics and regulatory affairs, said in an interview.

Abiove represents the soy industry in Brazil, which is the world’s second-largest exporter of soymeal and soy oil.

“This differential may seem small, but it has always been what attracted investment into Argentina’s soybean crushing industry,” Amaral said.

“This tax differential is a key factor in Argentina’s industrial competitiveness. It allows the country to maintain relatively lower costs than others,” he said.

Still, the head of Argentina’s grains exporting chamber CIARA-CEC rebuffed the idea the lower export tax could affect the nation’s soy crushing numbers.

“There’s no improvement or loss in the competitiveness of Argentina’s soy milling due to a change in the export duty,” Gustavo Idigoras said.

Argentina is expected to export 30 million metric tons of soymeal in the 2025/26 season, compared with 23.2 million tons from Brazil, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Argentina’s lead in soy oil exports is even greater, with 6.6 million tons projected versus 1.3 million tons from Brazil, according to USDA.

The change could open new competitive opportunities for Brazil, which exports soymeal to many of the same markets targeted by Argentina, Amaral said.

“Brazilian soymeal becomes more competitive. If Argentina now has less margin to benefit from the tax difference, Brazil gains a bit more competitiveness,” he said.

The new tax structure could also benefit Argentine farmers and boost exports of raw soybeans in the coming years, Amaral said.

“In my view, this opens the possibility of revitalizing soybean production in Argentina. It’s not something that will happen overnight, but it signals that Argentines may invest more in agricultural technology,” he said.

 

Palm Oil Seen Trading Around MYR4,000/Ton in 2025: SD Guthrie

Palm oil will likely trade around the range of 4,000 ringgit for the rest of the year, with prices underpinned by Indonesia’s robust biodiesel policy, according to the world’s biggest planter by acreage SD Guthrie Bhd.

• Improved weather conditions, with 30% chance of La Nina and minimal El Nino risks, are expected to support palm oil output in Indonesia in the second half of the year, Group MD Mohamad Helmy Othman Basha said in a media briefing in Kuala Lumpur on Thursday
• Company’s new business pillars of industrial parks and renewable energy expected to contribute to around 700-800 million ringgit, equivalent of about 30% of its bottom-line by 2030, Mohamad Helmy said
  • Company will sign several more agreements for new business pillars in the next six months
  • Targets its first 15MW corporate green power program (CGPP) solar plant in Kedah to be operational by 4Q
• The European Union’s decision to grant Indonesia with zero tariffs for one million tons of crude palm oil a year may boost the top grower’s exports to the bloc by more than 50% in the next three to four years
  • NOTE: Indonesia Says EU to Exempt Some of Its Palm Oil From Tariffs
• Soybean use for biofuel expected to rise 23% with the new blending mandate in US; tighter soybean supply likely to create demand for canola and palm

 

South America’s Top Beef Shipper Built US Stocks Before Tariffs

The top exporter of beef from South America has built up inventories in the US ahead of President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on Brazil, according to its top finance boss.

Minerva SA rushed to send beef from Brazil to the US, betting that tariffs will further restrict American supplies and boost prices, Chief Financial Officer Edison Ticle said in an interview on Wednesday. The move helped drive overall sales of Brazilian beef to a record in the first half of the year, government data showed.

A severe shortage of cattle in the US, the world’s largest beef-producing country, has sent prices soaring, making it an increasingly attractive market for Brazilian suppliers. Minerva expects prices to rise further if exports from Brazil to the US are cut off. The company said it can still access the American market from its operations in Paraguay, Uruguay and Argentina, which are subject to lower tariffs.

Minerva posted record second-quarter earnings, beating even the highest analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

 

China Seeks Reduction in Pig Breeding Herds to Ease Oversupply

China is urging top pig farmers to scale back breeding herds by about 2%, the latest push to tackle oversupply in the country’s food sector, which has sparked concerns over deflation.

Farmers’ representatives are expected to gather next week to discuss effective ways to shrink sow herds by 1 million, along with other measures to rein in pork production, China’s state-backed official husbandry association said in a notice.

China has organized a slew of meetings to discuss reining in pork production recently, signaling Beijing’s commitment to support prices of the country’s most consumed meat. As with other industries, authorities have called on the husbandry sector to tackle oversupply and be prudent with adding new production capacity.

The world’s top pork producer and consumer had 40.43 million sows by the end of June, according to official data, which fell within the acceptable range outlined by regulations. Still, consumption of the meat has been tepid as a slowing economy strained consumers’ purchasing power. Pork prices have slumped nearly 20% in the past year.

Next week’s meeting will also discuss how to control the weight of pigs to be slaughtered, and reduce secondary fattening, according to the association’s notice.

 

Bunge Set to Buy Soy-Crush Business From International Flavors

Agribusiness giant Bunge Global SA has agreed to buy a soy-crushing, concentrates and lecithin business from ingredient company International Flavors & Fragrances Inc.

• IFF announced the deal while reporting quarterly earnings late Tuesday
• Financial details were not disclosed; transaction is expected to close by year-end
• Business employs around 250 globally

 

 

 

 

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