Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. US stocks are higher. USD is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is lower. Silver, Copper, Coffee, Cocoa, live cattle, feeder cattle and hogs are higher. US tariffs could slow World economy. World Weather LH August weather could see below normal rains in corn belt with normal to above temps.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 9.71. SX is near 9..91. SU chart support 9.60. Dalian soybean and soymeal were lower. Soyoil and palmoil were higher. There were 518 soymeal deliveries with commercial issuing 442. Soybean futures are lower on negative US/China politics and talk of higher US supply. Soyoil has dropped on profit taking. Brazil soybean basis supported by origination challenges although Feb-July soybean exports were a record 31 mmt. Global destination buyers are adding to soymeal long-term coverage with prices near decade lows. Brazil soybean crushers talking shutdown/slowing due to poor margins.
CORN
CU is near 3.79. CZ is near 4.00. Dalian corn futures were lower. Talk of higher US supply and lower US exports continues to offer resistance to futures. US domestic basis is lower on talk of potential increase in farmer selling. Brazil futures are lower on talk of higher supply. Matif is also lower. Black Sea is turning warmer and drier. CU-CZ spread at -21 suggesting good supply vs demand. USDA report August 12. Recent estimates of higher US corn yield is negative to prices and spreads. Lower wheat prices are potential higher feed use is also weighing on corn prices.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.06. WZ is near 5.27. KWU is near 5.03. KWZ is near 5.24. MWU is near 5.71. MWZ is near 5.95. Stop loss selling increased below key support. Funds should roll wheat shorts up to Dec. Matif wheat futures are lower and testing last month contract lows. Australia crop conditions continue to improve. Large exporter supply should increase export Oct-Mar competition which is bearish. Wheat tech signals going from bad to worse. Fundamentals are going from bad to worse. US wheat export pace suggest total exports near 23.1 mmt just shy of best exports (24 mmt) since 2020.
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