Global Ag News For Aug 5.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Japan sets record high temperatures, worries mount over rice crops

Japan recorded its highest-ever temperature of 41.8 degrees Celsius (107.2 degrees Fahrenheit) on Tuesday, prompting the government to advise residents to stay indoors and promise steps to ease weather-related damage to rice crops.

Readings in the eastern city of Isesaki, in Gunma prefecture, surpassed the previous high of 41.2 C marked last week in the western city of Tamba in Hyogo prefecture, the country’s meteorological agency said.

So far this summer, more than 53,000 people have been taken to hospital for heat stroke, according to the Fire and Disaster Management Agency.

“Today is murderously hot,” said 63-year-old auto worker Takeshi Ishikawa, who was filling his water bottle at a fountain in central Tokyo. “If it gets to 42 degrees, it would be hotter than my bath that I prepare at 40 degrees.”

Average temperatures across Japan have continued to climb after marking a record high in July for the third year in a row, while the northeastern region along the Sea of Japan has registered critically low levels of rainfall, raising concerns over the rice harvest.

High temperatures have caused a proliferation of stink bugs in some rice-growing areas, even as the government is set to officially adopt a new policy on Tuesday of increased rice production to prevent future shortages.

“We need to act with speed and a sense of crisis to prevent damage” from high temperatures, Farm Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said at a press conference. The government will offer support for pest control and measures to tackle drought, he said.

Extreme heat in 2023 had damaged the quality of rice, causing an acute shortage last year that was exacerbated by the government’s misreading of supply and demand. That led to historically high prices of the all-important staple food, causing a national crisis.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 in SRW, down 2 3/4 in HRW, up 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal up $1.30; Soyoil up 0.03.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 1 in SRW, down 4 1/2 in HRW, up 2 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 5 1/4; Soybeans up 7; Soymeal up $5.80; Soyoil up 0.15.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 7 1/2 in SRW, down 12 in HRW, down 3 in HRS; Corn is down 8 1/4; Soybeans up 7 1/4; Soymeal up $10.30; Soyoil down 0.69.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 6.5% in SRW, down 8.0% in HRW, down 3.5% in HRS; Corn is down 15.9%; Soybeans down 3.0%; Soymeal down 11.2%; Soyoil up 38.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans down 5 yuan; Soymeal up 9; Soyoil up 48; Palm oil up 132; Corn down 29 — Malaysian Palm is up 103.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 103 ringgit (+2.46%) at 4290.

There were changes in registrations (-39 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 761 Soybeans; 697 Soyoil; 1,723 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 4 were: SRW Wheat up 18,022 contracts, HRW Wheat up 217, Corn down 3,537, Soybeans down 7,096, Soymeal down 3,328, Soyoil down 261.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 05 AUGUST 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Mild temperatures with occasional wet spells over the U.S. Midwest in the next 10 days will favor corn/soybean development
• SOUTH AMERICA: Advancement of a cold air mass in the Argentinian Pampas will result in local frost but should be neutral for wheat crop in dormant stage
• BLACK SEA: Moderate temperatures and dry conditions will support wheat crop harvest across Ukraine in mid-August
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Rains are likely to intensify in the next week across Indonesia/Malaysia palm oil regions and reduce local soil moisture deficits
• TROPICS: Chances for tropical development this week across Central Atlantic are growing, with potential impacts on the U.S East Coast during 6-10 day timeframe

 

DRY CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL BRAZIL WILL SUPPORT CORN HARVEST

What to Watch:

• Cool air mass will spread over Argentina and South Brazil this week, with frost events limited to the southern Argentinian Pampas
• Locally heavy rains will be observed in Southern Brazil this week, but the remaining crop areas will be dry

 

Northern Plains: Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through the area this past weekend and will continue to move through the region on a daily basis this week, though organized severe weather is less likely. Showers will be scattered and not widespread, but soil moisture will continue to build, favorable for corn and soybeans, but not for wheat, which will be maturing. Some areas of heavy rain could degrade quality.

Central/Southern Plains: After cooler temperatures this past weekend and a few pockets of thunderstorms in western areas, temperatures will start to rise above average later this week into the weekend. Fronts moving by to the north of the region will provide a few shots of rain, mainly across Nebraska. Rain showers will be much more limited in the Southern Plains this week. Given the recent and steady rainfall, conditions for corn and soybeans are mostly favorable.

Midwest: Temperatures were milder this past weekend while Canadian wildfire smoke degraded air quality. A front from Canada could provide spotty showers to northern areas during the mid-week while temperatures climb above average. By late this week and the weekend, a stronger front will push through the region providing scattered showers and temperatures will once again cool off. Soil moisture still remains in good shape for most areas as corn and soybeans advance through their reproductive stages.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: A stalled front along the Gulf coast provided areas of heavy rain to the region this past weekend. Most of the rainfall this week will remain confined to coastal areas with the stalled front still in the area. Drier conditions in the north have helped maturing crops but if conditions remain too dry, this could cause extra stress and declining crop conditions.

Canadian Prairies: Scattered showers expanded eastward from Alberta this past weekend, but the rain likely wasn’t beneficial enough for mature crops in the south and damaged crops in the north. This week, the bulk of the rainfall will favor southern areas. It won’t be until the upcoming weekend that rainfall could trend north. Any rainfall in the north is likely going to be too late to benefit crops; although, the rain could help suppress wildfires.

Brazil: This past weekend, a front moved through southern areas with lingering rain expected in the area through early this week. There will be a brief break in the rainfall in this area before another front pushes through late this week. The rain will likely disrupt what’s left of the corn harvest but be beneficial to winter wheat that will start heading. By the upcoming weekend and early next week, a drier stretch could develop.

Argentina: Rain showers this past weekend and early this week will remain confined to the northeast. Central areas are expected to be on the drier side for much of the week and possibly into mid-August as the storm track shifts into northern Argentina and southern Brazil. As vegetative wheat starts to head in early August, additional soil moisture is still needed for the developing crop.

Europe: Precipitation largely favored the central and east this past weekend. This week, the bulk of the fronts will be moving through northern areas. This will maintain or build soil moisture for summer crops but cause some delays to harvest or quality issues may arise in the remaining winter wheat.

Black Sea: Hotter and drier conditions across the east especially have been stressful for pollinating to filling corn. A system lifting northward from the Black Sea may increase showers in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia on Monday, but would likely be scattered and not the steady rainfall that the region needs. Dryness and drought continue to be issues for much of the region and showers will be limited the rest of this week before a larger system may move through during the upcoming weekend.

 

The player sheet for 8/4 had funds: net sellers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,000 corn, sellers of 4,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,500 soymeal, and sellers of 1,500 soyoil.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 45,200 metric tons of rice to be sourced from Vietnam and Thailand.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.208m Tons of Corn for Export, 613k of Soybeans

In week ending July 31, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 600k tons vs 290k the previous wk, 471k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 613k tons vs 428k the previous wk, 267k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,208k tons vs 1,532k the previous wk, 1,272k a yr ago

 

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest 81% Done as of July 31: Agrural

Compares with 68% a week earlier and 95% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• “With the reduction of rainfall in regions that were wetter and more areas ready to harvest, producers have given impetus to the work, which should continue at an intense pace in the coming days,” AgRural says

 

Brazil Soybean Area Seen Up 2% in 2025-26 Season, Celeres Says

Brazilian farmers are expected to plant 48.6m hectares (120m acres) of the oilseed in new season, consulting firm Celeres said in note to clients.

• Production seen at 177.2m metric tons versus 172.8m tons in previous season
• Acreage growth curbed by below-average profit margins, tight credit conditions and little upside in exports to China
• NOTE: Brazilian farmers would typically start planting soybeans in September, with the harvest beginning in January

 

Brazil’s soybean production to rise 5.6% in 2025/26, StoneX says

Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean production is expected to reach 178.2 million metric tons, consultancy StoneX said on Monday, a 5.6% expansion from the previous cycle due to higher planted area and yields.

StoneX raised its forecast for Brazil’s 2024/25 second corn crop to 111.7 million tons, up 3.2% from the previous forecast.

 

Trump Administration Posts Guidance Ahead of Tariff Rollout

President Donald Trump’s expanded reciprocal tariffs will not apply to any products loaded onto a vessel for transport into the US before 12:01 a.m. New York time on Thursday, according to guidance issued by US Customs and Border Protection.

The notice, posted by the federal government on Monday, outlines implementation of the tariffs Trump announced last week, which are expected to ratchet up levies on dozens of trading partners.

Expected exemptions for products under the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement negotiated by the president during his first term are included in the document, as are exemptions for relief items like food, clothing and medicine set to be distributed as aid. So is the president’s threatened penalty of a 40% tariff on goods deemed by the federal government to be transshipped to avoid country-specific duties.

Taken together, the average US tariff rate will rise to 15.2% if rates are implemented as announced, according to Bloomberg Economics. That’s up from 13.3% earlier and significantly higher than the 2.3% in 2024 before Trump took office.

Trump’s country-based tariffs have been billed as the centerpiece of his plan to shrink trade deficits and pressure companies to shift manufacturing jobs and investment to the US. Trump previously delayed his so-called reciprocal tariffs, first announced in April, to allow time for negotiations as nations sought to obtain better trade terms.

Some countries, including Switzerland and India, are still attempting to negotiate deals to lower their duties ahead of Thursday’s deadline.

Trump is expected to unveil separate tariffs on imports of pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, critical minerals and other key industrial products in the coming weeks, meaning ongoing uncertainty for companies and investors. And on Monday, he also threatened to impose “substantially” higher levies on Indian exports to the US over New Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil.

 

Malaysia Plans to Boost Palm Oil Replanting Rate by 2026: Johari

Malaysia targets an oil palm replanting rate of 4% by 2026 to ensure that old and unproductive trees are cut down and replaced, according to Plantation and Commodities Minister Johari Abdul Ghani.

• The ministry has applied to increase allocations for replanting to 1.4 billion ringgit ($331 million) under the nation’s five-year economic plan, in order to help smallholders replant, he told parliament on Tuesday
• Replanting is ideally at a rate of 4% to 5% a year, he said, but in 2024 it was only at an average of 2%, with 0.7% for smallholders and 2.3% for estates
  • That’s as higher prices of fresh fruit bunches last year discouraged farmers from cutting down trees
• Replanting must be seen as a strategic investment to ensure plantations remain productive and income streams are more stable and sustainable in the long run: Johari

 

Egypt Buys Over 4m Tons of Local Wheat in 2025 Season: Minister

Egypt’s wheat reserves are sufficient for over six months, Supply Minister Sherif Farouk tells Bloomberg.

• Sugar reserves sufficient for 16 months

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Prices drop for the third month in a row

Wheat prices moved down in July for the third consecutive month; however, decreases were not significant. Prices dropped due to the lower import parity, which continues at low levels because of international values and of dollar quotations. The liquidity in the domestic market remained low over the last weeks, since wheat mills preferred the imported product, while sellers were focused on the end of sowing activities and on the development of crops.

Data released by Seab/Deral last week indicate that the area is at 832.8 thousand hectares in Paraná, downing 27% compared to the season before. The productivity is expected to surpass by 52% that in 2024, to 3.14 tons per hectare, which would result in a production of 2.61 million tons, 13% more than in the previous crop.

As for Rio Grande do Sul, the 10% area decrease (to 1.2 million hectares) would not be compensated by productivity (+7.8%, to 3 tons per hectare), which would keep the supply smaller than in last year, at 3.59 million tons, according to Emater/RS.

According to data from Cepea, between July 25 and August 1st, in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values remained stable in Rio Grande do Sul, but rose 1.48% in Santa Catarina. On the other hand, quotations decreased 0.82% in Paraná, and 0.07% in São Paulo. The prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) dropped 1.8% in Santa Catarina, 0.09% in Rio Grande do Sul, and 1.5% in Paraná. The US dollar decreased 0.32% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.549 on August 1st.

In July/25, the monthly average of wheat prices in Paraná was BRL 1,476.95 per ton, moving down 2.2% against June/25 and 7.2% in relation to that in July/24, in real terms (IGP-DI). In Rio Grande do Sul, the average was BRL 1,317.83/ton, 2.5% down in one month and -12.8% in one year. In São Paulo, prices averaged BRL 1.499.43/ton, -2% and -8.9% in the same comparisons. As for Santa Catarina, the average was BRL 1,441.48/ton in August, decreasing 1.9% compared to June and 7.4% against that in the same month last year.

 

Ukraine eyes higher 2025 grain harvest, plans more winter wheat for 2026

• Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest, exports seen rising
• Strong demand promotes growth of wheat sowing areas

The 2025 harvest of Ukraine’s key commodities, wheat and corn, may be higher than expected if weather conditions are favourable, while stable export demand will encourage farmers to expand winter wheat sowings for the 2026 crop, a senior official said on Monday.

Ukraine is a major global grain grower and exporter but its harvest fell sharply after Kyiv lost around a fifth of its territory due to the Russian invasion in 2022.

Taras Vysotskiy, deputy economy minister, told Reuters in an interview that the 2025 wheat output forecast may be raised to 22 million tons from the current 21.2 million tons and to 28 million tons from 26.5 million tons for corn.

The overall harvest could repeat the result of 2024, when 56 million tons of grain was threshed, with 22.7 million tons of wheat and 26 million tons of corn.

In 2021, before the Russian invasion, Ukraine harvested 84 million tons of grain. It included 32 million tons of wheat and almost 42 million tons of corn.

“Previously, the forecast was 26.5 million tons of corn for 2025, but there is potential for growth – optimistically speaking, we could see 28 million tons, provided there are no serious unforeseen circumstances,” he told Reuters.

The deputy minister said a higher output would allow the export of up to 40 million tons of various grains in the 2025/26 July-June season.

He said that the export could include 15 to 16 million tons of wheat but some of the volume would be redirected as the European Union has imposed limits on wheat imports from Ukraine to address the concerns of its own farmers.

The move cut imports to 1 million tons from 4 million which Ukraine supplied to the EU.

“These three million tonnes (which Ukraine previously supplied to the EU) are not critical in terms of redirection to other markets,” he said.

In addition to the EU, Ukraine traditionally supplies wheat to North Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

Vysotskiy said that the area under winter wheat, Ukraine’s key grain crop, may rise by 6.4% to 5 million hectares in 2026 thanks to high external demand and an expected reduction in the area under soybeans.

Winter wheat accounts for more than 95% of the total wheat harvest in Ukraine, which exports almost two-thirds of its output and before the war ranked fifth among wheat exporters.

“Considering that wheat prices are currently good for both food and feed, 5 million hectares of sown area is possible,” Taras Vysotskiy, deputy economy minister, said in the first official forecast for the 2025/26 winter wheat sowing area.

Ukrainian wheat export prices traditionally fall during the mass harvest, but according to the largest Ukrainian farmers’ union UAC, prices have remained stable this season, fluctuating around $222-$227 per ton carriage paid to (CPT), supported by demand.

UAC said last week that 3.45 million tons of Ukrainian wheat were contracted for exports in July-August.

 

Paraguay Could Sell More Beef to US Due to Tariffs: Central Bank

Paraguay could sell more meat to the US if the American government slaps tariffs on global meat exporter Brazil, Paraguayan central bank chief economist Cesar Yunis said in a webcast.

• Brazil at the same time may ship its surplus meat to markets where Paraguay is a major seller, like Chile: Yunis
  • NOTE: Brazil’s Lula Says Open to US Trade Talks If Treated as an Equal
• Paraguay’s inflation accelerated to a four-month high of 4.3% last month led by a jump in beef price: central bank price index director Guillermo Ortiz
  • Higher prices for beef, restaurants, tourism and milk were tempered by a drop in fresh produce prices
  • Inflation rose 0.4% m/m

 

 

 

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