Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
CRUDE OIL
September Crude Oil is down for the fourth straight session, as rising OPEC+ supply offsets the threats of US sanctions against buyers of Russian crude oil. President Trump threatened raise tariffs to 100% for those nations buying Russian crude, and India has become the largest importer of Russian oil. So far, India has pushed back, as government officially have suggested that the nation will not be deterred. There have been some suggestions that Prime Minister Modi is calculating that President Trump will ultimately decide that ties between the two countries were too important to jeopardize by a trade spat. OPEC+ indents to lift its quotas by another 544,000 barrels per day in September, and the uncertain global economic outlook brought on by the tariff disputes is pressuring the demand outlook. For the weekly stocks reports, the early Reuters poll has an average trade expectation for US crude stocks to show a 1.8 million-barrel decline for the week ended August 1, with gasoline stocks expected to be down 1.1 million barrels and distillate stocks up 1.1 million.
NATURAL GAS
September Natural Gas is higher this morning but inside yesterday’s range down action. The market has continued to pursue new lows as US storage has been building at an above average rate this summer. Weekly Baker-Hughes gas rigs in operation have been expanding, and it has not been hot enough, long enough to boost cooling demand to a point where it cuts into supply gains. The latest 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts show mostly above or much above lower temperatures next week but conditions are cooler this week, and it its getting late in the season. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 107.9 billion cubic feet per day so far in August, up from record high of 107.6 bcfd in July. LSEG also reported that the average amount of gas flowing to the eight big US LNG export has risen to 15.8 bcfd so far in August, up from 15.5 bcfd in July but still below the record 16.0 bcfd in April.
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