Wkly Futures Market Summary For 8.4.2025

SOYBEANS

The soy complex is picking up where it left off last week and is starting lower this morning. The new tariffs on Chinese imports are set on August 12th, and President Trump still has not officially extended the deadline. There are still no Chinese purchases for new crop beans on the books, and they bought their 3rd cargo of meal from Argentina last week.

SOYBEAN MEAL

Soymeal prices have finally lifted clear of multi-year lows in the last few trading sessions, following a key reversal higher on the December futures chart late last week. The market reached extremely oversold levels, and an upside correction was due.

CORN

Those hoping for a weekend shift in the bearish tone did not get it, and prices are starting the week by testing the contract lows. OPEC+ raised their output over the weekend, which is pressuring crude oil and corn this morning.

WHEAT

The wheat market was unable to get any traction last week, and prices have fallen to new contract lows on both Chicago and Kansas City again this morning. Open interest in Chicago wheat continues to rise on the recent break and is at its highest level since late May. COT data confirms Managed Money traders added more than 13,200 contracts to their already large net short position as of Tuesday of last week.

CATTLE

There was very volatile trading last week in live cattle and feeders, with sharply higher prices in the 1st half of the week and a major selloff in the 2nd half. All-time high prices typically stimulate significant volatility, and traders need deep pockets to trade the cattle market right now.

HOGS

December hogs were choppy most of last week but did close in the upper end of the range, partly due to a sharp selloff in the US dollar on Friday and the 90-day tariff extension granted to Mexico. Open interest continues to drop in the August contract, but the deferred months did not show a significant change on Friday. COT data showed Managed Money traders reduced their net longs to a two-month low.

MILK CLASS III

September Class III milk finished with a moderate weekly gain after falling to a new contract low on Thursday.

ENERGIES

OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to increase oil production another 547,000 barrels per day for September, as expected. This brings the total quota lifting to 2.5 million bpd since the beginning of the year, although the increase in production is closer to 1.7 million bpd because some members have cut output after previously overproducing. The group is scheduled to meet again on September 7.

September RROB is lower again this morning, following a selloff on Friday off the weak jobs report and in the wake of the OPEC+ production increases for September that were announced yesterday.

September Natural Gas has managed to hold Thursday’s three-year lows on Friday, but it is approaching that low this morning. The Baker Hughes gas rig count showed US rigs in operation up 2 to 124 last week.

DOLLAR INDEX

The USD index is lower, continuing its fall as the jobs data on Friday increased bets on the number of job cuts by the Fed this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the Fed was looking to hold rates steady for longer but would also receive two sets of labor data before the next Fed meeting, which could alter that decision depending on strength.

COCOA

September Cocoa extended Friday’s declines overnight. The tariffs announced by the US last week left rates at the minimal 15% for Ivory Coast, Ghana, Ecuador, Cameroon, Nigeria, Colombia, and Venezuela. World Weather Service says much of Ivory Coast and Ghana were either dry or received only very light rainfall over the weekend, allowing net drying to continue in many areas.

COFFEE

China announced over the weekend that it has approved 183 new Brazilian coffee companies to export products into that country, as Brazil looks to find new markets for the roughly 8 million bags it sells to the US every year now that the US has imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports, which are slated to go into effect on August 6. So far coffee has not been exempted from the tariffs.

COTTON

December Cotton was slightly higher overnight following Friday’s selloff in the wake of the disappointing jobs report. It didn’t help that the US announced sharp tariff increases set to begin August 6, which could discourage global demand and also put the US cotton exports at a disadvantage to Brazil.

SUGAR

October Sugar is back above Friday’s high this morning after selling off Friday on the low-risk impulse in the wake of the disappointing jobs data and the new tariff announcements, as well as a recovery in Brazilian production in the first half of July that were reported on Thursday. The Trading Corporation of Pakistan has issued a new tender to purchase 100,000 metric tons of white refined sugar with a deadline for submission of price offers is August 11,

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold futures are higher, supported by a weaker dollar, bets of a Fed rate cut, and investor worries over the US economy following disappointing labor data on Friday.

Silver futures are higher, following gains from the previous session, as growing bets on a Fed interest rate cut broadened its appeal. The dollar’s pullback and falling Treasury yields have further buoyed silver’s appeal.

Copper futures are higher after a fatal mining collapse in Chile sparked supply fears, although the metal is hovering around its lowest levels since early April amid concerns that US inventories will weaken short-term demand.

EQUITIES

Stock index futures are higher, rebounding from disappointing labor data and tariff headwinds last week, which saw the S&P 500 drop nearly 2.5%, the Nasdaq fall 2.2%, and the Dow shed 2.9%. July’s jobs report came in weaker than expected, and previous months’ figures were revised sharply lower, flipping the narrative on the labor market’s strength. This week will be relatively quiet on the economic front, with ISM survey data on services sector activity taking most of the attention.

INTEREST RATES

Futures are mixed across the curve, with long-end yields marginally higher. Yields fell sharply following Friday’s jobs report, which painted a dimmer picture of the labor market than what markets were expecting

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