Global Ag News For Aug 1.2025

TOP HEADLINES

India’s July palm oil imports drop as soyoil shipments surge, dealers say

India’s palm oil imports fell in July because of cancellations in import contracts, while soyoil shipments surged to a 3-year high due to competitive prices and the delivery of delayed shipments from June, according to five dealers.

Lower palm oil imports by India, the world’s biggest buyer of vegetable oils, could lead to a stock buildup in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia and weigh on benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures FCPOc3.

In July, palm oil imports declined by 10% to 858,000 metric tons, down from June’s 11-month high, according to estimates from dealers.

Soyoil imports in July surged 38% month-on-month to 495,000 tons, the highest level in three years. The increase was a result of vessels finally discharging their cargo in July after being delayed by congestion at Gujarat’s Kandla port in June, they said.

Sunflower oil imports fell 7% to 201,000 tons, dealers estimated.

Higher imports of soyoil lifted India’s total edible oil imports in July by 1.5% to 1.53 million tons from a month earlier, the highest level since November, according to dealers’ estimates.

The import numbers exclude duty-free shipments that arrived via land borders from Nepal, they said.

After buying less edible oil than usual in the first half of 2025, India is now increasing imports to meet rising demand ahead of the upcoming festive season, said Aashish Acharya, vice president at Patanjali Foods Ltd PAFO.NS, a leading importer of edible oils.

In India, edible oil demand, particularly for palm oil, typically rises during the festival season due to increased consumption of sweets and fried foods.

Even in the coming months, imports will remain robust as refiners try to replenish their inventories, said Rajesh Patel, managing partner at GGN Research, an edible oil trader.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

Nepal’s edible oil imports were 83,000 tons in July, up from 75,000 tons in June, GGN Research estimated.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 in SRW, down 3 1/2 in HRW, down 2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 2 1/4; Soymeal down $1.00; Soyoil down 0.01.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 24 1/4 in SRW, down 12 1/4 in HRW, down 11 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 4 3/4; Soybeans down 23 1/2; Soymeal up $0.10; Soyoil down 1.97.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 7 1/2 in SRW, down 11 in HRW, down 7 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/2; Soybeans down 2 1/4; Soymeal up $3.50; Soyoil down 0.85.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 6.8% in SRW, down 8.1% in HRW, down 4.3% in HRS; Corn is down 15.3%; Soybeans down 3.7%; Soymeal down 13.0%; Soyoil up 37.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal up 17; Soyoil up 18; Palm oil down 80; Corn down 8 — Malaysian Palm is down 60.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 60 ringgit (-1.41%) at 4185.

 

There were changes in registrations (-114 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 761 Soybeans; 697 Soyoil; 1,762 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 1 were: SRW Wheat up 8,188 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,584, Corn up 10,784, Soybeans up 1,655, Soymeal up 660, Soyoil up 1,362.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 04 AUGUST 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: High rainfall expected this week over the Canadian Prairies in Saskatchewan will benefit the wheat crop during the critical yield formation
• SOUTH AMERICA: Dry weather will prevail over key second corn areas of Brazil in the next 2 weeks, supporting efforts to catch up on harvest delays
• EUROPE: Local heatwave expands across Southwest Europe and will affect primarily Spain during the next 7-10 days
• EAST ASIA: Heavy rains forecast for the southern crop areas of North China Plain will help to reduce drought concerns
• TROPICS: Tropical activity is slowly growing over the Atlantic, as two disturbances have the potential for development this week, warranting attention

 

No risk from weather for U.S. corn and soybean in early August

LSEG/Reuters

What to Watch:

• Favorable weather conditions have been observed in the Western Midwest and Saskatchewan
• A neutral weather pattern over the next 15 days will support U.S. corn and soybean development
• Beneficial rains are expected across the western Canadian Prairies, while drought persists in Manitoba

 

The player sheet for 8/1 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 3,500 corn, sellers of 2,500 soybeans, buyers of 4,500 soymeal, and sellers of 5,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales totaling 352,160 metric of U.S. corn for shipment to undisclosed destinations in the 2025/26 marketing year. It was the third large U.S. corn export sales announcement this week via USDA’s daily reporting system.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 45,200 metric tons of rice to be sourced from Vietnam and Thailand.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Soybean Crushings at 197.1M Bushels in June: USDA

USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.

• Crushing 7.4% higher than same period last year
• Crude oil production 7.8% higher than same period last year
• Crude and once-refined oil stocks down 10.8% y/y

 

US Corn Used for Ethanol at 448M Bu in June

The following is a summary of US corn consumption for fuel and other products, according to the USDA.

• Corn for ethanol was 0.4% higher than in June 2024
• In total, mills consumed 498m bu of corn in June, a 0.1% decline over last year
• DDGS production rose to 1.876m tons

 

Argentina Lower Export Tariffs Could Boost Harvest by 8% in 2035

If lower export tariffs are maintained over the next decade, as well as a unified FX rate, Argentine farmers are seen producing 172.3 million metric tons of crops in 2034-35, 8% more than forecast before the reduction of levies, which went into effect on Friday, the Rosario Board of Trade said in a report.

• That would also mean an increase in shipments abroad, with a new estimate of 115.7 million tons in 2034-35, or 10.1 million tons more than with the higher tariffs
• In a separate report, Buenos Aires Grain Exchange analysts said they see the tariff cuts boosting soy production in the upcoming 2025-26 season by 2.3 million tons y/y; before the policy, they’d expected a drop of 500,000 tons
• Y/y growth in corn production predicted for next season now seen 1.5 million tons lower than before the tariff cuts

 

Argentina’s agricultural export revenue up 57% in July

Exports from Argentina’s agricultural sector rose 57% in July compared to the same month a year earlier, the country’s CIARA-CEC grains processors and exporters’ chamber said on Friday.

The agricultural sector brought in a total of $4.1 billion through exports in the month, the chamber said in a statement.

 

Brazil harvest 74.16% of 2025 second corn area vs 87.34% a year earlier – Patria Agronegocios

BRAZIL FARMERS HARVEST 74.16% OF 2025 SECOND CORN AREA VERSUS 87.34% AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR – PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS

 

CORN/CEPEA: Slow pace of trades presses down values

After a brief upward trend, corn prices are moving down again. The decrease is related to the fact that purchasers are unwilling to trade, expecting more price drops due to the progress of the second crop harvesting. Moreover, exports are smaller compared to July 2024.

Purchasers in Brazil are focused on the progress of the harvesting. In spite of the delay compared to last year, some areas in Mato Grosso and Goiás have presented high productivity, increasing the supply.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Dollar and firm demand boost prices

Cepea, 1st – Soybean prices have moved up this week, as a result of the growing competition between purchasers in Brazil and from abroad and of the dollar increase.

This month (up to July 28), Brazil shipped 10.44 million tons of soybean, and the daily average of exports surpassed by 12.4% the amount verified in July/24 – data from Secex.

This scenario increased export premiums to the highest levels in three years. Moreover, the tariff hike from the US to several countries, including Brazil, may boost the demand from abroad for the Brazilian soybean.

 

Malaysia’s end-July palm oil stocks to hit near two-year high

• July stocks likely to rise 10.8% to 2.25 mln MT, poll shows
• Output forecast to climb 8% to 1.83 mln MT
• Exports projected to increase 3.2% to 1.3 mln MT
• Malaysian Palm Oil Board data due on August 11

Malaysia’s palm oil inventories are forecast to rise for a fifth consecutive month in July to reachtheir highest level in almost two years, as production growth outpaced exports, a Reuters survey showed on Monday.

Palm oil stocks are expected to rise to 2.25 million metric tons, up 10.8% from June, according to a median estimate of 11 traders, planters, and analysts polled by Reuters.

Crude palm oil output is expected to reach 1.83 million metric tons, an 8% increase from the previous month, snapping last month’s decline and hitting a one-year high.

Stocks are expected to increase due to a jump in production and adjustments to domestic consumption figures, said Anilkumar Bagani, research head of Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker Sunvin Group.

Bagani said that a stock level above 2 million tons during peak production season is not concerning, given that Indonesia’s palm oil export supplies remain tight due to their ongoing B40 biodiesel mandate.

“However, palm oil has to compete hard with South American and Black Sea soybean oil, which have had very good crop yields this season,” he said.

Exports of palm oil products are projected to grow 3.2% to 1.3 million metric tons, reversing last month’s decline, the survey showed.

Malaysian July exports were capped by aggressive selling at a discount by rival Indonesia, which wanted to ship as much as possible before a higher export duty becomes effective in August, said Tajgir Rahman, general manager, trading and procurement at IFFCO.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is scheduled to release its monthly data on August 11.

 

SovEcon Trims Russian Wheat Harvest Estimate on Southern Yields

SovEcon reduced its forecast for Russia’s wheat production in the 2025-26 season to 83.3m tons, from a previous forecast of 83.6m tons, it said in a note.

• Cites weaker-than-expected yields in the south
• Says the Central region exceeds expectations and the Siberian crop also looks stronger, while the forecast for the Volga region was largely unchanged
• Recent heavy rain in the European part of Russia isn’t expected to materially impact total production, but probably affected grain quality, particularly for some winter-wheat areas

 

Ukraine’s Grain Harvest Running 39% Below Last Year: Ministry

Ukraine has harvested 15.5m tons of grains so far this season, 39% below the 25.3m tons produced in the same period a year earlier, according to the Economy Ministry website statement.

• The grain was harvested from 4.4m hectares (10.8m acres) vs 7.2m hectares last year: ministry
• The total includes:
  • 11.4m tons of wheat vs 19.4m year ago
  • 3.57m tons of barley, down 26% y/y
  • The grain harvest also includes legumes
  • 39% of area planted with grains and legumes has been harvested

 

US Beef Production Falls 2.6% This Week, Pork Rises: USDA

US federally inspected beef production falls to 462m pounds for the week ending Aug. 2 from 474m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter down 2.6% from a week ago to 535m head
• Pork production up 0.3% from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 0.3%
• For the year, beef production is 3.5% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 2.1% below

 

 

 

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