Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
New month. Tariff day. Grains are quietly mixed. World Weather August weather forecast suggest normal Midwest rains and normal temps. Supply driven bear market continues. US stocks are sharply lower. Thursday outside day closing lower negative. USD is higher. Crude is lower. Metals lower after Trump announce 50 pct tariff on copper.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 9.69. There were 408 soybean deliveries, LDC was stopper. There were 3 soyoil deliveries. There were 629 soymeal deliveries. US spat with India has beanoil/oilshare/crush margins in profit taking mode. Weekly US soybean old crop export sales were 349 mt with total commit near 51.1 mmt vs 45.3 ly. New crop sales were 429 mmt with unshipped open sales near 3.0 mmt. Sales to Mexico and unknown increased. US soymeal export commit is near 15.3 mmt vs 13.6 ly. Brazil soybean export basis firm. China is covered for Aug-Sep, mostly from Brazil. Looking at Oct-Nov with sources suggesting trying to buy as little as possible from US. Rumors suggest China is buying more Argentina soymeal.
CORN
CU is near 3.95. Corn futures were supported by liquidation of short corn and soybean spread. Brazil farmer increased selling but basis remains firm due to logistics bottlenecks. Weekly US old crop export sales were 340 mt mt with total commit near 70.4 mmt vs 55.2 ly and new crop was 1,890 mt with unshipped open sales near 8.6 mmt. Sales to Japan, S Korea, Mexico and unknown increased. USDA announced 140 mt US 25/26 corn to S Korea, 100 mt US 25/26 corn to Colombia and 136 mt US 25/26 corn to unknown. US PNW still cheapest to Asia. Brazil north ports cheapest to EU.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.21. KWU is near 5.25. MWU is near 5.75. Weak global July wheat exports pressured wheat futures. All 3 classes are at or near contract lows. Weekly US export sales were 592 mt, Total commit is near 9.5 mmt vs 8.3 ly. Bangladesh to buy 220 mt US wheat to cool tariff tension. Failure to have a strong Aug-Oct program risks major exporter end-stocks ballooning higher. USDA announced 100 mt US HRW to Nigeria. Matif futures new contract lows.
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