Global Ag News For July 30.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Locusts spread in Ukraine’s south as war disrupts control measures

A massive locust invasion is threatening sunflower and other crops in Ukraine’s southern regions, largely caused by the war against Russia’s invasion that makes it impossible to use traditional pest control methods, officials and producers say.

Locusts, which can destroy huge areas of crops in a matter of days, traditionally breed in secluded places along rivers or in uncultivated areas, and controlling that is almost impossible in regions neighbouring the frontline.

The situation is complicated by record high temperatures this summer, the inability to use aircraft for locust control and the absence of birds – locusts’ natural predators – which are avoiding the combat zone.

Local and government officials declined to provide data on the extent of the locust infestation or damage caused so far. Ukraine is the world’s largest sunflower oil exporter and before the war ranked fifth among wheat exporters.

Swarms of locusts are covering roads, fields and bushes in Zaporizhzhia region and farmers say the insects have destroyed up to a third of their sunflower crops.

“We saw a big swarm. And the next day the ‘infantry’ marched in. The small ones, they ate everything that was hanging low, they ate everything,” said Oleh Tolmatov, 46, a resident of Kushuhum village in Zaporizhzhia region.

Russia, which invaded Ukraine in 2022, has partially occupied the southern Ukrainian regions of Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv and Kherson, forcing farmers to abandon their fields.

Grains and oilseeds are traditional crops for these regions.

“The reason for all of this is high temperatures, the reason for all of this is abandoned land, the reason for all of this is the corresponding Russian aggression,” Vadym Chaikovskyi, Ukraine’s Chief Phytosanitary Inspector, told Reuters.

Denys Marchuk, deputy head of Ukraine’s largest farm producers’ union UAC, said that the destruction of the Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro River by Russian troops two years ago had created huge swampy areas where locusts are breeding.

Kyiv says that Russia blew up the Kakhovka dam in the summer of 2023, draining thousands of square kilometres of the former reservoir and leaving farms and Europe’s largest nuclear power plant without water.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, up 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans up 1; Soymeal up $0.80; Soyoil down 0.27.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 9 1/2 in SRW, down 8 1/4 in HRW, down 6 in HRS; Corn is down 7 1/4; Soybeans down 10 1/2; Soymeal down $4.30; Soyoil up 0.53.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 9 1/2 in SRW, down 8 1/2 in HRW, down 42 in HRS; Corn is down 13 3/4; Soybeans down 16 1/2; Soymeal down $12.00; Soyoil up 3.76.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 4.1% in SRW, down 7.3% in HRW, down 2.9% in HRS; Corn is down 15.0%; Soybeans down 1.5%; Soymeal down 14.6%; Soyoil up 44.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans up 16 yuan; Soymeal up 27; Soyoil up 70; Palm oil up 46; Corn up 4 — Malaysian Palm is up 23.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 23 ringgit (+0.54%) at 4277.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 651 Soybeans; 780 Soyoil; 1,876 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 29 were: SRW Wheat up 2,402 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,698, Corn up 28,273, Soybeans down 6,135, Soymeal down 9,320, Soyoil down 1,012.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 30 JULY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Cool and wet weather continue across the Central Plains and Eastern U.S. over the next 7 days
• SOUTH AMERICA: Argentina’s Pampas stay warm temperatures and wet; Brazil remains dry over this week
• EUROPE: Cool spell shifts eastward, then continent-wide warmth takes over the next 15-days
• ASIA: Cooler-than-normal South, Southeast, and mixed temperatures in East with heavy rains in South China and North India

 

RAINFALL BENEFITS CORN AND SOYBEAN CROPS IN THE CENTRAL U.S.

What to Watch:

• Cooler-than-normal temperatures in most of the U.S during this week
• Wet spells in the Central U.S.

 

Northern Plains: A front continues to slowly move through with more scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Another system will be moving through late week and weekend with more. Showers will be scattered and not widespread, but soil moisture will continue to build, favorable for corn and soybeans, but not for wheat, which will be maturing going into August. Some areas of heavy rain and severe weather could degrade quality.

Central/Southern Plains: A front will slowly drop through the region this week, with showers waning as it gets into the Southern Plains, but with temperatures significantly falling. Showers will return to northern areas in a couple of waves this weekend and next week, as mostly favorable conditions continue for corn and soybeans.

Midwest: A slow-moving front will push through over the next couple of days with more scattered showers and a significant drop in temperatures. Severe storms occurred in Minnesota and Iowa with the front on Monday, and may have technically met the definition of a derecho, but reports early this morning indicate that the damage was not as widespread as feared. More severe weather will be possible as the front sags through, though. Conditions are still mostly favorable for corn and soybeans despite the recent heat and severe weather.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Isolated showers over the weekend continue this week as temperatures remain hot. A stronger front will move into the region later in the week with more scattered showers and thunderstorms and a drop in temperatures closer to normal going into the weekend. The front may stall in the region where showers and thunderstorms would continue into early next week, at least for southern areas.

Canadian Prairies: Though some showers will be possible in the southwest for Tuesday, much of the region will be drier until Friday or the weekend, when another system will move through. Whether it has scattered showers or not, it will likely be too late to help with more mature areas across the south, or damaged areas across the north.

Black Sea: Scattered showers will favor the western end of the region this week, with hotter and drier conditions across the central and east. That should be beneficial for maturing wheat and harvest. But not for corn, which is still pretty dry across most areas in Ukraine and southwestern Russia. Showers may increase in southwestern Russia this weekend, but would likely be scattered and not the steady rainfall that the region needs.

 

The player sheet for 7/29 had funds: net sellers of 4,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 10,500 corn, sellers of 2,500 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 4,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN PURHCASE: The Busan section of the Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased an estimated 66,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Tuesday without issuing an international tender
• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee purchased about 132,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional worldwide origins in an international tender on Tuesday.
• CORN SALE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday.
• CORN TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn.
• FAILED WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday.

 

PENDING TENDERS

• Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.
• CORN TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 207,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• FEED WHEAT TENDER: A group of importers in Thailand issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat
• BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import about 225,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending July 25 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.085m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 24.539m bbl vs 24.444m a week ago

 

Canadian Oilseed Crushing Statistics

Oilseed processors crushed 856.1 thousand tonnes of canola in June, up 3.0% from May and 10.3% from June 2024. Oil production reached 364.6 thousand tonnes in June 2025, while meal production was 507.0 thousand tonnes.

Canadian processors also crushed 104.8 thousand tonnes of soybeans in June, down 33.8% from the previous month and up 22.9% from the same month one year earlier. Soybean oil production totalled 20.1 thousand tonnes, while meal production was 81.5 thousand tonnes.

 

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Down 64% Year-on-Year in Week to July 27

The EU’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 totaled around 803k tons as of July 27, compared with 2.25m tons over the same period a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations included Nigeria with 94k tons, Algeria with 94k tons and Saudi Arabia with 77K tons
• Barley exports were around 774k tons, down 16% y/y
• Corn imports totaled nearly 555k tons, down 74% y/y

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 12.05 Million Tns In July – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 12.05 MILLION TNS IN JULY VERSUS 12.11 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.13 MILLION TNS IN JULY VERSUS 2.4 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 4.18 MILLION TNS IN JULY VERSUS 4.14 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – ANEC

 

India buys record soyoil from China in rare move, sources say

Indian importers have bought a record 150,000 metric tons of soyoil from China in rare purchases, as a supply glut prompted Chinese crushers to sell at a discount to India’s traditional suppliers from South America, four trade sources said.

The exports to India will help Chinese crushers cut inventories that surged after the country’s soybean imports hit a record peak in May, boosting processing and stockpiles while demand slowed. China is the world’s biggest importer of soybean.

Indian importers bought the soyoil for shipment between September and December, with sellers offering a $15 to $20 a ton discount compared with South American supplies, said the sources who declined to be named because they were not authorised to speak to the media.

“Chinese soybean crushers are struggling with excessive soymeal and soyoil. To reduce inventories, they are shipping oil to India,” a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house told Reuters.

India, which mainly imports soyoil from Argentina and Brazil, began buying from China due to the price advantage, the dealer said. China is traditionally a net importer of soyoil and palm oil.

Chinese crushers offered crude soyoil at around $1,140 per ton, including cost, insurance, and freight (CIF), for shipments in the December quarter, compared with $1,160 from South America, another dealer said.

Lower freight costs have given China the upper hand too, as shipments from South America take more than six weeks to reach India, while those from China arrive in two to three weeks, a Mumbai-based dealer said.

India meets nearly two-thirds of its vegetable oil demand through imports – by private companies – of palm oil, mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, as well as sunflower oil and soyoil from Russia and Ukraine in addition to Argentina and Brazil.

In India and elsewhere, soyoil is trading at a premium over palm oil, but in China, soyoil is trading at a discount due to the supply glut, a Kuala Lumpur-based dealer said.

India’s annual cooking oil requirement is huge, and it could buy even more from China if offered at competitive prices, said Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive of the Sunvin Group, a Mumbai-based vegetable oil brokerage.

 

Trade Group Says Biofuel Policy to Boost Gas Prices at the Pump

Biofuel policies ranging from President Donald Trump’s tariff wars to proposed US blending requirements threaten to spike costs for refineries and ultimately Americans at the gas pump, a key oil trade group tells congressional leaders.

• The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers estimates compliance costs for proposed rules on mixing biofuel into the US gasoline and diesel supply would be around $70 billion annually versus $6.7 billion estimated by the Trump administration
  • “This is bad for consumers and the refining industry,” AFPM says in letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune
• AFPM assails new “45Z” biofuel production tax credit rules that the group says disqualifies many refiners from the incentive
• An EPA delay in dealing with almost 200 so-called small-refinery exemption petitions under the Renewable Fuel Standard “has caused unacceptable uncertainty for small refineries” and the RIN market for biofuel credits: letter
• Group also decries tariffs on imported renewable feedstocks, which it says put at risk “significant investments our members have made in renewable fuel production”

 

Ukraine’s Grain Exports Drop 62% Y/y a Month Into New Season

Ukraine has exported 1.3 million tons of grain since the season started on July 1, versus 3.43 million tons at a similar time last year, the country’s agriculture ministry said on its website.

Total includes:

• 487,000 tons of wheat, down 66% y/y
• 191 tons of barley, down 60%
• 613,000 tons of corn, down 59% y/y

 

Bad weather could reduce Ukraine corn harvest by 2 million tons, producers say

High air temperatures and a lack of rain could reduce Ukraine’s 2025 corn harvest by 2 million metric tons, Ukrainian agricultural producers’ union UAC said on Tuesday.

“This weather could reduce the harvest by 2 million tons. If someone was counting on 30 million tons, it could be 28 million. It’s not worth hoping for 30 million-plus,” the union said in a report.

Ukraine is a traditional corn producer and grain traders union UGA said this month that the country could harvest 29.3 million tons of corn this year versus 26 million tons in 2024.

 

South Africa Crops Body Raises 2025 Corn-Crop Forecast by 1.6%

The total corn crop is expected to be 15.65 million tons compared to the previous forecast of 15.4 million tons, South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee says it its sixth production estimate for the 2025 harvest.

• The estimated crop is 17% larger than the final 2024 production
• Forecast for white corn increases by 1.1% to 7.7 million tons and for the yellow variety the the estimate is raised by 2.3% to 7.3 million tons
• The preliminary area estimate for planted wheat is 512,500 hectares, which is 1.4% more than the total planted for the previous season
• NOTE: Total corn crop includes commercial and non-commercial producers

 

July rain improves the outlook for Australia’s wheat harvest

Rainfall across most of Australia’s grain-growing regions during July has lifted forecasts for the country’s 2025 wheat harvest to around 33 million tons, traders said at an industry conference on Wednesday.

A large crop in Australia, one of the biggest wheat exporters, would add to pressure on prices that are already low due to ample global supply. Benchmark Chicago wheat futures Wv1 are near their lowest levels since 2020.

In early June, when parts of Australia were still parched, the agriculture ministry said it expected wheat production this year of 30.6 million tons.

Australia is now likely to match or beat last year’s production of around 34 million tons, said Mark Lewis, COO of Riordan Grains.

Some cropping areas, particularly South Australia and parts of Victoria, suffered from dry starts to the growing season but rain has dampened soil and Australia’s weather bureau is forecasting above-median rain for most farms in the next three months.

“It feels like the weather patterns have changed and spring looks a lot more positive than it did,” Lewis said.

Sam Napier, a director at Cargill, told the Australian Grains Industry Conference in Melbourne the crop now “has to be bigger” than 33 million tons.

A poll of 50 members of his audience found that more than half thought the crop, due to be harvested in the last quarter of the year, would end up larger than currently forecast.

Four other traders and analysts told Reuters they had raised their forecasts and now expected the crop to come in between 31 million tons and 34 million tons.

“The potential has improved,” said Paul Smith, chief marketing and trading officer at CBH. “If we were having this discussion in mid-May or early June, the sentiment would definitely have been different,” he said.

Australia has had a run of large harvests this decade thanks to favourable weather and improving farm management.

Annual wheat production averaged 33.8 million tons in the five years to 2024, agriculture ministry data show. In the five years before that, it averaged 21.4 million tons.

 

Mexico Starts Dumping Investigation on US Epoxidized Soy Oil

Mexico has started an administrative procedure to examine the validity of compensatory quotas imposed on imports of epoxidized soybean oil from the US, according to the official gazette.

 

Favorable weather persists in NE China, but heats are stressing summer corn in the North China Plain

2025/26 CHINA CORN PRODUCTION: 299. 1 [293.6–304.0] MILLION TONS, Down MARGINALLY FROM LAST UPDATE

In Northeast China, July weather conditions have been mostly favorable to corn production, with precipitation levels near or above average and temperatures 0–2°C higher than normal. Especially Jilin province received much-needed rainfall last week, alleviating dryness concerns. This favorable weather pattern has led to sufficient soil moisture and near or record high crop vegetation densities (NDVIs), indicating higher yield potential. Consequently, we raised corn production estimate in Northeast China by approximately 1.1 million tons, primarily in Jilin, Nei Mongol, and Liaoning.

In contrast, the North China Plains have experienced persistent high temperatures, with anomalies of 4–6°C above the norm since early July, posing risks to summer corn yields. Particularly, Henan has faced both heats and dryness, raising drought concerns. In addition, parts of Hebei and Shandong may have encountered flooding recently, causing some losses. As a result, we reduced corn production estimate for the region by approximately 1.0 million tons, which offsets gains made in Northeast China.

China’s total corn production decreased marginally to 299.1 million tons; this figure is 4.2 million tons higher than last year due to larger sown area and higher yields.

 

Ukraine wheat production maintained with ongoing harvest campaign

2025/26 UKRAINE WHEAT PRODUCTION: 20.7 [19.7-21.7] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Ukrainian wheat production is unchanged at 20.7 [19.7-21.7] million tons (mmt), Production for Ukraine excluding Crimea and occupied oblasts (Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Kherson) is placed at 19.7 million tons. According to the latest report of Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, 2,178 thousand hectares of wheat were already threshed by Ukrainian farmers.

Over the past two weeks, Ukraine experienced warmer than normal temperatures and moderate rainfall across the country. Heavy rainfall was noted only in Western Ukraine, with precipitation surpluses 12-32 mm above average. According to LSEG’s latest weather forecast, moderate temperatures and dry weather conditions are expected to be in store for the next two weeks, supporting ongoing harvest operations.

 

Higher area estimate raises 2025/26 Ukraine corn production outlook

2025/26 UKRAINE CORN PRODUCTION: 29.9 [28.4-31.4] MILLION TONS, UP 9% FROM LAST UPDATE

Implementing official acreage estimates reported by Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, 2025/26 Ukraine corn production is raised to 29.9 [28.4-31.4] million tons. Ukrainian corn acreage has been increased to 4.49 million hectares (mha). The past two weeks, Ukraine has experienced moderate temperatures, with rainfall surpluses (12-32 mm above normal) especially in Western Ukraine. Thanks to that, soil moisture levels in key corn-producing Oblasts like Sumy, Ternopil, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Poltava, and Khmelnytskyi increased. But our latest satellite imagery analysis indicates that crops are in worse than average condition – vegetation densities (NDVI) values are below the long-term median across the country.

Moving forward, the latest weather forecasts indicate moderate temperatures and dry weather conditions for the next two weeks, which raise concerns for future soil moisture reserves and corn development.

 

 

 

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