Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
CRUDE OIL
September Crude Oil is higher this morning, as the market has taken an optimistic tone from the recent US trade agreements with the EU and Japan that avoided draconian tariff levels. The agreement with the EU included a more palatable 15% tariff on most EU goods, and it included a pledge for them to buy $750 billion in US energy products over the next three years. The energy purchase pledge is being met with a skepticism on the part of market analysts, given that global US energy exports amounted to $318 billion in 2024 (according to EIA data). However, the fact that progress has been made on the trade front with relatively moderate tariffs allows the Trump Administration to log some wins and raises hopes that global trade (and oil demand) will not suffer. Economic officials from US and China are meeting in Stockholm for the second day to resolve longstanding economic disputes, and any progress would likely be met with some relief. President Trump has set a new deadline of 10 or 12 days for Russia to make progress to come to a deal toward ending the war with Ukraine and to avoid steeper sanctions.
NATURAL GAS
September Natural Gas is higher this morning after trading to its lowest level since November 8 yesterday. The 6-10 day forecast shows a near or below normal dominating most of the nation, but above normal temperatures return in the 8-14 day. For the storage report this week, the early Reuters poll has a range of expectations for natural gas supply to show build for 30 to 48 bcf for the week ending July 25. The five-year average change for the week is +28 bcf. The EU trade agreement is viewed as good for the global economy, and even though the pledge to buy $750 billion in US energy products is viewed with skepticism, any move by the EU to buy more US LNG could buy viewed as bullish. The US already provided shipping 44% of the EU’s LNG, as they wean themselves off Russian supply.
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