Wkly Futures Market Summary For 7.28.2025

SOYBEANS

The soy complex is lower to start the week as a permanent reduction in Argentina’s export tax and an active US weather pattern are bearish. Argentina’s President Milei announced that the export tax on beans will decrease from 33% to 26%, and the export tax on bean products has been reduced to 24.5%, down from 31%. These reductions will be permanent and will create additional export competition, as farmers are more likely to release stored grain that can then be moved towards export channels and Argentine crushers.

SOYBEAN MEAL

Soymeal prices remain under pressure following weakness during the 2nd half of last week, from ideas that crush rates will continue to be very strong in the US due to the extraordinary profit margins for soy processors. Weaker soybean prices have not reduced crush profitability, and typical seasonal maintenance downtime this year looks to be smaller than prior years and may even be postponed at some plants.

CORN

Corn is hovering near steady to start the week following good rains over the weekend from central Kansas through northern Missouri and into the eastern belt. Rainfall amounts were heaviest in northern Missouri and southern Iowa, and parts of northern Illinois received up to 5 inches.

WHEAT

CATTLE

Live cattle and feeders both ended stronger on Friday, but the feeder market is leading the bull trend. The cash feeder index hit another new all-time high.

HOGS

Nearby hogs were higher Friday, while December ended lower. Friday afternoon’s June Cold Storage report showed an 11.1% decline in frozen pork stocks year-over-year and a 6.3% month-over-month decline. Since there are no pre-report guesses for cold storage, the market generally doesn’t react dramatically to the cold storage numbers.

MILK CLASS III

August Class III milk finished with a sizable weekly decline after falling to a new contract low on Friday. The USDA reported milk production remains seasonally low across the nation, with high temperatures diminishing output in the East and Central regions.

ENERGIES

September Crude Oil is higher this morning in the wake of the framework of trade agreement between the US and the EU that eases economic anxiety to some degree. The agreement set an import tariff of 15% on most EU goods, down from the threatened 30%. President Trump said the deal calls for $750 billion of EU purchases of US energy in the coming years, but details are scant and is some cases conflicting, with some reports that there was $750 million allocated for LNG and others for a mix of products.

September Natural Gas is higher this morning, perhaps on increased US LNG export expectations now that the US has agreed to a framework of a trade agreement. President Trump said the agreement included a pledge by the European Union to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products over the next three years, and traders suspect that a substantial portion of that would consist of LNG. On the bearish side, the Baker Hughes rig count showed US natural gas rigs in operation were up 5 rigs to 122 last week

DOLLAR INDEX

The USD index is higher, broadly gaining against most major currencies as the US-EU trade deal boosted demand for the dollar, as the clarity on the trade picture helped reduce uncertainty that has recently weighed on the dollar. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady later this week, with markets already pricing in a non-event from the meeting, although attention will be paid to Trump’s reaction to the meeting. Labor data, Q2 GDP, and inflation data are all due later this week, which could provide insights into the Fed’s future moves.

COCOA

The 2024/25 Ivory Coast crop seems to be getting smaller on subsequent revisions, but current conditions seem ripe for a strong crop main crop this fall. Ivory Coast port arrivals were totaled 13,000 metric tons last week, according to exporters’ estimates. This brings cumulative arrivals for the 2024/25 marketing year to 1.620 million tons, down 2% from 1.655 million at this point last year.

COFFEE

September Coffee was higher overnight but inside Friday’s range. The Brazilian harvest pace seems to be catching up with last year, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty with the US/Brazil tariff situation. Safras & Mercado reported on Friday that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest had reached 84% of the planted area as of July 23, up from 81% a year earlier and above the five-year average of 77% for this time of year. The robusta harvest was 96% completed versus 95% a year ago and a five-year average of 93%, and the arabica harvest was 76% complete versus 75% a year ago and 69% on average.

COTTON

December Cotton was mixed overnight, perhaps drawing support from equity market gains in the wake of the US/EU trade announcement but then seeing some pressure as the US dollar rallied off the news. The EU deal is not specifically bullish for cotton, as the US sells little cotton to Europe, but a more positive economic outlook is beneficial to cotton consumption in general.

SUGAR

October Sugar was slightly higher overnight but was inside the rang of the previous two sessions. Prices having fallen to their lowest level in over two years has apparently drawn some cash buying interest. European traders told Reuters on Friday that Pakistan’s state agency, the Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) has issued an international tender to purchase 100,000 metric tons of white refined sugar. On July 8 the government approved plans to import 500,000 tons of sugar to help to maintain price stability

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold futures are lower, pressured by an improved risk sentiment following a trade deal between the US and EU that also led to a stronger dollar, further weighing on gold.

Silver futures fell lower, following moves in gold as a stronger dollar weighed on the metal and a risk-on sentiment took place in the markets. Silver is up 36% this year, outperforming gold’s 31% growth and coming close to the key $40-per-ounce mark. Silver’s supply-demand fundamentals also remain favorable as the market is expected to remain in a deficit for the fifth straight year. Silver’s recent rally has improved its ratio with gold to the strongest level in seven months.

Copper futures slipped ahead of talks between the US and China, where the world’s two largest economies are expected to extend the August 12 tariff deadline. Markets are also awaiting the official implementation of the 50% tariff on copper into the US, set to take effect on Aug 1.

EQUITIES

Stock index futures are higher after the US and EU reached a trade agreement, avoiding a trade war with the US’s largest trading partner. The deal sets a 15% baseline tariff for European goods, including automobiles, while President Trump added that the EU would buy $750 billion of energy products from the US and invest an additional $600 in the US.

INTEREST RATES

Futures are little changed following the announcement of the US-EU trade deal ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting this week, where the bank is expected to leave interest rates on hold. Although two policymakers may dissent from the decision. Instead, market attention will center around the release of the advance estimate of second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product on Wednesday; PCE inflation data, the Fed’s preferred measure, on Wednesday; and nonfarm payrolls figures for July on Friday. The closely watched ISM manufacturing survey for July is also released Friday.

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