Global Ag News For July 25.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Australia’s Wheat Outlook Shows Little Improvement Despite Rain

Australia remains on track for a smaller wheat crop this season despite better rainfall in key growing regions, a blow to buyers such as China which may need more imports following a lengthy drought.

Rainfall across the biggest wheat-growing state of Western Australia has turned dusty fields into lush crops, said Agronomist Michael Lamond, who compiles the industry’s monthly grain outlook. Still, a lack of soil moisture means farmers may struggle to meet a production forecast for this season, he added.

“The rain was just hand-to-mouth,” Lamond said in an interview after visiting farms over the past month across the state. “It’s got us out of the jail for a couple of weeks. That’s about it.”

In June, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics forecast a 10% decline in the 2025-26 wheat crop at 30.6 million tons, which would still be above the 10-year average. Three of four analysts recently surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted output would be broadly in-line, or slightly higher than the government outlook. One sees even lower production.

A dip in Australian supply could force some of the nation’s major buyers in Asia to look elsewhere. China, the country’s biggest export destination for wheat, is facing its lowest output since 2018 after a drought, although ample stockpiles and relatively soft domestic demand may cushion the impact.

It’s still early in the grain-growing season, and late rains last year led to a big turnaround in the Western Australian wheat crop. The weather outlook is good through September to November, with a chance of higher-than-average rainfall in the state, along with the Victorian and South Australian grain belts.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 1/2 in SRW, down 2 1/4 in HRW, up 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 5; Soymeal down $0.60; Soyoil down 0.28.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 8 in SRW, down 3 1/2 in HRW, down 8 in HRS; Corn is down 8 1/4; Soybeans down 16 1/2; Soymeal down $5.90; Soyoil up 0.32.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 3/4 in SRW, down 1/2 in HRW, down 33 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/4; Soybeans down 7 3/4; Soymeal down $6.80; Soyoil up 3.31.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.4% in SRW, down 6.0% in HRW, down 1.4% in HRS; Corn is down 12.8%; Soybeans up 0.1%; Soymeal down 12.4%; Soyoil up 41.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans up 17 yuan; Soymeal down 16; Soyoil up 48; Palm oil down 38; Corn down 4 — Malaysian Palm is down 64.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 64 ringgit (-1.48%) at 4266.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 651 Soybeans; 780 Soyoil; 1,876 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 24 were: SRW Wheat up 5,606 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,243, Corn up 13,077, Soybeans down 10,498, Soymeal up 2,989, Soyoil up 4,020.

 

Northern Plains: Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms have been and continue to move through the region for the rest of this week and probably next week as well. Heavy rain so far has led to a significant increase in soil moisture for developing crops in most areas. A ridge to the south may increase with time and may force the rainfall to push farther north and east and temperatures to increase. But for now, good growing conditions are expected going into early August.

Central/Southern Plains: Disturbances should move through the north while the south gets largely hot and dry going through next week. A front may be strong enough to bring in some milder air and showers later next week, though that is uncertain; it could stall to the north. A ridge in the region may deflect the effects of that front farther to the east, which would be more harmful. Flash drought will also be possible across the south should showers be absent.

Midwest: A front continues to slowly move through the region this week, with multiple disturbances bringing showers and thunderstorms that have already led to heavy rainfall in the northwest. Temperatures south of the front are very hot and could cause stress to the areas that are a bit drier. The front will likely stall in the east this weekend with showers continuing there and helping to relieve some of the heat stress. Another system is likely to bring more showers through next week in a couple of pieces and bring through a round of much milder air that would be the end of the heatwave.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Isolated showers will remain possible through next week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below-normal, but a tropical disturbance moving through the Gulf could produce some heavier rain across the south going into the weekend. Northern areas will continue to have stress with less precipitation. Temperatures will continue to be extremely hot where rain is too sporadic and light. A front may not make it down into the region later next week, but could increase rainfall potential and reduce temperatures anyway.

Canadian Prairies: The pattern has been and continues to be very active with almost daily showers and thunderstorms are forecast through next week. That may be too late for some areas, but very helpful for others as spring wheat and canola continue into their reproductive stages. Drier areas in Manitoba really need the rain, but some of Alberta and Saskatchewan are in really good shape right now.

 

HEAT RISKS ACROSS THE U.S., WHILE WET SPELLS IN THE CENTRAL REGION BENEFIT MAJOR CROPS

By Narasimha, Weather Analyst, LSEG

What to Watch:

• Heat risks in most of the U.S.
• Wet spells in the Central U.S.

 

WET SPELLS ACROSS EUROPE AND THE BLACK SEA REGION COULD INFLUENCE CORN DEVELOPMENT

What to Watch:

• Mixed temperatures in Europe & Black Sea region
• Wet weather may support corn development

 

The player sheet for 7/24 had funds: net sellers of 0 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 6,000 corn, sellers of 3,500 soybeans, and sellers of 1,500 soymeal.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that exporters sold 135,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to South Korea for delivery in the 2025-26 marketing year. Exporters also sold 284,196 metric tons of U.S. corn to unknown destinations, including 83,956 tons for 2024-25 delivery and 200,240 tons for 2025-26, the agency said.
• CORN PURCHASES: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) bought an estimated 135,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased around 65,000 to 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a second private deal on Thursday
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: A group of South Korean flour mills has issued a tender to purchase around 100,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States and Canada
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following table shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending July 17, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Mexico with 130k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Unknown Buyers with 399k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Indonesia with 117k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending July 17, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 7.2k tons of the 17k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

CROP TOUR: North Dakota Spring Wheat Seen Down From USDA Record

North Dakota spring wheat yield is estimated at 49 bushels per acre, according to final assessment of Wheat Quality Council’s crop tour.

• That’s below the US Department of Agriculture’s production of 59 bushels per acre, which would match the record from last year
• Compares to last year’s yield of 54.5 bushel per acre
• Tour sampled wheat in 292 wheat fields
• North Dakota is the top producing state of hard red spring wheat, a high protein variety used to make pasta and other foods

 

Argentine Corn, Wheat Crop Estimates July 24: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2024-25 corn production estimate maintained at 49m tons
• 2025-26 wheat planting advanced to 95.9% complete vs 92.8% in the previous week

 

Corn Ethanol Maker FS to Build Its Fourth Mill in Brazil

Corn ethanol producer FS, an unit of Summit Agricultural Group, will invest 2 billion Brazilian Reais ($362 million) to build its fourth plant in the country, the company said in a press release.

• Works for new plant in the city of Campo Novo do Parecis, Mato Grosso state, to be concluded in Dec. 2026
• Plant will have capacity to produce 540 million liters of ethanol
• FS already operates three other units in the Mato Grosso state
• Company’s expansion plan also includes a fifth industrial unit in the municipality of Querência
  • Preparatory works in that area already began

 

Malaysian Crude Palm Oil Output Seen at 19.5M Tons in 2025: MPOB

Malaysia’s crude palm oil production may rise to 19.5 million tons in 2025 from 19.3 million tons a year earlier, helped by an easing of labor shortages, according to Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir, director general of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board.

• Palm oil exports are expected to rise to 17 million tons this year, from 16.9 million tons in 2024, he said in New Delhi on Thursday
  • Malaysia earlier predicted overseas sales of 17.2 million tons
• The Southeast Asian nation is concerned about upcoming US tariffs on palm oil
  • The Malaysian government is still negotiating with Washington on tariffs: Ahmad parveez
• The world’s second-biggest grower wants its farmers to replant trees at a faster pace to boost yields, he said

 

Indonesia’s Palm Oil Exports May Decline 5% in 2025: Gapki

Palm oil exports from Indonesia may decline to 28 million tons in 2025 from 29.5 million tons a year earlier due to an increase in domestic consumption, helped by higher biodiesel use, according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, known as Gapki.

• Crude palm oil production in the world’s biggest grower is likely to rise to 50m tons in 2025 from 48.2m tons a year earlier, Chairman Eddy Martono said in New Delhi
• Palm kernel oil output is seen rising to 5m tons from 4.6 million tons a year ago
• Indonesia’s palm oil exports to the US may climb to 2.3m to 2.4m tons in 2025, from 2.2m tons a year ago, if the tariff is reduced from 19%
• Fires and haze aren’t a threat to palm oil production as the country is well prepared to tackle the annual occurrence, he said

 

Palm Oil to Retain Edge as Soy Oil Seen Firm on Higher Bean Use

Palm oil will continue to remain competitive as rising soybean consumption in the US and Brazil is likely to tighten supply and keep soy oil prices firm, according to Sathia Varqa, an analyst with Fastmarkets Palm Oil Analytics in Singapore.

• Soybean oil use in biodiesel is gaining momentum in the US, he said at a vegetable oil conference in New Delhi on Friday
• Palm oil’s exports to India from top producers like Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to recover strongly in the second half of this year, Varqa said
  • The tropical oil commanded a premium over soybean oil for about eight months, depressing India’s palm oil imports; inbound shipments could fall for a second year in the year ending in October, he said
  • NOTE: Palm oil is generally the cheapest vegetable oil
• However, benchmark crude palm oil futures in Kuala Lumpur may face pressure during the peak production period from August to October
• Malaysian production remains stagnant, while Indonesia’s output is expected to drive a recovery
  • Global palm oil production is seen rising to 83.72m tons in 2025-26 from 82.31m tons a year earlier
  • Malaysia’s palm oil exports to the US rose in the first half of the year, but could lose market share to Indonesia in the second half

 

EU Cuts Grain Output Forecast for 2025-26 on Smaller Corn Crop

The EU’s total grain production is now estimated at 278.4m tons in the 2025-26 season, down from a June forecast of 282.9m tons, the European Commission said in its latest outlook.

• The crop projection for corn was cut to 60.1m tons from 64.6m tons
• The soft-wheat forecasts was also lowered, to 127.3m tons from 128.2m tons
• The barley outlook was slightly raised to 53.6m tons

 

French Wheat Harvest Advances; Corn Conditions Decline: AgriMer

Some 86% of France’s soft-wheat crop has been harvested as of July 21, up from 71% in the prior week and well ahead of the same time last year, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

• Corn conditions declined following a stretch of hot and dry weather
• NOTE: After a recent heat wave intensified soil dryness, heavy rains have hit most regions over the past few days. Meteo France forecasts rain and cooler weather over the weekend

 

Russia Suspends Floating Export Duty on Sunflower Oil

Russian government has suspended floating export duty rates on sunflower oil and sunflower meal, according to statement on Telegram.

• The decision should increase exports and support sunflower producers and processors
• NOTE: Russia introduced floating export duties on sunflower oil and sunflower meal in 2021 and 2022 to prevent unjustified price growth on domestic market

 

USDA attaché report notes drought, ‘sub-par’ conditions for Canada’s wheat crop

Following are selected highlights from a report issued on Thursday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service post in Ottawa:

“Marketing year (MY) 2025/26 wheat production is under pressure from sub-par spring and winter wheat conditions in key Prairie provinces — drought is a central challenge. Exports, especially durum, are strong. The 5 million metric ton (MT) year-to-date (YTD, as of May 2025) durum exports reflect robust demand, while non-durum shipments are relatively stable. Feed wheat markets are being squeezed by competition from alternative grains. Carry-out stocks are tightening in MY 2024/25. Poor crop recovery or moisture stress could pose further supply risks. The tariff situation is fluid, with ongoing negotiations and potential changes to trade policies, creating uncertainty in the wheat market. … FAS/Ottawa forecasts that total wheat production will be 35,150 thousand metric tons (MT), based on Statistics Canada’s June 27 data update on seeded area, Canada’s three-year average harvest rates, and three-year average yields of each of the three major wheat classes grown in Canada: spring wheat, durum, and winter wheat.”

 

Ukraine’s grain unions urge president to veto oilseed export duties

Ukraine’s grain unions on Thursday called on President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to veto a law introducing a 10% export duty on rapeseed and soybeans, saying it will affect local producers and damage Ukraine’s reputation in external markets.

Pro-government lawmakers proposed the duty, saying that exports of processed oilseeds could bring in more revenue than sales of raw seeds. The proposed duty would not apply to farmers who export their own products.

The country’s main agricultural associations are worried that the duty will endanger small- and medium-sized producers, according to their letter to Zelenskiy, published by the major union of food producers UAC.

“More than 75% of sown areas in Ukraine are cultivated by small- and medium-sized farmers,” they added, saying the measure contradicts Ukraine’s agreement with the EU.

Ukraine is a major European grower and exporter of oilseeds, sending abroad most of its rapeseed crop and around half of its soybean output. Those exports are currently not taxed.

 

China Deepens Angola Food-Supply Ties With Second Deal in a Week

Sinohydro Group of China will invest more than $100 million in Angola to develop new sources of grain imports — the second agriculture-related deal agreed between the two countries this week.

Angola granted Sinohydro a 25-year, tax-free land concession to develop 30,000 hectares across six eastern provinces in an agreement signed late Thursday in Luanda, the capital. Four days ago, a unit of Chinese state-owned conglomerate Citic Ltd. announced it will pend $250 million developing large-scale soybean and corn farms in Angola.

Sinohydro, active in Angola for more than two decades, will build logistics infrastructure and agriculture-support facilities using equipment already in the country to speed up deployment, Managing Director Li Xunfeng said.

“Angola has vast land but lacks basic infrastructure,” Li said on the sidelines of the signing. “This is the right time to invest — the environment here is better than in many African countries.”

The investments support an Angolan government initiative to revive large-scale farming and reduce the nation’s dependence on food imports. About 60% of production from the concession will be exported to China, with a focus on soybeans, with the rest for domestic consumption, Angolan Agriculture Minister Isaac dos Anjos told reporters at the signing ceremony.

The land will be subdivided into 500- to 1,000-hectare plots to support both commercial operators and community farmers. Sinohydro will also build a seed-research and testing center to boost productivity and draw more Chinese agribusinesses to Angola.

Angola expects to sign additional agreements with Chinese companies as interest in the sector grows. “We’ve received several proposals already, and I’m certain we’ll conclude more deals with Chinese companies,” Dos Anjos said.

Sinohydro expects the project to encourage further Chinese investment, with the firm preparing land and infrastructure to support future agribusiness projects, Dos Anjos said.

 

USDA Plans Major Relocation of Workers in Washington Area

The US Department of Agriculture will cut Washington, DC, area jobs by more than 50% and relocate employees to offices across the country in a bid to cut costs.

The agency said it expects no more than 2,000 employees in the Washington, DC, area as a result of the agency’s restructuring, down from 4,600 currently, according to a statement on Thursday. Much of the agency’s headquarters and staff will be relocated to hubs in Raleigh, North Carolina; Kansas City, Missouri; Indianapolis; Fort Collins, Colorado; and Salt Lake City.

The USDA’s move comes as the Trump administration has sought to aggressively trim what it sees as excessive government spending. The Health and State departments have begun layoffs after the Supreme Court earlier this month allowed reductions to proceed. The USDA said the restructuring is also an effort to bring its workforce closer to the people it serves.

“President Trump was elected to make real change in Washington, and we are doing just that by moving our key services outside the beltway and into great American cities across the country,” Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said in the statement.

The agency said all critical functions will continue uninterrupted, and Washington will “still hold functions for every mission area” even after the reorganization. Positions deemed critical will not be eliminated but employees may be moved.

The USDA said its workforce has grown 8% over the past four years, while salaries rose 15%, largely on temporary funding. The restructuring follows large-scale reductions across the agency. More than 15,000 employees have left the USDA through a deferred resignation program, according to the statement.

The Washington area has among the highest living costs in the country, and the agency’s presence there is “underutilized and redundant, plagued by rampant overspending and decades of mismanagement,” the USDA said.

The agency will vacate several of its buildings in Washington, including the South Building where daily occupancy is less than a third of total capacity. Regional offices are also being reorganized, with several USDA offices being consolidated to align with the hub locations, according to a memo from Rollins.

Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, who is part of the Senate’s agriculture committee, said the “half-baked” proposal will impact the agency’s ability to provide critical services, and was submitted without consulting lawmakers in farm states. Still, lawmakers representing states with USDA hubs including Indiana Senator Jim Banks and Utah Senator Mike Lee applauded the agency’s relocation efforts.

 

LIVESTOCK: US Red Meat Production Fell 1% Y/y in June

Commercial beef and pork production fell to 4.22b pounds in June, according to the USDA’s monthly livestock slaughter report.

• Beef production down 2.2% y/y to 2.09b pounds
• June cattle slaughter totaled 2.43m head, a 4.4% decline from a year ago
  • Avg live weight rose by 26 pounds from last year to 1,408 pounds
• Pork production up 0.3% y/y to 2.12b pounds
• Hog slaughter increased 0.5% y/y to 9,967m head
  • Avg live weight was 286 pounds vs 287 pounds a year ago

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 731k tons in the week ending July 19 from 554k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 44.9% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 38.4% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $18.23 per short ton, an increase of $2.27 from the previous week

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending July 22: USDA

The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending July 22, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Drought conditions in corn-growing areas remained at 9% in the week
• Drought in soybean areas 8% vs 7%

 

 

 

 

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