Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
NATURAL GAS
September Natural Gas is higher this morning after falling to its lowest level since November 14 yesterday. The market has been under the pressure since the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day last week. Above average increases in US gas supply this summer have also been pressuring the market, as has an increase in US gas rigs in operation. For the US EIA storage report today, the Reuters poll has an average expectation for a net injection of 33 bcf for the week ending July 18 (range +25 to +43). The five-year average change for the week is +28 bcf.
CRUDE OIL
September Crude Oil is finding some support this morning as there seems to be movement towards a trade deal with Europe, which follows a deal announced with Japan earlier this week, and this is providing a bit of a bullish tone regarding demand. Two European diplomats said yesterday that deal could include a 15% U.S. baseline tariff on EU imports and possible exemptions. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said yesterday that he will meet his Chinese counterpart next week in Stockholm and discuss what is expected to be an extension of an August 12 deadline for a deal to avert sharply higher tariffs. Yesterday’s EIA report was bullish for crude oil and gasoline and bearish for diesel, with crude oil and gasoline stocks falling more than expected last week and distillate stocks increasing rather than falling. However, the increase in distillate stocks was smaller than the what the API report indicated. Implied gasoline demand was higher than the previous week but was still down from a year ago.
PRODUCTS
The EIA numbers yesterday were supportive to gasoline and bearish for diesel.
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