Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are lower. USD is lower. Crude is lower and near $65. Gold is lower. US Midwest should see showers. Trump tariffs Aug 1. Some look for lower energy demand and prices which could keep inflation in check. US Conference Board Leading Economic Index dropped in June. The Index is now down 37 of last 40 months. June Index is lowest since March, 2015.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 10.01. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were higher. Palmoil and soyoil were lower. North and east corn belt rains should help US soybean crop. USDA dropped crop ratings 2 pct to 68 pct G/E vs 68 ly. Still, above average US crop and record Brazil crop should continue to weigh on futures. There remains too much World protein supply. US soybean exports are near 46.6 mmt (1,719 mil bu). This is up 10 pct vs ly and USDA up 9. US cash basis lower. BOU prices less competitive to World buyers. Brazil basis firmed on talk of Increase China buying, This despite increase farmer selling.
CORN
CU is near 4.01. Dalian corn futures were higher. North and east corn belt rains should help US corn crop. USDA left crop rating at 74 pct G/E vs 67 ly. 56 pct of crop is silking vs 58 average. Above average US crop and record Brazil crop should continue to weigh on futures. There remains too much World new crop corn supply. US corn exports are near 58.8 mmt (2,316 mil bu). This is up 28 pct vs ly and USDA up 22. US cash basis unchanged. Brazil safrinha crop harvest is delayed. This is offering support to Brazil basis. US export prices are near $204 vs Brazil $208, Argentina $200 and Ukraine $250.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.38. KWU is near 5.22. MWU is near 5.87 and near season lows. Russia export wheat prices are higher which could help US and EU export demand. Some look for WZ in 5.40-5.70 range. Support is from talk of lower Russia yields and firm cash markets.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
Global Ag News For Aug 14.2025
August 14, 2025
PPI Inflation Could Complicate Rate Path
August 14, 2025
