Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher. USD is lower. Crude is lower and near $65. Gold is higher. US Midwest should see showers. 8-14 day warmer and drier. 12Z 10 day has rains north and east. MO and AR are dry. Trump tariffs Aug 1. Some look for lower energy demand and prices which could keep inflation in check. Russia continues to bomb Ukraine.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 10.11. North and east corn belt rains should help US soybean crop. USDA could increase crop ratings 1 pct today. Managed funds sold 26,000 soybean futures last week. Open interest is higher. Volume increased Friday. Above average US crop and record Brazil crop should weigh on futures. Soymeal corrected and oversold tech picture. There remains too much World protein supply. Soymeal futures open interest record high. Higher soyoil prices reducing biofuel margins. Soyoil open interest record high. Funds long 39,000 soyoil and short record 131,00 soymeal.
CORN
CU is near 4.06. US domestic basis is firm on slow farmer selling and tighter 24/25 supply vs demand. Both crushers and exporters are bidding for corn. Record Brazil crop should reduce US 25/26 corn exports. Trump suggesting Coke to use cane sugar vs HFCS offered resistance. 1,200 mil bu of US corn is used for food products. Corn open interest is declining to season low. Volume is also below normal. 20 day moving average near 4.04. Most of US Midwest should see rain and normal temps. 52-55 pct of crop is silking. Brazil second crop harvest should be near 77 pct. C MG prices near 3.20-3.25. Advantage Brazil.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.47. Open interest is increasing on higher volume. Key resistance is near 5.50. KWU is near 5.29. Open interest is also increasing on higher volume. Key resistance is near 5.34. MWU is near 5.95 and near season lows. Open interest is also declining on lower volume, Russia bombed Ukraine Odesa port. Russia export wheat prices are higher which could help US and EU export demand. Some look for WZ in 5.50-5.80 rane. Support is from talk of lower Russia yields and firm cash markets. Resistance is from talk of good summer S Hemisphere crops.
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