Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are mixed. USD is higher. Crude is unch near $65. Gold is lower. Will US and EU reach a trade deal? US Midwest should see showers. US S plains dry and warmer. W EU wet. E EU, Ukraine and Russia warm and dry.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 10.05. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. SX tested midpoint of 2025 range near 10.20 on talk of drier Delta and south ECB and warmer weather. Soybeans also rallied on flash sale of US soybeans to unknown thought to be China. Trade expects SX to eventually trade below 10.00 due to higher supply. Soyoil should continue to gain vs soymeal. Soyoil pct of crush near 50 pct. Crush margins near season highs. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 200-600 mt old crop vs 503 last week and 150-400 mt new vs 248 last week. Weekly US soymeal export sales are est at 100-400 mt old crop vs 207 last week and 100-300 mt new vs 370 last week.
CORN
CU is near 4.04. Dalian corn futures were lower and new contract low. US domestic basis is firm on slow farmer selling and tighter 24/25 supply vs demand. Both crushers and exporters are bidding for corn. Record Brazil crop should reduce US 25/26 corn exports. Higher US Crop and lower exports could increase carryout over 2,000 mil bu which should eventually trade futures below 3.80. Trump suggesting Coke to use cane sugar vs HFCS offered resistance. 1,200 mil bu of US corn is used for food products. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 500-1,200 mt old crop vs 1,262 last week and 400-900 mt new vs 888 last week. There are rumors of some IL/MO corn hybrids yield potential due to tight tassel wrap.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.39. KWU is near 5.21. WU and KWU are near lower end of price range due to talk of lower export demand. MWU is near 6.00. MWU-MWZ widened out to -20 suggest increase supply. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 300-700 mt old crop vs 567 last week. World wheat supply appears adequate for demand and reduces need for funds to cover additional shorts.
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