Global Ag News For July 8.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Starbucks Is Looking to Remove Canola Oil From Its Food Menu

Starbucks Corp. is exploring how to remove canola oil from its food lineup in the US.

In one example, the company is considering making its egg white and roasted red pepper bites without canola oil, a spokesperson said in response to an inquiry from Bloomberg News. The company will also add a new egg bite to its menu that is made with avocado oil.

The coffee chain is in the midst of a brand revamp as it seeks to reverse a sales slump, and one of its priorities is testing products that appeal to more health-conscious consumers. In June, Starbucks Chief Executive Officer Brian Niccol pledged in a meeting with US Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to further align the chain’s menu with the Trump administration’s health priorities, Kennedy said in a post on X.

Starbucks’ US menu has a number of items that contain canola oil, including a bacon, gouda and egg sandwich, as well as potato bakes. Starbucks didn’t provide a timeline for the changes to its food lineup.

Seed oils, such as soybean and canola, have become a target for Kennedy and his allies, though multiple meta-analyses have indicated they have no significant impact on inflammation or the risk of dying from cardiovascular disease.

The health push is showing up in other places on Starbucks’ menu. The chain removed sugar from its matcha powder in a move that boosted sales, Niccol said during an April earnings call. It also nixed an upcharge for nondairy milk and a recent pilot involves unsweetened protein powder, which can be added to any cold foam flavor.

The chain’s latest US beverage launch was a limited-time Fourth of July themed Frappuccino. The 16-ounce version contains 59 grams of sugar, according to the chain’s website. The American Heart Association recommends that men consume less than 36 grams of added sugar a day and women less than 25 grams.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1/4 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, down 4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/2; Soybeans down 1 3/4; Soymeal down $1.30; Soyoil up 0.19.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 14 1/4 in SRW, down 13 in HRW, down 14 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 18 3/4; Soybeans down 29 3/4; Soymeal down $7.20; Soyoil down 0.62.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 10 in SRW, up 1/2 in HRW, up 12 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 8 1/4; Soybeans down 8; Soymeal down $4.70; Soyoil up 1.30.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.1% in SRW, down 9.1% in HRW, up 4.2% in HRS; Corn is down 9.2%; Soybeans up 4.2%; Soymeal down 12.7%; Soyoil up 35.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans down 1 yuan; Soymeal down 10; Soyoil up 12; Palm oil up 108; Corn down 17 — Malaysian Palm is up 76.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 76 ringgit (+1.87%) at 4147.

There were changes in registrations (86 Soybeans). Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 1,001 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 1,856 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 7 were: SRW Wheat up 4,964 contracts, HRW Wheat down 838, Corn up 2,910, Soybeans up 4,911, Soymeal up 5,911, Soyoil up 43.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 07 JULY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: A lack of dry weather in the forecast across the U.S. Corn/Soy Belts should bode well for croplands during the next 10 days
• SOUTH AMERICA: Large rainfall deficits up to 60 mm below normal are expected in Southern Brazil through the next 10 days
• EAST ASIA: Widespread warmth is expected across most of China during the next 10+ days
• BLACK SEA: Widespread and significant warmth is expected across the Black Sea region during the next 10-15 days
• TELECONNECTIONS: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is expected to remain in a positive phase event during the next two weeks

WET WEATHER IN THE PAMPAS, DRY IN BRAZIL

What to Watch:

• Wet weather in the Pampas
• Dry in Brazil; isolated wet spells in far Southeast

Northern Plains: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near normal Monday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Midwest West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Midwest East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for 7/7 had funds: net sellers of 4,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 12,000 corn, sellers of 11,000 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 135,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico, including 29,000 tons for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year that began September 1, 2024, and the remaining 106,000 tons for 2025/26 delivery.

PENDING TENDERS

• SOYMEAL TENDER: South Korean animal feed maker Major Feedmill Group, or MFG, issued an international tender to purchase up to 60,000 metric tons of soymeal sourced optionally from South America, the United States or China
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 240,000 tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 tons of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

TODAY

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 74% G/E, Soybeans 66%

Highlights from the report:

• Corn 74% G/E vs 73% last week, and 68% a year ago
• Soybeans 66% G/E vs 66% last week, and 68% a year ago
• Winter wheat 48% G/E vs 48% last week, and 51% a year ago
• Spring wheat 50% G/E vs 53% last week, and 75% a year ago
• Winter wheat harvest 53% vs 37% last week, and 62% a year ago
• Cotton 52% G/E vs 51% last week, and 45% a year ago

 

US Inspected 1.491m Tons of Corn for Export, 389k of Soybeans

In week ending July 3, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 389k tons vs 237k the previous wk, 294k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,491k tons vs 1,381k the previous wk, 1,024k a yr ago
• Wheat: 437k tons vs 477k the previous wk, 343k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: July 3

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending July 3 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Egypt-bound shipments made up 89k tons of the 389k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

Brazil sets a new record for soybean exports

Brazil soybean exports are advancing rapidly. As of July 7, LSEG’s trade flows tracked 67.4 million tons of soybean shipments since February, 3.0% ahead of last year’s record pace, with exports to China at 47.6 million tons. The latest line-up report (released on July 3) shows that 10.4 million tons of soybeans have been scheduled for delivery in July, a 12% increase year-on-year. Brazil harvested 169.3 million tons of soybeans this year—22 million more than last year—boosting exports. The accelerated export pace is also driven by concerns over US trade negotiations, which may prompt international buyers to turn to the US after September when its new crop soybeans become available. Brazil is accelerating exports to minimize risks related to geopolitical tensions. We estimate Brazil soybean exports at 108.3 million tons for 2024/25 and 112 million tons for 2025/26.

US cumulative soybean exports since September rose 10.4% year-over-year to 46.25 million tons, with June exports at 1.33 million tons. Total 2024/25 exports are projected at 50.6 million tons. Planting reductions will constrain US soybean production this year, with LSEG estimating output at 118 million tons —1 million less than last season. Despite mostly favorable weather so far, final yield and production will be affected by weather conditions throughout July to September. Due to ongoing uncertainty in US-China trade talks, we estimate 2025/26 US soybean exports at 47.1 million tons, reflecting the negative effects of trade tensions.

 

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest 28% Done as of July 3: AgRural

Pace compares with 18% a week earlier and 63% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• “Although the progress of work is still below expectations in all states in the region, the reduction in rainfall observed last week helped harvest to gain a little more pace,” AgRural said

 

USDA FAS Forecast Turkey Wheat Imports at 10.3m Ton, Above WASDE

Imports of wheat in Turkey in the 2025-26 season is forecast at 10.3m tons, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service said in a report.

• The forecast is 2.75m tons higher than the official USDA forecast figure
• It would mean imports were around 3 times higher than the season before
  • NOTE: Last year Turkey had an import ban for foreign wheat, followed by a quota system until end of 2024.
• Import increased to make up for a shortfall in domestic production, which is seen at 16.3m tons by the FAS attaché
  • Production decline y/y is due to drier weather
• “Turkish flour exporters hope to regain market share lost the prior marketing year after the government limited wheat imports”: USDA FAS
• Barley production was also seen lower y/y resulting in higher imports
• Corn production was seen similar to USDA official forecast, due to large irrigation systems preventing dryness damage

 

Indonesian Palm Oil Exports to US May Drop Up to 20% on Tariffs

Indonesia’s palm oil exports to the US may drop by 15%-20% due to higher tariff threat compared to neighboring Malaysia, says M. Hadi Sugeng Wahyudiono, secretary general of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association known as Gapki, via text messages on Tuesday.

• Shipments to the US may fall to 1.9m tons this year from average of 2.25m tons in the past three years
• Gapki seeks to expand palm oil markets in the Middle East and Africa as alternatives
• Palm oil’s competitiveness may decline if other vegetable oil exporter nations get lower tariffs
• Malaysian palm oil may fill in for Indonesia’s share in the US

 

Malaysia says U.S. will bear costs of increased tariffs on palm oil

Malaysia’s plantations and commodities minister said on Tuesday U.S. importers will have to bear the cost of additional tariffs on palm oil, as there was no alternative to the commodity in the United States.

Johari Abdul Ghani’s comments came after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on Malaysian exports to the United States, effective August 1.

 

Bunge charters first Argentine soy meal cargo to China

• Bunge charters Argentine soymeal cargo to China, data shows
• First cargo since Beijing approved imports in 2019
• Seen as test case for potential long-term Argentina/China soymeal trade
• Shipment signifies shift for China which imports hardly any soymeal

U.S. grains trading group Bunge BG.N has chartered 30,000 metric tons of Argentine soybean meal cargo destined for China, data seen by Reuters on Monday showed, marking the first such soymeal cargo since Beijing approved Argentine imports in 2019.

Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean meal. China, meanwhile, is the world’s largest importer of soybeans, though does not typically buy soybean meal, rather it processes the beans itself to produce the meal it uses as animal feed.

According to data from local maritime agency NABSA, Bunge will ship the soybean meal from the Terminal 6 facility it operates with Argentina’s AGD in San Lorenzo, north of the farm hub city of Rosario, where the vessel NORDTAJO is expected to dock around July 16 to transport the cargo.

Ship tracking data on LSEG Workspace shows the vessel currently positioned off the west coast of Africa on route to San Lorenzo.

Bunge in Argentina did not respond to a request to comment.

Reuters reported last month that several Chinese animal feed makers had signed a deal for a maiden soymeal shipment as China’s animal feed industry looks to broaden its supply options to mitigate potential disruptions from the U.S.-China trade war.

The shipment is seen as a test case for China, which currently imports hardly any soybean meal. If successful, it could potentially nudge open what has been a largely closed market.

“It is a very important shipment that Bunge is making in July because it implies a real and effective opening of trade,” Gustavo Idigoras, head of Argentina’s CIARA-CEC chamber of oilseed and grains crushers and exporters, told Reuters.

“This should allow for a permanent flow in the future,” he said, adding that Argentine soymeal was “very competitive” in both quality and price compared to local Chinese production.

Most of the soybeans China imports come from Brazil and the United States. Chinese buyers have been scooping up Brazilian soybeans and shunning U.S. exports due to high tariffs imposed amid an ongoing trade war between Beijing and Washington.

In 2024, Argentina exported a total of 27.2 million tons of soybean meal, valued at $10.55 billion. Vietnam was the main destination for shipments, accounting for 15% of the total.

China opened its market to Argentine soymeal in 2019 after years of resistance motivated by a desire to protect its domestic crushing industry. Despite the approval, no purchases of bulk cargoes of Argentine soymeal had been recorded until now, according to Chinese customs data.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Wheat mills increase imports from Argentina

The low domestic supply and concerns about the possible area decrease in the current season have been leading wheat mills in Brazil to increase, month by month, the purchases of the product from Argentina. Moreover, despite recent price drops in Brazil, the wheat from Argentina is still more attractive than the national one. So far, the volume imported this year has been above that verified in the same period in 2024.

Based on data from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), between June 23 and 27, the import parity price for the wheat from Argentina delivered to Paraná state was at USD 248.75/ton. Considering the average of the US dollar in that period, at BRL 5.4996, the wheat imported was sold at BRL 1,368.04/ton, while for the Brazilian wheat traded in Paraná, the average was at BRL 1,491.59/ton, according to data from Cepea. In Rio Grande do Sul, the price of the product from Argentina closed at USD 232.84/ton, which accounts for BRL 1,280.53/ton – against BRL 1,342.97/ton on the average of the state calculated by Cepea.

According to data from Secex, Brazil imported 487.04 thousand tons of wheat in June, and 94.1% of this amount came from Argentina (458.18 thousand tons) and only 5.9% from Paraguay (28.85 thousand tons).

In the first semester, imports totaled 3.58 million tons, 6.3% more than the volume registered in the same period last year (3.6 million tons) – data from Secex.

 

Bartlett Completes Acquisition of Global Agriculture Company Ceres Global Ag Corp.

GOLDEN VALLEY, Minn., July 7, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — Bartlett, a Savage company, announced today that it has successfully completed its acquisition of Ceres Global Ag Corp., a Minnesota-based agricultural, energy and industrial products supply chain company with operations across the U.S. Northern Plains and Canada. Bartlett has received all necessary court, shareholder, and regulatory approvals for the take-private transaction, which was announced in May this year.

With the addition of Ceres, Bartlett expands its operational footprint and grain merchandising capabilities, adding approximately 45 million bushels of total grain and oilseed storage capacity, including joint venture assets, across 13 locations in Minnesota, North Dakota, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan. Ceres also brings deep experience in trading key commodities including spring wheat, durum, oats, and canola.

 

US Beef Production Falls 15.4% This Week, Pork Down: USDA

US federally inspected beef production falls to 409m pounds for the week ending July 5 from 484m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter down 15.4% from a week ago to 474m head
• Pork production down 23.5% from a week ago, hog slaughter falls 23.2%
• For the year, beef production is 3.4% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 1.8% below

 

 

 

 

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