Global Ag News For June 25.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Brazil’s Corn Crop Gets Even Bigger Than Previously Expected

Expectations for Brazil’s record corn crop are getting even bigger, signaling increased competition for US farmers, as consultancy firm Agroconsult raised its forecasts on exceptionally good weather and increasing yields.

The world’s second-largest supplier of the grain is seen producing 123.3 million metric tons of corn this winter in the Southern Hemisphere, bringing the 2024-25 season’s total to 150.3 million tons, according to Agroconsult. That is far above estimates from both the US Department of Agriculture and Brazil’s National Supply Company.

“It’s the mother of all corn crops,” Agroconsult President André Pessôa told journalists Tuesday. The firm’s latest estimate came 10 million metric tons above a previous forecast in May, projecting a 16% annual increase in production.

“The challenge now is where to export that to, because there is competition,” he said, pointing to growing supplies in the US, Argentina and Ukraine.

Agroconsult expects Brazil to export 44.5 million tons of corn this marketing year, 19% more than in the previous season. The Brazilian bumper crop comes at a time when prices for corn are under pressure, having dropped about 17% from a February high.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, up 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans down 3; Soymeal down $1.50; Soyoil up 0.10.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 31 3/4 in SRW, down 29 3/4 in HRW, down 14 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 14 1/2; Soybeans down 24 1/4; Soymeal down $4.10; Soyoil down 2.06.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 1 3/4 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, up 5 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 12 3/4; Soybeans up 7 1/4; Soymeal down $14.90; Soyoil up 5.06.

Year-to-Date nearby futures are down 2.9% in SRW, down 4.6% in HRW, up 4.8% in HRS; Corn is down 9.8%; Soybeans up 4.9%; Soymeal down 9.2%; Soyoil up 32.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans down 49 yuan; Soymeal down 20; Soyoil down 50; Palm oil down 50; Corn down 12 — Malaysian Palm is down 20.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 20 ringgit (-0.50%) at 3963.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 24 were: SRW Wheat down 733 contracts, HRW Wheat down 3,205, Corn down 5,602, Soybeans down 8,281, Soymeal down 3,250, Soyoil up 1,305.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 25 JUNE 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: High precipitation activity will continue across the U.S. Corn Belt over the next 10 days, while the Canadian Prairies are expected to remain much drier
• SOUTH AMERICA: Frost was recorded across Rio Grande do Sul and parts of Paraná in the past 24 hours, with minimum temperatures ranging from -1 °C to -4 °C
• AFRICA: Rains over the next two weeks in West Africa will support the main cocoa crop development
• EAST ASIA: Heavy rains in the southern North China Plain have erased soil moisture deficits, creating favorable conditions for summer crops
• TROPICS: Tropical Storm Sepat has weakened to a tropical depression and will continue tracking near the eastern coast of Japan today

 

LARGELY MIXED WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA

What to Watch:

• Warmth likely to prevail into the foreseeable future
• Mixed precipitation pattern to close out June

  

Northern Plains: Recent severe weather in North Dakota has produced substantial damage. But there was also meaningful rainfall in some drier areas, especially in Montana where drought has been the most intense in the region. Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the region through the weekend and could produce more meaningful rainfall while some areas get missed.

Central/Southern Plains: A front will remain stalled across northern areas for most of the week, continuing chances for showers and thunderstorms, but also some severe weather. Southern areas will get a fair chance to dry out, which would help the wheat harvest, though there may be some severe storms to deal with in the southwest this week as well. Those would be spotty. After a brief bout of very hot temperatures over the weekend, temperatures are falling below normal behind the front and near normal east of the front.

Midwest: A front is largely stalled from the northwest through the Great Lakes for the next couple of days. This will be the focus for widespread showers and thunderstorms and ease the heat across the north and west. Flow coming north from the Gulf will produce isolated showers across the south that could mean small areas of heavy downpours, but generally dry conditions are expected as most areas get missed. The front will sag a little farther south for Friday and Saturday while another front sweeps through Sunday and Monday with more widespread showers and thunderstorms possible.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Flow coming north from the Gulf will continue to produce isolated showers throughout the week. While most areas will see drier conditions that would help to drain soils and promote growth, some areas could see heavy downpours. A front will move into the region early next week and if it stalls, could produce more heavy rainfall potential.

Canadian Prairies: Disturbances moving through this week will produce scattered showers while another system will move through Friday and Saturday that could produce more widespread precipitation. But even with these systems, showers should come via thunderstorm clusters that have a tendency on missing some areas. Even so, the rain that does fall will certainly be useful. Temperatures were cold this weekend behind the system and some patchy frost likely occurred in parts of Alberta, which continued on Monday and Tuesday mornings as well. Temperatures will be rising now for the rest of the week to eliminate the threat.

 

The player sheet for 6/24 had funds: net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 7,000 corn, sellers of 500 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and sellers of 1,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 630,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico, including 554,400 tons for shipment in the 2025/26 marketing year and 75,600 tons for shipment in the 2026/27 marketing year.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
• FAILED WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of wheat which closed on Tuesday. 

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 280,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 tons of milling wheat.
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued a new international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

CROP SURVEY: US Planting Seen Little Changed Before USDA Report

US farmers are expected to have deviated very little from their original planting intentions this season, according to the avg est. of as many as 33 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

• Corn planting seen at 95.4m acres vs 95.3m from USDA’s March Prospective Plantings survey
• Survey range 93.8m to 96.8m acres
• Soybean planting seen at 83.5m acres, unchanged from the March est.
• Wheat area seen unchanged at 45.4m acres

 

CROP SURVEY: US Corn Stocks Seen Lower Ahead of USDA Report

US June 1 stockpiles of corn stored on farms and commercial facilities seen about 372m bu less than in the same period last year, according to the avg est. of as many as 24 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

• Soybean stocks seen at 974m bu vs 970m bu a year ago
• Wheat stocks seen up 20% to 836m bu

 

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending June 20 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.103m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 24.224m bbl vs 24.12m a week ago

 

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US June 1 Hog Herd Seen at 74.77M Head

June 1 hog inventory seen down 0.2% y/y, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts.

• Breeding inventory seen down 0.1% y/y, and market hogs seen falling 0.2% y/y
• The March-May pig crop seen rising by 1% y/y to 34.07m head
• March-May farrowing seen falling by 0.3% y/y
• Farrowing intentions for June-Aug seen down 0.5% and Sept-Nov seen up 0.6%
• USDA is scheduled to release its quarterly estimates at 3pm ET on June 26

 

Russia aims to boost grains, vegoil exports to Iran

• Rusagrotrans expects Russian wheat exports to Iran to triple
• Corn, barley, vegoil exports to Iran set to grow
• New marketing season with no restrictions kicks off on July 1
• Iran seeks new contracts for corn, barley

Russia aims to boost grains and vegetable oil exports to Iran through the Caspian Sea in the coming months, thanks to an anticipated larger harvest this year and an end to trading restrictions, market analysts and traders said on Tuesday.

Trade between Russia and Iran, both heavily sanctioned by the West, grew by 16% to $4.8 billion last year. It primarily goes through the inland Caspian Sea, whose coastline is shared by Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan.

“There is potential to increase our supplies of corn, barley, and sunflower oil to the Iranian market,” said Andrei Kucherov, head of agriculture at Reksoft, a consulting firm, partly owned by billionaire Vladimir Potanin’s Interros holding.

Igor Pavensky, chief analyst at rail carrier Rusagrotrans, said Iran could triple Russian wheat imports to 3-4 million tons in the coming season and boost corn and barley imports to 3.6 million tons from 2.6 million.

Iran is the largest buyer of Russian corn and the second-largest buyer of Russian barley. After a pause due to a good harvest last year, Iran resumed wheat purchases from Russia in March, becoming the third-largest buyer in May.

“We are expecting a record sunflower seeds harvest this year. Corn, as well as barley and wheat, are in a good shape. So we have all the possibilities there (to increase supplies to Iran),” said Dmitry Rylko, head of IKAR consultancy.

Russian traders said Iran explored the pricing and availability of corn and barley from Russia over recent days.

Afghanistan is also in talks with Russia to import certain foodstuffs, a minister told Reuters recently.

 

Brazil soy exports seen reaching 14.99 million tons in June – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 14.99 MILLION TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 14.36 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.92 MILLION TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 1.97 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 828,959 TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 913,316 TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

Japan Removes Restrictions on Purchases of Chicken From Brazil

Japan, which had previously suspended purchases from Montenegro city, now has no restrictions on Brazilian chicken purchases, Brazil’s agriculture ministry said in a statement.

• Purchases had been suspended from Montenegro city after bird flu case at a commercial farm in the city

 

China Has Huge Potential in Agri-food Sector, Vice Premier Says

China is building a stable and open environment of trade and business which offers opportunities and cooperation for foreign firms, Vice Premier He Lifeng told Louis Dreyfus Chairperson Margarita Louis-Dreyfus in a meeting, Xinhua News Agency reports.

• He highlighted the significant potential in China’s agriculture-food industry

 

Senator Says Tyson Foods Among ‘Monopolists’ in Beef Industry

Republican Sen. Josh Hawley says Tyson Foods is among “the monopolists” in the beef-processing industry.

• Hawley says the top four companies in the beef-processing industry are a “modern-day monopoly”
• Hawley then calls for more US industry competition in a post on X

 

Malaysia Committed to Deforestation-Free Palm Oil Trade: Johari

Malaysia is fully committed to driving global progress in a sustainable, responsible and deforestation-free palm oil trade, according to Plantation and Commodities Minister Johari Abdul Ghani

• This week’s signing of the free-trade agreement between Malaysia and members of the European Free Trade Association will provide a stronger platform for the country’s palm oil industry to compete in global sustainability-driven markets, he said in a Wednesday statement
  • Signing also reinforces market access and tariff advantages for palm oil certified as Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil, or MSPO, the national certification
• The trade deal will be “an important reference point” for Malaysia’s position in ongoing free-trade agreement negotiations with 27 EU member states
• Ministry to ensure MSPO is fully reflected and protected in all future trade agreements, including with the EU

 

Recent rains and improved spring wheat conditions increase Russia wheat production

2025/26 RUSSIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 81.9 [80.3-86.0] MILLION TONS, UP 1.6% FROM LAST UPDATE

Recent rains in Ural and Volga Districts, increase 2025/26 Russian wheat production to 81.9 [80.3-86.4] million tons (MMT). Our estimate consists of 56.2 MMT of winter wheat and 25.7 MMT of spring wheat and does not include the occupied Ukrainian Oblasts.

Over the past two weeks, temperatures were moderate to cool across much of the European parts, while the Ural and Siberian Districts experienced warmer conditions. Significant rainfall surpluses (15-30 mm above normal) were noted in the Vladimir and Tyumen Oblast, as well as in Bashkortostan, Chelyabinsk, and Chuvash Republic, improving soil moisture levels. Vegetation density index (NDVI) values in the Ural and Siberian Districts remain above the long-term median, confirming good crop conditions. Spring wheat yield potential was thus raised to 2.03 t/ha.

According to the latest weather forecasts, cooler weather conditions should remain over the main wheat-producing Districts for the next two weeks. Precipitation-wise, moderate rainfall is expected across the continent, which should help replenish soil moisture reserves in other currently dry areas.

 

Crop areas in Southern Europe face elevated risk of heat and dryness in July

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

What to Watch:

• Spring crops across Southern Europe face the highest risk of heat and dryness in July
• Rainfall in Western and Central Europe could be insufficient due to already declining soil moisture
• Conditions likely to worsen across Ukraine, while improvements are possible in Russia
• Continuation of favorable outlook for spring crops across Kazakhstan and Siberian District

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.