Favorable Weather in Texas

COTTON

December Cotton extended Wednesday’s selloff slightly overnight. Weekly US crop conditions have been coming in close to normal levels despite wet soils and lower production expected out of parts of the Delta. World Weather Service say West Texas will see limited rainfall over the next week or so, but crop improvements are likely because of recent rain. They also expect the rain return later next week. The Delta could see drier weather over the next couple of weeks, the question being whether this will be too late to help the crop there. Texas has the largest planted area, much of it dryland, so adequate rainfall is pivotal to the size of the US crop overall. It won’t take much to improve on last week’s dismal numbers in today’s export sales report.

COFFEE

September NY Coffee was close to unchanged overnight following selloff on Wednesday that took it to its lowest level since January 20 as well as the 200-day moving average. The market is being led by the London (robusta) futures, which fell to their lowest level since August on Wednesday. The advancement of the Brazilian robusta harvest as well as increased supply from Indonesia have eased supply tightness and put pressure on cash prices globally. Domestic robusta prices in Vietnam fell to their lowest levels since May 2023 this week. Hurricane Erick bought some heavy rain in coffee areas of Guerrero, Mexico, but World Weather Service says crop damage is not very likely. Brazil may see some cooler weather early next week, but no permanently damaging cold is expected. Brazil rainfall last week has slowed harvest a bit. Cooxupe, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative, said on Wednesday that its farmers had harvested 17.8% of the expected 2025 crop as of June 13 versus 26.6% at the same time last year.

COCOA

September Cocoa gapped lower overnight following a sharply lower move in the London market yesterday. Traders seem to have put aside concerns about the slow arrivals pace in Ivory Coast and are focusing instead on the fact that West Africa has seen a pattern of consistent rain in recent weeks that has boosted the outlook for the 2025/26 main crop. There were some farmers complaining about not having enough sunshine last week that could slow pod drying and cause mold, but apparently not enough to offset the long term benefits of good rainfall after the dry conditions last year and early this year. World Weather Service says routinely occurring rainfall is expected in cocoa production areas from Ivory Coast to Nigeria and Cameroon during the next week to ten days. All crop areas will be impacted at one time or another and daily amounts will be light to moderate, with a few infrequent strong thunderstorms producing some heavy rain.

SUGAR

October Sugar was higher overnight following a move to its lowest level since March 2023 on Wednesday. At Wednesday’s low, the market had dropped 2.26 cents (12%) from its May 13 high and 3.56 (18%) from its March 18 high, and it may have been too much to ask to keep pushing lower in the face of a crude oil market rallying off war concerns. Earlier this week, Brazil’s Copersucar, the world’s largest sugar trader, said that sugarcane harvested by its partners was expected to meet or exceed 2024/25 levels, and the UNICA report on Monday showed Brazil’s Center South sugar production for the second half of May was +8.9% from a year ago, beating expectations for +4.2%. Crop expectations for India and Thailand have been boosted by indications that monsoon rainfall will be good this year.

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