Global Ag News For June 12.2025

TOP HEADLINES

US Ethanol Output Reaches Record High as Americans Hit the Road

US ethanol production climbed to an all-time high last week, a strong start to what’s expected to be a busy season for American road trips.

• Output of the corn-based biofuel mixed with gasoline to power cars rose 1.4% from the prior week to a record 1.12 million barrels per day, surpassing all estimates in a Bloomberg survey, according to the US Energy Department
  • Level is highest ever based on Bloomberg data going back to June 2010
• Ethanol and crude oil stockpiles fell last week as refineries work to meet summer season demand
• Fuel tracker Gas Buddy has forecast a robust season of summer travel this year, in spite of US economic uncertainty
• NOTE: The Trump administration has granted nationwide sales of higher-ethanol blends this summer

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 in SRW, up 1 3/4 in HRW, up 6 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans down 4 1/2; Soymeal up $1.90; Soyoil down 0.25.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 23 1/4 in SRW, down 25 1/2 in HRW, down 14 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 9 3/4; Soybeans down 13 3/4; Soymeal down $1.10; Soyoil up 0.11.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 1 1/4 in SRW, down 5 1/4 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 2 3/4; Soybeans up 4 1/4; Soymeal down $0.20; Soyoil up 0.62.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.6% in SRW, down 6.3% in HRW, up 4.2% in HRS; Corn is down 5.0%; Soybeans up 4.5%; Soymeal down 4.2%; Soyoil up 20.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans up 15 yuan; Soymeal up 6; Soyoil down 20; Palm oil down 20; Corn down 4 — Malaysian Palm is down 1.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 1 ringgit (-0.03%) at 3838.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 11 were: SRW Wheat down 5,221 contracts, HRW Wheat down 3,368, Corn up 199, Soybeans down 9,400, Soymeal up 5,020, Soyoil down 2,428.

 

Northern Plains: More widespread showers may try to tag South Dakota into northern Nebraska during the middle of the week with a second round of widespread rain showers moving through later Thursday into Friday. The second round could benefit some of the drier soils throughout the Dakotas as the region is in need of more precipitation. Early next week could feature additional rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms which would be favorable for developing wheat.

Central/Southern Plains: Upper-air troughing will keep the pattern active across Oklahoma and Texas this week with daily chances for showers and storms, some of which could be severe. Eastern Texas could see heavy rain and flooding throughout the second half of this week. The Central Plains are still dealing with widespread drought from northern Kansas into Nebraska, and the developing corn, soybeans, and maturing wheat could use more rain but it’s expected to remain spotty into the end of the week.

Midwest: A slow-moving front will provide some areas of heavier rainfall to the northwest Corn Belt Wednesday into Thursday with another system moving through on Friday. Precipitation is expected to linger in the eastern Midwest this weekend. While southern areas stay on the drier side into the end of the week, more rainfall is expected by the weekend. Overall, the pattern looks active next week as well, favorable for building soil moisture in northwest areas but unfavorable for those trying to get fieldwork done.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Wet conditions continue across the Delta through the weekend but more rain is not needed. The rainy pattern could continue into next week as well, which doesn’t bode well for those trying to finish cotton planting or start wheat harvest. While the Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, the risk for any tropical systems entering the Gulf of America and impacting the Delta looks minimal over the next week.

Canadian Prairies: Multiple disturbances are expected to pass through the Prairies into next week, providing some areas of heavier rain at times. The more active weather pattern is favorable for early growth as well as reducing the risks for wildfires. Slightly cooler air will favor eastern areas through the next few days while the warmest temperatures favor western areas into early next week.

Brazil: A drier stretch of weather across most of the main growing areas starts on Tuesday and is expected to linger into Friday before a larger system develops late this week into the weekend across southern areas. The potential for heavy rain this weekend threatens the harvest pace but wheat could use more rain for establishment.

Argentina: High pressure will keep conditions dry through much of the week, allowing for corn and soybean harvest to continue without precipitation disruptions. As winter wheat continues to be planted, it could use more rain, which will come by the end of the week. A storm system will form across northern Argentina Friday and continue through Saturday, providing some areas of heavy rain. While the late-week rain will be beneficial for planted wheat, it will likely slow down corn and soybean harvest for a few days.

Europe: A front will move through eastern Europe Thursday, providing spotty showers. Southern areas of Europe will remain relatively dry this week but maturing wheat should be stable given the recent rainfall. More precipitation would be beneficial next week for the wheat, but this could be spotty.

Black Sea: The south and east could see more rainfall by Thursday and even into the weekend. Heavier and more consistent rain showers are needed to start making up some of the long-term deficits. Reproductive to filling wheat and developing corn will need more rain to get through the growing season, but the most consistent rain is still favoring western areas as a slow-moving system spins in western Russia through the weekend.

Australia: A slow-moving low pressure system spinning off the southeast coast of Australia will provide some showers to coastal areas throughout the week, but areas farther inland could be on the drier side, which would harm winter wheat and canola establishment. By early next week, a storm system tracking across southern Australia could lead to better chances for widespread showers in the southeast.

China:  Wheat harvest will begin across the North China Plain this week and drier conditions through the end of the week should lead to a good start in the harvest. Showers will become more widespread by the weekend, but the return of a drier pattern looks possible again by early next week. Developing corn and soybeans could use more rainfall, but showers will likely not be consistent enough into next week. Some of the heaviest rain will favor southeast China going into early next week.

 

The player sheet for 6/11 had funds: net sellers of 6,000 corn, sellers of 5,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and buyers of 500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 95,450 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from Brazil in an international tender.
• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased around 55,000 to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat to be sourced from optional origins in a private deal without issuing an international tender.
• NO PURCHASE IN CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL is believed to have made no major purchases in international tenders which closed on Monday for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, 120,000 tons of feed barley and 120,000 tons of soymeal.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending June 5.

• Corn est. range 700k – 1,400k tons, with avg of 992k
• Soybean est. range 150k – 600k tons, with avg of 333k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 2.9% to 23.734M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 24.49 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.12m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.08m

 

Trump Says Again He’ll Set Unilateral Tariffs in Two Weeks

President Donald Trump said he intended to send letters to trading partners in the next one to two weeks setting unilateral tariff rates, ahead of a July 9 deadline to reimpose higher duties on dozens of economies.

“We’re going to be sending letters out in about a week and a half, two weeks, to countries, telling them what the deal is,” Trump told reporters Wednesday at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington where he was attending a performance.

“At a certain point, we’re just going to send letters out. And I think you understand that, saying this is the deal, you can take it or leave it,” he added.

It’s unclear if Trump will follow through with his pledge. The president has often set two-week deadlines for actions, only for them to come later or not at all. The president on May 16 said he would be setting tariff rates for US trading partners “over the next two to three weeks.”

Trump in April announced higher tariffs on dozens of trading partners only to pause them for 90 days as markets swooned and investors feared the levies would spark a global downturn. Yet despite the ongoing negotiations, the only trade framework the US has reached is with the UK, along with a tariff truce with China.

But even the truce with China was threatened after Washington and Beijing accused each other of reneging on the terms, leading to marathon talks earlier this week in London on how to implement their agreement.

Trump earlier Wednesday said the trade framework with China had been completed and would have Beijing supply rare earths and magnets, with the US allowing Chinese students to study at American colleges and universities.

Asked Wednesday at the performance if he would extend the deadline for nations to cut deals with his administration before higher levies take effect, Trump said he would be open to it.

“But I don’t think we’re gonna have that necessity,” he added.

Trump had initially suggested he would engage in talks with each partner but has moved away from that idea, prioritizing talks with some key economic partners and acknowledging that the administration lacks the capacity to negotiate dozens of individual deals. Trump’s team is also working to secure bilateral deals with India, Japan, South Korea as well as the European Union.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said earlier Wednesday that the European Union is likely to be among the last deals that the US completed, expressing frustration with conducting talks with a 27-nation bloc.

 

Argentina exchange trims wheat harvest estimate

Argentina’s Rosario grains exchange slightly trimmed its wheat harvest estimate for the 2025/26 season on Wednesday, citing a smaller planting area than previously expected due to floods caused by recent heavy rains.

The exchange cut its outlook to 20.7 million metric tons for the crop, from 21 million tons.

 

Ukraine’s Grain Exports Drop 19% Y/y in Season Ending This Month

Ukraine’s grain exports have totaled 39.3m tons in the season that began on July 1, down 19% from the same period a year earlier, according to data on the Agriculture Ministry’s website.

• The total includes:
  • 15.2m tons of wheat, 15% lower y/y
  • 2.3m tons of barley, down 5% y/y
  • 21.2m tons of corn, down 23% y/y
• June’s exports total 884k tons so far, almost 40% below the same period last year
• Ukrainian farmers last week completed the spring sowing campaign, planting 5.6m hectares of spring grain and legumes, on par with a year earlier

 

Coceral Raises EU 2025 Soft Wheat and Barley Harvest Forecasts

The EU and the UK’s 2025 combined grain harvest is now seen at 300.7m tons, up from 296.1m tons forecast in March, industry group Coceral said Thursday in a report.

• Soft wheat forecasts were raised due to favorable weather conditions in southeastern Europe, Spain, and France
• Corn crop estimates were trimmed on downward revision in plantings and a bigger than expected switch to sunflowers
• Rapeseed crop is forecast to recover, mainly on normal planting patterns in Romania and Bulgaria and a recovery in yields in France and Germany

 

India’s May palm oil imports surge 84% m/m to hit six-month high

• Palm oil imports jump to 592,888 T, highest since Nov
• Soyoil imports rise 10.4% to 398,585 T, highest since Jan
• Sunflower oil imports rose 1.9% to 183,555 T

India’s palm oil imports jumped to a six-month high in May, driven by low inventories and the tropical oil’s price discount to rival soyoil and sunflower oil, which prompted refiners to boost purchases, an industry body said on Thursday.

Higher imports of palm and soyoil by India, the world’s biggest buyer of vegetable oils, could support Malaysian palm oil prices and U.S. soyoil futures.

Palm oil imports rose 84% in May from April to stand at 592,888 metric tons, the highest since November 2024, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) said.

India imported an average of more than 750,000 tons of palm oil each month during the marketing year that ended in October 2024, the SEA said.

Imports of soyoil increased 10.4% to 398,585 tons, the highest since January, and sunflower oil imports rose 1.9% to 183,555 tons, it added.

Higher imports of palm oil and soyoil lifted India’s total vegetable oil imports in May by 33% from a month before to 1.19 million tons, the highest since December, it said.

Below-average imports from January to April reduced domestic vegetable oil stocks to 1.33 million tons by June 1, the lowest since July 2020, according to SEA data.

Palm oil imports are likely to increase further in June and could rise to about 850,000 tons, as the oil is trading at a discount to soyoil, said Rajesh Patel, managing partner at GGN Research, an edible oil trader.

Soyoil imports in June will hold steady around 400,000 tons, Patel said.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

Vegetable oil imports are expected to pick up in the coming months as this month’s duty cut will help boost demand, said a New Delhi-based trader.

India halved the basic import tax on crude edible oils to 10% in a bid to reduce food prices and help the domestic refining industry.

 

India Asks Edible Oil Firms to Pass Duty Cut Benefit to Users

The food ministry has directed vegetable oil producers to immediately pass on the benefits of recent import duty reductions to consumers.

• “The timely transmission of this benefit to the supply chain is imperative to ensure that consumers experience a corresponding decrease in retail prices,” the ministry said in a statement
• NOTE: India halved its basic import duty on crude edible oils to 10% on May 31, while keeping the tax on refined forms unchanged
• The move to lower import levies on crude forms of sunflower, soy and palm oils has widened the duty differential between unprocessed and refined edible oils to 19.25% from 7.5%, according to the statement
  • The revised duty structure will discourage imports of refined palm olein and redirect demand toward crude edible oils, especially crude palm oil, it said
  • The measure will also strengthen the domestic refining sector

 

Lack of moisture across spring wheat belt slightly lowers U.S. wheat production

2025/26 U.S. WHEAT PRODUCTION: 53.4 [51.5–55.9] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Updated weather/satellite imagery, crop condition scores, and overall soil moisture status/short-term outlooks slightly (<1%) decrease 2025/26 U.S. total wheat production to 53.4 [51.5–55.9] million tons. In its May WASDE report (released on 12 May), the USDA pegged 2025/26 U.S. wheat production at 52.3 million tons, slightly below our current projection. Our current median estimate puts national-level winter wheat yield at 53.0 bushels per acre (bpa), 2.5% above last season and also above trend yield. This leads to total winter wheat production of 37.9 [36.8–39.5] million tons, virtually unchanged from previous update. Production of total spring wheat is estimated at 15.5 [14.7–16.4] million tons (with durum and other spring wheat at 2.0 and 13.5 million tons, respectively), down 1.1% from last update.

The past two weeks brought some widespread precipitation (between 60-130 mm in total, up to 80 mm above normal) to portions of the Central/Southern Plains, amid overall cool temperatures in the Plains and across the Upper Midwest. Winter wheat crops have continued to benefit from overall wet weather late May/early June, as the prime growing season comes to an end and maturing/harvest preparations begin to take place. USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (09 June) continues to indicate healthier than expected winter crop conditions, with now 54% of the crop in the good or excellent (GEX) category at the national level (vs. 47% last year). This is impressive considering all the potential winterkill events and soil moisture deficits that have highlighted the crop’s dormancy period during the winter. On the spring wheat front, most of the sowings have been completed ahead of schedule, with emergence reported at 82% nationally, on par with the 5-year average of 81%. The soil moisture levels in top producing regions such as North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana – which momentarily saw a great recovery thanks to abundant mid-May rains – have declined again and are now revisiting 5-year lows. Reflecting this, crop condition scores remain underwhelming, only 53% of the crop in the GEX category at the national level, compared to 72% the same time last year. Fortunately for farmers, rains are expected to return to most of the spring wheat belt later this week, which should help reduce potential yield risks.

 

 

 

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