More Rain in West Africa

COCOA

September Cocoa was near unchanged overnight following a two-day selloff. The weather in West Africa has been generally supportive for production in recent weeks, with regular patterns of rain. This is expected to boost output as the midcrop season advances after a poor start in the wake of an exceptionally dry winter. Ivory Coast mid-crop arrivals have been slow, leaving some to wonder when the pace will start to pick up. World Weather Service reports that parts of Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria received light to moderate this week with some locally heavy amounts.  A few locations in southern Cameroon also received light to moderate rain. More showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next week, which is considered beneficial for soil moisture.

COTTON

December Cotton extended yesterday’s selloff overnight and traded to its lowest level since April 15, as cotton traders were apparently disappointed that the trade agreement reached between China and the US produced no breakthrough for US cotton exports to China.  Last week’s export report showed net sales of 109,785 bales for the 2024/25 (current) marketing year and 38,984 for 2025/26 for a total of 148,769 for the week ending May 29. New Crop sales are starting out even slower than the current crop, with cumulative sales for 2025/26 the lowest in at least 12 years. For today’s supply/demand report, a Bloomberg survey has an average trade expectation for US 2025/26 cotton production at 14.63 million bales (range of 14.05-16.14 million), which would be up from 14.50 million in the May update. US exports are expected to come in around 12.58 million bales (range 12.25-13.50), up from 12.50 million in May. Ending stocks are expected to come in around 5.02 million bales (range 4.02-5.43), down from 5.2 million in May. World production is expected to come in at 117.71 million bales (range 117-119 million), up from 117.81 million in May. Consumption is expected around 117.78 million versus 118.08 million in May, and ending stocks are expected at 77.88 million (range 77-78.88 million), down from 78.38 million in May. World Weather Service reports that recent rains in West Texas have improved crop and field conditions for late season planting early season crop development. The Delta is still too wet and more rain is expected over the next ten days.

COFFEE

September Coffee was lower overnight and in the process closed a gap from June 5, which may provide some initial support today. NY (arabica) coffee has followed the London robusta contract lower as the Brazilian and Indonesian robusta harvests have advanced. NY coffee bounced off its oversold levels earlier this month but has been under pressure this week, and it may see more downside as the Brazilian arabica harvest moves along. World Weather Service says cooler temps are coming to Brazil’s major arabica producing region of Sul de Minas but no risk of crop-damaging cold. Cash prices in Vietnam were lower this week on sluggish trade, and there were reports of increasing stockpiles in Indonesia

SUGAR

With expectations for a recovery in Brazilian output for the second half of May and an improvement in cane crop prospects in Asia, July Sugar is back approaching last week’s two-year lows. UNICA announced this morning that it will release its report on Brazilian production for the second half of May on Monday after initially announcing that it would be released today. For the report, an S&P Global survey of analysts showed an average expectation calling for sugarcane crushing in to be +1.2% from the same period last year at 45.91 million tons and for sugar production to be +4.7% to 2.84 million tons. This would put cumulative production -13.% from a year ago, which would be a considerable improvement over the -23% as of the first half. The early arrival of the Indian monsoon has boosted expectations for the cane crop.

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