Global Ag News For June 9.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Missouri probes false report about screwworm pest that hurt US cattle prices

Missouri authorities are investigating a fake press release about the damaging livestock pest New World screwworm that sparked a selloff in U.S. cattle futures markets last week, the state’s agriculture department said on Friday.

U.S. agriculture officials and farmers are on high alert for screwworm as it has moved north in Mexico from Central America, arriving within about 700 miles (1,125 km) of the Texas border.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture indefinitely halted U.S. cattle imports from Mexico last month in a bid to keep out the parasite, which eats livestock and other wild animals alive. Screwworm infestations can kill cattle if left untreated and make them susceptible to secondary infections.

On May 27, a false press release was sent to a northwest Missouri radio station about screwworm, the Missouri Department of Agriculture said.

A report on the radio station’s website pressured Chicago Mercantile Exchange cattle futures before being taken offline, livestock traders said. Live cattle futures fell nearly 2% before paring losses, as daily trading volumes in the market spiked 77% from a week earlier.

The Missouri State Highway Patrol’s Rural Crimes Investigative Unit, the Livestock and Farm Protection Task Force, and state attorney general are investigating the matter, Missouri’s agriculture department said in a press release.

State officials want to determine “if this was an act with malicious intent to cause panic in agricultural markets,” the department added.

U.S. cattle producers’ group R-CALF USA last week asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates futures markets, to investigate.

The commission did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and exchange operator CME Group declined to comment.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/2 in SRW, down 1 3/4 in HRW, down 2 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans down 1/4; Soymeal down $0.40; Soyoil up 0.01.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 14 1/4 in SRW, up 7 3/4 in HRW, up 5 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 3; Soybeans up 23 1/2; Soymeal up $1.40; Soyoil up 1.23.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 19 1/4 in SRW, up 14 1/4 in HRW, up 7 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans up 15 1/4; Soymeal down $1.00; Soyoil up 0.62.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 0.3% in SRW, down 2.1% in HRW, up 6.2% in HRS; Corn is down 3.8%; Soybeans up 5.9%; Soymeal down 4.0%; Soyoil up 19.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans down 1 yuan; Soymeal up 20; Soyoil up 48; Palm oil up 30; Corn up 15 — Malaysian Palm is up 8.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 8 ringgit (+0.20%) at 3925.

There were changes in registrations (-97 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 6 were: SRW Wheat down 9,316 contracts, HRW Wheat up 763, Corn down 12,894, Soybeans down 5,241, Soymeal down 3,214, Soyoil down 11,434.

 

NORTH AMERICA WEATHER UPDATE 06 JUNE 2025

What to Watch:

• Low soil moisture levels in the Canadian Prairies and Western U.S. Corn Belt
• Significant improvement experienced in the U.S. spring wheat regions
• Insufficient rains expected in key crop areas in mid-June
• Flood risks in the wheat areas of Kansas and Oklahoma

 

Northern Plains:   Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal west and below normal east Monday, near to above normal Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central/Southern Plains:  Isolated to scattered showers south Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

Midwest: West: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday. East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday-Sunday.

 

The player sheet for 6/6 had funds: net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,000 corn, buyers of 3,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 5,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• EU REIMPOSES DUTIES ON UKRAINE AG PRODUCTS: The European Union reimposed duties and quotas on Ukrainian agricultural products from Friday, and hopes to clinch a deal on new quotas that will be smaller than imports during the last three years after Russia’s invasion, the EU’s agriculture commissioner told Reuters.
• LOCAL WHEAT PURCHASE: Iraq has procured 3.4 million tons of local wheat so far in the current harvest season, state news agency INA reported, citing the ministry of commerce.

 

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 metric tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB is holding a new international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins for shipment during July 1-15.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

China May Imports: Customs

General Administration of Customs says on website.

• Soybean Imports 13.918m Tons
  • Soybean imports YTD fell 0.7% y/y to 37.108m tons
• Edible vegetable oil imports in May 462,000 tons
  • Edible vegetable oil imports YTD fell 12.9% y/y to 2.491m tons
• Meat (including offal) imports in May 513,000 tons
  • Meat (including offal) imports YTD fell 3.9% y/y to 2.671m tons
• Fertilizer exports in May 3.144m tons
  • Fertilizer exports YTD rose 33.1% y/y to 12.838m tons

 

China Soy Imports at Record as US Spat Spurs More Brazil Flows

China’s soybean imports climbed to an all-time high last month as the world’s biggest buyer scooped up large volumes mainly from Brazil amid concerns that its trade war with the US could boost global prices.

Soybean purchases by the Asian nation more than doubled from a month earlier to 13.92 million tons in May, China’s customs data showed. Imports rose 73% in April.

Chinese crushers rushed to secure cheap South American beans — booking at least 40 cargoes from Brazil in a week in early April — on worries that the trade spat could complicate purchases of US crops.

While Beijing has been diversifying its agricultural purchases — including buying more from Brazil, which is now its biggest soy supplier — the crop is still America’s top agricultural export to China.

There has been some progress in trade talks between the world’s two biggest economies. The US and China are set to resume negotiations in London on Monday.

Beijing has lowered its tariffs on all US products after the two countries brokered a trade truce in Geneva in May, but extra duties imposed earlier on a raft of American farm goods, including soybeans, remain in place.

A top official from China’s state planner said in April that grain supply in the country won’t be affected by a loss of US feed grain and oilseed imports, thanks to abundantly available substitutes on the global market and sufficient reserves at home.

 

Brazil 2024/25 Soy Sales 64% Done as of June 6: Safras

Compares with 71.8% a year before and with 5-year average of 76.9%, consulting firm Safras & Mercado says in emailed report.

• Soy sales were at 57% in May 9 report
  • 2024/25 soy harvest is seen at 172.45m tons
• 2025/26 soy sales are 10.8% done, compared with 14.6% a year ago and 5-year average of 20.6%
  • Sales were at 7.9% in May 9 report
  • 2025/26 soy harvest is seen at 182.57m tons

 

CORN/CEPEA: High production in Brazil keeps prices down

Corn prices continue to move down in Brazil, a trend that has been verified since mid-April.

Price drops are explained by the fact that purchasers are away from closing trades, expecting more decreases, due to the supply increase (especially because of the beginning of the second crop harvesting). Conab estimates that the production may total 99.8 million tons, 11% more than in the season before (23/24). Moreover, recent decreases of the US dollar and of international prices reduce the export parity and reinforce drops in Brazil.

It is worth noting that corn values registered stability at the beginning of this week, when the rainfall in the South and in the Southeast reduced the pace of the harvesting, leading producers to trade more carefully, limiting the supply.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) downed 0.3% between May 29 and June 5, closing at BRL 68.96 per 60-kilo bag on June 5. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, from May 29 to June 5, corn values dropped 2.6% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 1.7% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: High demand from abroad sustains premium and prices in Brazil

The firm demand, especially from abroad, has interrupted the downward trend for export premiums for soy and byproducts. This scenario, in turn, sustained domestic prices. Liquidity in the spot market, however, continues low – players have their eyes on the possible agreement between China and the United States.

In May, Brazil shipped 14.09 million tons, 4.9% more than one year ago, but 7.7% below that in April/25, according to data from Secex. In the partial of this year (up to May), exports hit the record of 51.52 million tons, 2.7% above that verified in the same period last year.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) upped 0.8% from May 29 to June 5, closing at BRL 134.04 per 60-kg bag on June 5. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) decreased 0.2% between May 29 and June 5, to close at BRL 127.97 per 60-kg bag.

On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices rose 0.2% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) in the same comparison.

 

APK-Inform consultancy cuts Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest forecast by 4.3% to 52.9 million tons

Agricultural consultancy APK-Inform on Saturday cut its 2025 grain harvest forecast for Ukraine by 4.3% to 52.9 million metric tons, mostly due to lower than expected corn and wheat output.

The consultancy said Ukraine’s corn harvest could be 7.8% lower than it expected a month ago and could total 24.9 million tons.

It said in a report that Ukraine’s wheat harvest could total 21.7 million tons versus 21.8 million expected a month ago.

APK-Inform also revised down its export forecast for key commodities corn, wheat and barley for the 2025/26 season (July-June), saying it now expected combined exports of 38.5 million tons, down 5.9% from its previous estimate.

Ukraine’s agriculture minister told Reuters this week that the grain harvest might fall 10% to around 51 million tons, while the first deputy minister saw grain exports at 35 to 40 million tons in 2025/26.

 

Harvesting campaign in Crimea for 2025 begins, Russia says

The harvesting campaign has kicked off in Crimea ahead of schedule, a local government official said on Friday, and the aim is to collect 1.1 million metric tons of grain, including 900,000 tons of wheat.

The latest forecast for Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014, is below last year’s harvest of 1.5 million tons. Crimea was hit by frosts in spring, but the state RIA news agency quoted Denis Kratsyk, the local agriculture minister, as saying in May that the crops were in a satisfactory condition.

Crimea, as well as four other regions that Russia largely controls after over three years of war in Ukraine, makes a substantial contribution to the overall grain harvest in Russia, the world’s biggest wheat exporter.

Ukraine says it still hopes to return its lands through a mixture of diplomacy and force, something Russia has ruled out.

Rosstat, Russia’s state statistics agency, included the Crimea harvest in its nationwide figure of 125.9 million tons for 2024. But it did not include the harvest from the other regions which Russia largely controls in southern and eastern Ukraine – which Moscow calls the “new territories” – and which is estimated at about 4 million tons.

Russia’s agriculture ministry said that this year’s harvest would be better than last year. Analysts’ estimates vary from 127.6 million tons from consultancy Sovecon up to 138 million tons by rail carrier Rusagrotrans.

Russia is however set to export about 20% less wheat in this marketing season, that ends this month, and government officials said it would need to work hard to maintain its status as the world’s top wheat exporter in future.

 

Corn Output Seen Climbing to Record in 2025-26: FAO-AMIS

Corn production is set to rebound by 3.8% to a record 1.26 billion tons in the 2025-26 season, according to the AMIS Market Monitor.

• That compares with 1.21 billion tons a season earlier
• Expects the largest increases in the US, with “notable” rise in Brazil, China, the EU, South Africa and Ukraine

 

Indonesia Says EU to Give Special Treatment on Deforestation Law

Indonesia will get special treatment regarding the EU’s new deforestation rules, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said, citing talks with EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic over a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA).

• Hartarto, speaking to reporters on Saturday, did not elaborate on details of Indonesia’s treatment
• Around 80% of Indonesian exports to the EU will get a 0% import duty after the CEPA takes effect in 1-2 years, he said, citing Friday’s talks in Brussels
• EU will give Indonesia “a level playing field” with other Southeast Asian countries for exported fishery products
• During the CEPA negotiations, Indonesia focused on renewable energy, electric vehicle ecosystems, footwear, palm oil and fisheries, while the EU focused on local content regulations, automotives, critical minerals and investment facilities, he said

 

Brazil Rules Out Another Bird Flu Case in Commercial Farm

An updated version of the Brazilian Agriculture Ministry’s webpage on investigated bird respiratory diseases no longer shows an ongoing investigation in Westfalia city, Rio Grande do Sul state.

 

China Approves Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal Imports From Uruguay

China approves soybean meal and rapeseed meal from Uruguay starting Friday, according to a statement from Chinese customs.

 

U.S. Gulf Urea Nitrogen Fertilizer Price Drops 6.24%

Nitrogen fertilizer, represented by U.S. granular urea sold at NOLA, fell 6.24% to $368 per short ton in the week ended June 6, according to Green Markets data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

• U.S. Gulf NOLA urea dropped 23.9% during the last month and was down 6.6% during the last 3 months
• Major Urea nitrogen benchmark prices were mixed
• All major Ammonia nitrogen benchmark prices fell while Tampa Ammonia fell the most during the last week
• Major UAN nitrogen benchmark prices were mixed
• Natural gas, which drives producer costs, has increased 7.9% during the last week and was down 2.5% during the last month

 

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.