MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. North America weather forecast is crop favorable. Stocks are higher on hopes some positive news from US and China trade talks. OEPC will increase Crude oil production July 1. Most doubt any US/China trade deal soon. USDA US and World supply and demand report June 12.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.58. There remains uncertainty over EPA biofuel policy. Trade est US 2024/25 soybean carryout to 351 mil bu and 2025/6 at 298. Trade est Brazil soybean crop at 169.3 mmt and Argentina at 49.0 mmt. Trade est World 2025/26 soybean end stocks at 124.5 mmt vs 124.3 in May. Trade also looks for US weekly soybean crop rating to increase 1-2 pct.
CORN
CN is near 4.42. Trade est US 2024/25 corn carryout to 1,392 mil bu and 2025/26 at 1,792. Trade est Brazil corn crop at 131.7 mmt and Argentina at 49.9 mmt. Trade est World 2025/26 corn end stocks at 278.8 mmt vs 277.8 in May. Trade fears that in 2025 World corn supply could increase 37-40 mmt If true, US 2025 corn yield would have to drop below 174 to rally prices. Trade also looks for US weekly corn crop rating to increase 1-2 pct.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.53. KWN is near 5.47. MWN is near 6.32. It is dry in China, Canada and east EU. There is hope for showers in these dry areas. Trade est US wheat crop at 1,924 mil bu vs 1,921 in May. Winter wheat 1,388 mil bu vs 1,382 in May. Trade est US 2024/25 wheat carryout to 842 mil bu and 2025/26 at 924. Trade est World 2025/26 wheat end stocks at 265.5 mmt vs 265.7 in May. Russia retaliated with bombing Kiev but not Odessa grain ports.
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