Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
CORN
Prices ranged from $.04 higher in spot July, to steady in new crop futures. July/Dec spread gained only $.02 after trading as much as $.05 ½ at midsession. The Goldman roll likely weighing on spreads in late trade. US weather is mostly favorable however too much rain across the southern Midwest and Delta region over the next week may prove troublesome for the late developing winter wheat. US non-farm payrolls grew 139k last month, just above expectations for +125k. April payrolls were revised down 38k to +147k. As expected the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. The BAGE places Argentine harvest at 44% vs. 35% YA while leaving their production forecast unchanged at 49 mmt. Earlier this week California’s General Assembly passed legislation to allow the sale of E-15 gasoline in the state. California is the only state that currently doesn’t allow the sale of E-15. If it passes the state Senate (need 66% yes) Gov. Newson is expected to sign the bill allowing E-15 sales to begin Jan. 1st 2026.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mostly higher today. Beans were up $.04-$.05 ½ led by spot July, meal was steady to down $1.50 while oil was up 75-85 points. Soybean oil gathered strength on unconfirmed rumors the Trump Admin. is close to reaching a decision on RVO’s with an announcement from the EPA by mid-June. Bean and oil spreads firmed while meal spreads weakened. July-25 beans closed into new highs for the week sitting near the midpoint of its 2 month range. July-25 meal remains range bound between $290-$300 per ton. July-25 oil also closed into new highs for the week with next resistance at 48.20. Spot board crush margins were little changed today at $1.16 bu. with bean oil PV recovering to 44.5%, however new crop margins recovered $.05 to $1.74 ½ bu. US Temperatures to remain in a cooler than normal pattern before heat begins to emerge across the West by late next week. A little bit of warmth is exactly what this crop needs in many areas, however markets will be on guard for any indication of a hot/dry pattern setting up for mid-summer. Mostly dry for Argentina and WC Brazil over the next week, beneficial for harvest. The BAGE places Argentine harvest at 89%, up 8% from LW and just below the 92% from YA which is also the 5-year Ave. Safras & Mercado est. Brazilian farmers have sold 64% of their 24/25 crop, below the 72% from YA. They also est. farmers have forward sold only 11% of the 25/26 crop, below the 15% from YA. The Brazilian real has recently traded to an 8 month high, likely keeping the sales pace in check.
WHEAT
Prices jumped late closing into fresh session highs. Prices ranged from $.07 higher in KC to $.10 higher in CGO and MGEX. Spreads firmed in CGO and MGEX while mixed in KC. Higher trade in wheat likely driven by heavy rains across S. Midwest and Russia’s overnight retaliatorily missile assault on Ukraine. July-25 CGO stopped just shy of resistance at the May high at $5.56 ¼. KC July closed above its 50 day MA for the first time in 3 months however was not able to pierce the May high at $5.50 ½. July-25 MGEX closed at a 3 ½ month high. Argentine plantings advanced 13% LW to 24% complete. Next Thursday’s USDA report will also update WW production. The USDA has raised production every year in the June report in the past 10.
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