Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.05 higher today with new crop futures leading the way. Spreads continue to ease ahead of the Goldman roll that begins next Monday. July traded $.10 under Dec for the first time since last July. Dec-25 pretty much closed at its 50 day MA. Next resistance is the 100 day MA at $4.54 1/2. US weather remains mostly favorable. 24 hour rainfall maps show good coverage across IL and IN yesterday. Rains over the next 5 days to favor the deep south with lighter coverage across the NC Midwest. Exports at 43 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments at 2.564 bil. are up 27% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 13%. April census exports at 307 mil. bu. were the highest in 4 years for the month and nearly 16 mil. above the weekly inspections data. Exports thru April at 1.803 bil. are up 26% YOY. Exports over the last 4 months of the 24/25 MY will need to reach 797 mil. bu. in order to hit the current USDA forecast of 2.60 bil. bu. vs. 861 mil. YA and the 5-year Ave. of 792 mil. The BAGE reports Argentine harvest advanced 3% LW to 44% vs. 35% YA. The kept their production forecast at 49 mmt, just below the USDA est. of 50 mmt.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mostly higher with beans up $.07-$.08, meal was steady to $1 higher, while oil was mixed, down in old crop contracts up in new crop. Bean spreads were mixed while product spreads weakened. July-25 beans traded to the highest level in a week and closed just above its 100 day MA. July-25 meal is still range bound between $290-$300 per ton and still hovering near its 50 day MA. July-25 oil is consolidating near the midpoint of this week’s range and its 100 day MA at 46.65. Spot board crush margins plunged $.08 ½ today to a 3 month low at $1.15 bu. while bean oil PV slipped to 44%. Traders are trying to access what’s next now that Pres. Trump and Chinese leader Xi spoke this AM. During their 90 min. phone conversation they touched on a number of trade topics including rare earth materials, AI chip technology and Chinese students ability to study in the US. Trump described their conversation as a “very good phone call” which resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries. High level follow up negotiations are expected to be announced soon. Weekly exports at 7 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations. Old crop commitments at 1.788 bil. are up 12% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. No more outstanding sales to China while 58 mil. to unknown. Soybean meal sales at 265k tons were at the low end of expectations. YTD commitments are up 12% from YA, vs. USDA up 8%. Soybean oil sales at 10k mt (23 mil. lbs.) were in line with expectations. YTD commitments at 2.310 bil. lbs. represent 96% of the USDA forecast of 2.40 bil. lbs. April-25 census exports at 80 mil. bu. were in line with weekly inspections data. Exports thru April at 1.624 bil. are up 10% YOY. Exports over the last 4 months of the 24/25 MY will need to reach 226 mil. bu. to hit the current USDA forecast, vs. 219 mil. YA and the 5-year Ave. of 261 mil. The BAGE reports Argentine harvest advanced 4% LW to 89% while maintain their production forecast at 50 mmt, just above the USDA est. of 49 mmt.
WHEAT
Prices were mixed and very little changed despite the choppy 2 sided trade across the 3 classes. CGO and KC were $.01-$.03 higher while MGEX was mixed. July-25 CGO again stalled out just below this week’s high at $5.49 ½. July-25 KC stalled just below its 50 day MA at $5.47 ¾. Prices seem to want to retest their recent highs as speculative traders lighten up from their recent record short positions. Too much rain across S. US wheat areas with harvest looming combined with drought conditions across EC growing areas of China providing the fundamental support. Exports at 14 mil. bu. (-2 mil. – 24/25, 16 – 25/26 MY) were at the low end of expectations. Old crop commitments slipped to 782 mil. bu. still up 14% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 16%. New crop commitments have reached 196 mil. bu. the highest in over a decade. April-25 census exports at 81 mil. bu. were in line with weekly inspections data. With 1 month of data left for the 24/25 MY, exports sit at 738 mil. bu. needing 82 mil. in May to reach the current USDA export forecast of 820 mil. The BAGE reports Argentine wheat plantings have reached 24%, below the historical average of 32%.
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