Optimism on Trump-Xi Talks?

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed. North America weather forecast is crop favorable. China wheat areas are dry. West Canada is dry but rains are forecast for week 2. Ukraine and S Russia are dry. Crude is higher. Stocks and gold are higher. There some new optimism on Trump and Xi will talk soon about US/China relations and trade. There is also new hope for EPA biofuel policy. China researcher is due to court today for bail after trying to smuggle in toxic fungus, US hiring slowed especially in business services, education and health.

SOYBEANS 

SN is near 10.42. Dalian soybeans, palmoil, soyoil and soymeal were lower. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated at 100-500 mt vs 146 last week. Large SA soybean crops could slow US sales. One group dropped US 2024/25 soybean crush 20 mil vu which raised carryout to 374. They increased 2025/26 crush 60 mil bu vs USDA but dropped exports 215 mil bu. This leaves a carryout at 500 mil bu vs USDA 295. SX could test 9.70 if weather is US Midwest weather is normal.

CORN 

CN is near 4.41. CZ is near 4.46. Dalian corn futures were higher. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated at 775-1,400 mt vs 916 last week. Weekly ethanol production was up 4.8 pct from last week and higher than expected. US gas use for the week ending May 30 was down 8 pct vs ly. WTI crude prices tend to peak the second half of June. US weather is favorable with rains and warmer temps. Since 1980, there has been 19 years in which June rains were atleast 5 pct above average. 13 of those years, final US corn yield exceeded trend. Some feel parts of NE and IA need more rain. Some feel US 2025/26 exports are 275 mil bu below USDA which increase carryout closer to 2,020.

WHEAT  

WN is near 5.47. KWN is near 5.42. MWN is near 6.23. Wheat futures up on dryness in China, Canada and east EU. Matif firm waiting for delayed farmer selling with funds record short 300,000 contracts or 15 mm,. Russian attention is shifting to 25/26 sales, with a widening export margin and declining export taxes. Australia futures lower due to lower export demand. Weekly US wheat exports sales are est at 200-600 mt vs 711 last week.

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