Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. North America weather forecast is crop favorable. Rains are falling across N EU. China wheat areas mostly dry. West Canada is dry. Ukraine and S Russia are dry. NOAA 30 day calls for normal to above rains and temps for US Midwest. Crude is higher due to increase tension between Ukraine and Russia. Stocks and gold are lower. White House suggest Trump and XI could talk soon about US/China relations and trade. OECD lowered est of World economy to +2.9 from +3.1, US +1.5 from +1.6, Eurozone +1.0, China +4.7 from +4.8 and Russia +1.0 from +4.3, Brazil +2.1 from +3.4 and Argentina +5.2 from -1.7.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.37. Dalian soybeans, palmoi and soyoil were higher, soymeal lower. USDA est 84 pct of US crop is planted and crop rated 67 pct G/E. IA 81, IL 59, OH 50, AR 61. US soybean exports are up 11 pct vs ly and USDA up 9. US April crush is est at 201.8 mil bu vs 177.6 ly. One group dropped US 2024/25 soybean crush 20 mil vu which raised carryout to 374. They increased 2025/26 crush 60 mil bu vs USDA but dropped exports 215 mil bu. This leaves a carryout at 500 mil bu vs USDA 295.
CORN
CN is near 4.36. CU is near 4.21. CZ is near 4.36. USDA est corn plantings at 93 pct. Crop was rated 69 pct G/E vs 75 ly. IA 74, IL 63, OH 46. US corn exports are up 29 pct vs ly and USDA up 13. Some feel US 2025/26 exports are 275 mil bu below USDA which increase carryout closer to 2,020. Brazil 2nd corn crop est range from 108-118 mmt. Conab 99.8. This suggest total crop 130-140 mmt vs USDA 130 and Conab 127. Rain is forecast for US Midwest including wet south and Ohio valley. .
WHEAT
WN is near 5.33. WN support is 5.25. KWN is near 5.31. USDA est US WW harvest at 3 pct and crop 52 pct G/E and above trade guess. MWN is near 6.19. USDA est US SW crop 50 pct G/E and above trade guess. Matif closed for a modest gain due to a drier and warmer Black Sea weather pattern. After a slow end to 24/25, Russian attention is shifting to 25/26 sales, with a widening export margin and declining export taxes suggesting Russian July shipments could rebound to 4 mmt vs 2 mmt in June. Australia est their wheat crop at 30.6 mmt and down 10 pct vs ly, exports 22 mmt vs USDA 25.
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