Global Ag News For May 29.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Trump Global Tariffs Deemed Illegal, Blocked by Trade Court

The bulk of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs were deemed illegal and blocked by the US trade court, dealing a major blow to a pillar of his economic agenda.

A panel of three judges at the US Court of International Trade in Manhattan issued a ruling Wednesday siding with Democratic-led states and a group of small businesses that argued Trump had wrongfully invoked an emergency law to justify some of his levies.

The Trump administration filed a notice that it was appealing the ruling. The US Supreme Court may ultimately have the final say in the high-stakes case that could impact trillions of dollars in global trade.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 3/4 in SRW, down 1/2 in HRW, up 1 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/2; Soybeans up 1 3/4; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil up 0.10.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 14 in SRW, down 14 in HRW, down 2 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 12; Soybeans down 10; Soymeal down $2.40; Soyoil down 0.32.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 2 1/4 in SRW, down 4 3/4 in HRW, up 7 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 28; Soybeans up 5 3/4; Soymeal down $4.30; Soyoil up 0.06.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 4.2% in SRW, down 6.2% in HRW, up 1.4% in HRS; Corn is down 2.4%; Soybeans up 5.2%; Soymeal down 4.5%; Soyoil up 23.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans down 20 yuan; Soymeal down 10; Soyoil down 30; Palm oil up 60; Corn up 6 — Malaysian Palm is up 34.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 34 ringgit (+0.87%) at 3933.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 598 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 28 were: SRW Wheat up 102 contracts, HRW Wheat down 525, Corn up 7,998, Soybeans up 7,794, Soymeal up 3,812, Soyoil up 3,520.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 28 MAY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Dry conditions will prevail across the U.S. Midwest and northern Plains during the next 5 days, though wetter weather is expected in these regions during the 6-10 day period
• SOUTH AMERICA: Cool conditions will prevail in Southern Brazil during the next 5 days, before widespread warmth returns to the majority of the country thereafter
• AUSTRALIA: Southwestern Australia and coastal regions of the northeast will receive heavy precipitation over the next 5 days, while most crop regions of the south/southeast remain dry
• AFRICA: Warm and dry weather will prevail across South Africa during the next 10+ days

 

Northern Plains: Recent precipitation has been beneficial for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought throughout most of the region. Some showers will remain possible on Wednesday, but much of the week should be drier and beneficial for additional fieldwork. Some isolated showers may develop over the weekend as well. A bigger system should move through the region Monday night and Tuesday, bringing widespread showers through the rest of the week. Temperatures will be on the rise this week, but fall behind next week’s system.

Central/Southern Plains: Recent heavy rainfall was beneficial for some dry areas, but also brought heavy rain to some areas that didn’t necessarily need it across eastern Oklahoma and Texas. This system continues to produce showers through Thursday before the region goes on a drier trend. Systems will favor the Northern Plains next week, leaving the region with spotty showers and higher temperatures. Some stretch of drier weather can be dealt with because of the recent rain. But this may be the start of a drier trend that is forecast to increase throughout the month of June.

Midwest: A system will continue to pinwheel through the region this week with areas of isolated to scattered showers through Friday and some more may drop over western areas this weekend with another disturbance. Soil moisture is certainly higher in most areas, which is good news for many that have already planted. But there are some areas, particularly across the south, that haven’t had very good conditions for planting yet and it is starting to get very late. Showers this week will be more of a nuisance and are not expected to be heavy for too many areas. Cooler temperatures remain in place for most of the week, but should be rising starting on Friday and continuing into the weekend and early June. Heavier rain will be possible next week as at least a pair of systems moves through. Models disagree about the coverage of precipitation in the region, though.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Scattered showers continue in the region through Friday and could have potential for severe weather as well. There have only been limited dry days across the region all spring, which has built in a lot of soil moisture, but also caused ponding and flooding for extended periods as well. Temperatures are mostly below normal this week, which may also lead to disease pressure in areas that cannot dry out. Temperatures should rise next week.

Canadian Prairies: Drier weather this week should allow for most producers to finish planting either on schedule or ahead of it after some really good rain previously. A disturbance may bring showers Thursday night and Friday and the pattern is setting up to favor additional moderate or even heavy rain starting on Sunday. That would be highly favorable after the good planting pace.

Brazil: A front produced heavy rain over the south on Tuesday, with showers waning as the front gets into central Brazil on Wednesday for southern safrinha corn areas that may still be filling. Safrinha corn harvest has started, though at a slow pace. That pace will pick up in about two weeks. Colder air will move in behind the front and could produce some patchy frosts as far north as Parana over the next couple of mornings. If that occurs, that could affect safrinha corn in some areas.

Argentina: Winter wheat planting should be increasing going through June. Cold air is moving in and could produce frosts in some areas over the next few mornings. Early frosts are not a significant concern for the remaining corn and soybean harvest, or early winter wheat establishment.

Europe: Scattered showers continue to move over northern areas this week, but amounts have not and continue not to be particularly heavy for very many areas which needed it. The driest areas in France, the UK, and Germany may be the target for additional heavy rainfall next week, though. That would be preferred as many of these areas have fallen behind significantly in precipitation deficits over the last few months.

 

The player sheet for 5/28 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 15,000 corn, sellers of 6,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and sellers of 4,500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from Brazil in an international tender.
• BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased about 50,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender seeking up to 120,000 tons.

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins.
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued a new international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending May 23 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.05m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 24.587m bbl vs 24.944m a week ago

 

Cold, dry weather to boost delayed soybean harvest in Argentina

Dry and cold weather conditions expected in the coming days will help dry out Argentina’s agricultural fields, allowing producers to intensify their delayed soybean harvest following repeated rains, the Buenos Aires and Rosario stock exchanges said on Wednesday.

Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal, but heavy rainfall in key farming regions has stalled the oilseed harvest, raising concerns about potential yield losses. The government estimates the 2024/25 soybean crop at 49 million metric tons.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BdeC) said there will be an influx of cold air that will lower temperatures, with possible frost in some production areas.

“These are expected cold conditions that could help further dry out the crop and improve conditions for the soybean harvest,” Cristian Russo, head of agricultural estimates at the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), told Reuters.

“After the rains, they could be a positive factor in recovering those fields and harvesting them,” he added.

According to the BdeC’s latest harvest progress report, soybean harvesting in parts of northern Buenos Aires province was between 9 and 20 percentage points behind last year’s pace. As of last week, 74.3% of the national soybean crop had been harvested.

“Most of Argentina’s agricultural area will receive little to no rainfall (less than 10 millimeters),” the BdeC said in its weekly agroclimatic report.

 

EU Trims Total Grain Production Forecast for 2025-26 Season

The EU’s total grain production is now estimated at 279.6m tons in the 2025-26 season that begins July, slightly below a previous forecast of 280.3m tons, the European Commission said in its latest outlook for the upcoming season.

• Soft wheat output estimates were raised to 126.6m tons from 126.3m tons
• Barley was also raised to 52.3m tons from 51.7m tons
• Corn was cut to 63.8m tons from 65m tons

 

Ukraine producers see new harvest wheat prices rising

Ukrainian milling wheat prices may rise to $240 per ton Carriage Paid To (CPT) by September from the current $228 and reach $260 after January 2026 due to a smaller global harvest and weather risks, Ukraine’s producers’ union UAC said on Wednesday.

The union says the long-term outlook is positive for Ukrainian farmers, who account for more than 50% of Ukraine’s export earnings.

“Against the backdrop of declining supply on the global market and growing weather risks in major producing countries, particularly in Russia and U.S., the new Ukrainian harvest has every chance of being competitive,” UAC said in a report.

Ukrainian officials did not announce forecasts for the 2025 wheat crop, but analysts at APK-Inform earlier this month increased their wheat crop outlook by 1.5% to 21.8 million tons.

However, this would be 3% below the 2024 crop of 22.4 million tons.

The first deputy agriculture minister told Reuters in mid-May that the ministry was keeping its 2025 grain harvest forecast at 56 million metric tons despite unfavourable weather in April and early May.

Ukraine harvested 56.2 million tons of grain in 2024.

State weather forecasters said this month that weather conditions in early May were mostly satisfactory for grain fields, but frost and drought in southern regions have damaged or killed some winter wheat, peas, rapeseed and barley crops.

 

Canada wheat production down on lack of moisture across southern Prairies

2025/26 CANADA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 35.3 [33.9–36.8] MILLION TONS, DOWN 3% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Canada wheat production is lowered by 3% to 35.3 [33.9–36.8] million tons, as soil moisture conditions continue to deteriorate across core crop areas of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, despite beneficial rains during early May. Our current estimate puts planted area at 11.2 million hectares, up 3.4% from last season, which is slightly (<1%) above the StatCan’s 11.1 million hectares. The USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) placed its latest estimate of Canada wheat production at 36 million tons on 12 May. The latest local province-level sowing progress reports indicate that Saskatchewan’s planting is 72% complete so far, well ahead of the 5-year average of 60% and the 10-year average of 64%. The current soil moisture levels are hovering around at least 6-year lows in the top producers Saskatchewan and Manitoba, warranting attention, though Alberta’s conditions are relatively healthy, providing some relief. LSEG Weather Research team’s June-August forecast has already placed warmer and drier than normal conditions across key wheat production areas of western Canada during the crop’s prime growth period, which should be noted.

 

U.S. wheat production up amid favorable May weather

2025/26 U.S. WHEAT PRODUCTION: 53.6 [51.4–56.0] MILLION TONS, UP 2% FROM LAST UPDATE

Updated weather/satellite imagery, winter wheat condition scores and spring wheat sowing progress increase 2025/26 U.S. total wheat production by 2% to 53.6 [51.4–56.0] million tons. In its May WASDE report (released on 12 May), the USDA pegged 2025/26 U.S. wheat production at 52.3 million tons, slightly below our current outlook. Our current median estimate puts national-level winter wheat yield at 53.0 bushels per acre (bpa), 2.5% above last season and also above trend yield. This leads to total winter wheat production of 37.9 [36.5–39.4] million tons, up 2.9% compared to previous update. Production of total spring wheat is estimated at 15.7 [14.9–16.6] million tons (with durum and other spring wheat at 2.0 and 13.7 million tons, respectively), up 1.5% from last update.

Cool and wet weather continued across the spring wheat belt over the past two weeks, greatly improving soil moisture conditions while not much hindering the ongoing planting efforts. The Dakotas in particular, where more than 60% of the country’s total spring wheat is grown, received long-awaited above normal rains up to 120 mm in total, providing an instant soil moisture relief to the dry soils which had been suffering from at least 6-year lows since the beginning of the year. The recent heavy precipitation events have come with some momentary/localized water logging issues, but the benefits should outweigh the risk as the crop’s prime growth period is approaching fast around the corner. USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (27 May) continues to indicate a steady spring wheat sowing pace and healthy crop emergence, with 87% complete nationally (in line with last year’s 87% and well ahead of the 5-year average of 80%) and 60% emerged so far (ahead of last year’s 58% and the 5-year average of 53%), respectively. On the winter wheat front, crop conditions remain positive, with 50% of the crop in the good or excellent (GEX) category at the national level, on par with last year’s 48% albeit a slight decline compared to last week’s 52%. This is impressive considering all the potential winterkill events and soil moisture deficits that have highlighted the crop’s dormancy period during the winter. Overall favorable wet weather across the Plains during the second half of May will likely continue its trend of modesty into early June, which should further increase yield potential as the crop moves through its heading stage in full swing.

 

Late season wet weather lowers Argentina corn production but drier days are ahead

2024/25 ARGENTINA CORN PRODUCTION: 49.0 [47.8–50.2] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2024/25 Argentina corn production is slightly (<1%) lowered to 49.0 [47.8–50.2] million tons, reflecting unfavorable harvest conditions across eastern Pampas during early and mid-May, though drier days are ahead, limiting potential crop damage and quality concerns. In May’s WASDE report (released on 12 May), USDA placed Argentina corn production at 50 million tons, unchanged from its previous projection in April. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently forecast production at 49 and 48.5 million tons, respectively. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of 22 May, corn harvest was 41% complete nationally, slightly ahead of last year’s 37%. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires also reported progress of 38.8%, relatively decent considering recent unfavorable wet weather. The eastern half of the main Pampas region – most notably northern Buenos Aires, southern Santa Fe, and Chaco – received a series of very heavy rains over the past 30 days, totaling near 170 mm, up to 90 mm above normal. Some torrential downpours took place in the northeastern parts of Buenos Aires such as Pergamino, Junin and Bragado, in particular, causing localized flood/water logging problems there. Fortunately for farmers, much drier weather is in the forecast through early June, which should help resume late season activities.

 

Malaysia Targets B30 Biofuel in Transport Sector by 2030

Malaysia, the world’s second-biggest palm oil producer, is targeting the use of B30 biofuel in its transport sector by 2030, Plantation and Commodities Minister Johari Abdul Ghani said on Thursday.

• Government is committed to expanding use of biofuel for environmental sustainability, Johari said in a speech
• B20 program — which mandates blending 20% palm-based biofuels with diesel — was launched in January 2020 in the transport sector in several locations including Langkawi, Labuan and Sarawak
• Studies show that biofuels can reduce greenhouse gas emissions up to 75% compared with conventional diesel, Johari said
• As of May 15, 65.1% or 4.34 million hectares of oil palm planted area across the country has been certified under the national scheme, Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil
• All palm material used in biofuel production also certified under this sustainability scheme

 

China to auction 2,300 metric tons of frozen beef and mutton on May 30, notice says

China will auction 2,300 metric tons of frozen beef and mutton on May 30, according to a notice issued by state-owned company Huashang Reserve Commodity Management Center on Wednesday.

 

Brazil Rules Out Suspected Bird Flu Case in Tocantins Farm

Brazil’s agriculture ministry excluded the suspected case in a commercial farm in the northern state from the map with cases under investigation and confirmed outbreaks.

• Ministry also informed in a statement that Kuwait, Brazil’s 12nd largest chicken importer, suspended purchases from the country
• 24 countries have halted chicken imports from Brazil, including top importer China, the ministry says
  • Second largest client United Arab Emirates and third importer Japan suspended only from the municipality where the virus was identified
• Brazil reported yesterday a new suspected case of avian respiratory and nervous syndrome, which could turn out to be bird flu, in a commercial farm in Rio Grande do Sul state
• On May 22, the ministry started to count the 28-day period during which no outbreaks in commercial flocks must be reported in order for the country to declare itself free of the disease in that region

 

 

 

 

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