Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
CORN
Prices were down $.03-$.08 today with old crop leading the way lower. The July/Dec spread has given back all of yesterday’s rebound. An attempted recovery in Dec-25 corn overnight stalled right at its 50 day MA. Some light showers are moving thru the central and northern Midwest today. Heavier activity overnight in the SE. The next system is bringing scattered showers across Central NE, helping further ease drought conditions. Some late beneficial rains have helped to improve 2nd crop corn in WC areas of Brazil. US corn plantings advanced only 9% to 87% complete, barely staying above the 5-year Ave. of 85%. 67% of the crop has emerged, also just above the 5-year Ave. of 60%. The states with the most acres left to plant are IL – just under 2 mil., Ohio just under 1.5 mil., IN – 1.3 mil., KS – 960k and ND – 925k acres. The initial crop ratings showed only 68% of the crop rated G/E, towards the low end of expectations. The EU lowered their 2025 corn production forecast 1.2 mmt to 63.8 mmt, still well above the USDA forecast of 60 mmt. Without much other news today the market was left to focus on weather which is clearly being viewed as bearish.
SOYBEANS
Prices turned lower across the board after seeing 2 sided trade overnight. Beans were down $.12-$.14, meal was $2-$3 lower, while oil was off 65 points. Spreads were mixed with beans weaker, oil a bit firmer while meal was steady. July-25 beans closed below its 100 day MA support at $10.50. Next support is the May low at $10.36 ½. July-25 meal remains stuck between $290-$300. Next support for July-25 oil is LW’s low at 47.95. Spot board crush margins improved a penny to $1.35 ½ bu. with bean oil PV slipping back to 45.4%. New crop crush margins remain considerably higher at $1.75 ½ bu. Precipitation the rest of the week will favor the Gulf coast and Mid-south. Temperatures are expected to hold at below normal readings a few more days for much of the nation’s midsection before gradually rising to above normal readings as we turn the calendar to June. Extended forecasts lean toward above normal temperatures and rainfall thru the first week to 10 days of June. Plantings advanced 10% to 76% complete, above the 66% pace from YA and 5-year Ave. of 68%. Plantings have slipped below the record pace of 77% from 4 years ago. Emergence has reached 50% vs. the 5-year Ave. of 40%. The only states running behind their historical average are MS – 79% vs. 86%, KY – 52% vs. 57% and OH – 52% vs. 62%. Brazil’s soybean exports in May-25 are expected to reach just over 14 mmt, down from 14.5 in April-25 however up 4% YOY.
WHEAT
Prices scratched out a higher close all around led by MGEX which was $.05-$.07 higher. CGO and KC closed with gains of $.01-$.02. Spreads firmed across all 3 classes. Winter wheat conditions slipped 2% to 50% G/E vs. expectations for no change. The largest drops were seen in OK down 10%, NE down 9% while TX was off 6%. Current ratings suggest an average yield of 52.3 bpa and production of 1.346 bil. below the USDA yield of 53.7 bpa, however above the 51.7 bpa yield from YA. Spring wheat seedings advanced only 5% to 87% complete matching YA while still above the 5-year Ave. of 80%. Only 45% of the crop was rated G/E, well below expectations. Initial composite ratings are the 2nd lowest in the past decade. The EU raised their production forecast .3 mmt to 126.6 mmt, still well below the USDA forecast of 136 mmt. India’s Ministry of Ag. is forecasting 2025 production at a record 115.4 mmt, likely meaning no need for imports in the 25/26 MY.
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