North America Weather Forecast is Crop Favorable

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed. North America weather forecast is crop favorable. Rains improved US north plains. US Delta, SE and ECB remans wet. US WCB is dry. China wheat areas are dry but rains is in the forecast. N EU is dry but rains are in the forecast. Trump reversed a decision on EU tariffs and returned to July 9 as an end date for negotiations or application of higher US tariff rates. Expect choppy commodity trade until more is known about tariffs. Gold is lower. Crude is higher, USD is higher. US stocks are sharply higher.

SOYBEANS 

SN is near 10.66. Need a trade/close over 10.75 to suggest higher prices. Dalian soymeal and palmoil futures were higher. Soybeans were lower. SN is at the higher end of the trading range since early April. One group dropped US 2024/25 soybean crush 20 mil vu which raised carryout to 374. They reduced 2025/26 crush 75 mil bu vs USDA but added 200 mil bu to their export guess. This leaves a carryout at 500 mil bu vs USDA 295. One crop watcher est Brazil soybean crop at 169 mmt. He est Argentina soybean crop down 1.5 mmt to 48.5. Argentina soybean export tax will increase from 26 pct to 33 pct on July 1. SBM and SBO will go up to 31 pct from 24.

CORN 

CN is near 4.59. Most look for first US corn crop USDA rating near 75 pct G/E. CN is back between 200 DMA and 20 DMA. Dalian corn ended lower. Some feel US 2025/26 exports are 275 mil bu below USDA which increase carryout closer to 2,020. US corn export commit is near 2,491 mil bu vs 1,939 last year. US export price is competitive until late summer and start of Brazil 2nd corn crop harvest. Est of Brazil corn crop now closer to 140 mmt. Argentina corn export tax will increase from 9.5 to 12.

WHEAT  

WN is near 5.36. WN support is 5.25. Resistance is 5.60. Trade over 5.60 suggest higher momentum and potential Managed fund short covering. Wheat futures found support from recent drop in USD, C US rains, increase wheat feeding and reports that Russia largest wheat producing region declared state of emergency. US SRW export price is near $229, Russia $245, France $242 and Germany $271. Balkans wheat export prices are lowest.

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.