Global Ag News For May 15.2025

TOP HEADLINES

US generated fewer renewable blending credits in April, EPA says

The United States generated fewer renewable blending credits in April versus the prior month, data from the Environmental Protection Agency showed on Wednesday.

About 1.16 billion ethanol (D6) blending credits were generated in April, compared with about 1.21 billion in March, the data showed.

Credits generated from biodiesel (D4) blending rose to about 592 million in April from 573 million the month prior, the data showed.

The credits are used by oil refiners and importers to show compliance with EPA-mandated renewable blending quotas for petroleum-based fuels. They are generated with every gallon of biofuel produced.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1/4 in SRW, up 1/4 in HRW, down 1/4 in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans down 13; Soymeal up $6.80; Soyoil down 3.00.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 5 1/4 in SRW, up 7 1/2 in HRW, down 15 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3; Soybeans up 14; Soymeal up $4.60; Soyoil up 0.75.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 5 3/4 in SRW, down 6 1/4 in HRW, down 20 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 30; Soybeans up 20 1/4; Soymeal up $0.70; Soyoil up 0.35.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 4.4% in SRW, down 6.1% in HRW, down 2.9% in HRS; Corn is down 2.6%; Soybeans up 6.8%; Soymeal down 2.9%; Soyoil up 24.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans up 16 yuan; Soymeal up 5; Soyoil down 36; Palm oil down 4; Corn down 5 — Malaysian Palm is down 73.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 73 ringgit (-1.86%) at 3850.

 

There were changes in registrations (-1 SRW Wheat, 10 Soyoil). Registration total: 239 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 201 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 996 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 598 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 14 were: SRW Wheat up 2,863 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,196, Corn up 8,504, Soybeans up 12,047, Soymeal up 6,279, Soyoil up 8,577.

 

Northern Plains: A larger system will move through with more widespread and potentially moderate to heavy rainfall through Friday across the Dakotas. This should be a good shot to get some needed rain after many have finished planting already. However, colder temperatures should follow the system into next week, and may cause some patchy frost in some areas. There should be more chances for rain that follow this weekend and next week as well.

Central/Southern Plains: A larger system will move across the Northern Plains and bring showers to Nebraska Wednesday and Thursday, which is in desperate need for some rain. A better system should move through Sunday into early next week with a much better chance at more widespread showers, which would include Nebraska again. Southern areas will not mind a break in the rainfall. Additional disturbances are forecast to bring showers next week as well, though the southwestern wheat areas could be missing out on a lot of this potential rainfall.

Midwest: An upper-low in the Southeast has been spreading showers across much of the region this week. That continues Wednesday, though showers will be much more isolated. A system will move through Thursday and Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. It should leave behind a front near the Ohio River that should remain active Friday into Saturday. Overall, much of the region is looking at least at chances for rainfall, which are needed more in the northwest than elsewhere. Another system should roll through early next week with more rainfall potential as part of a more active and milder pattern to end the month.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: A front will settle into the area on Friday that could bring showers through the weekend as well as some severe weather. Breaks have not been very long between showers, which has left the region very wet and is likely causing some issues, including flooding on the Lower Mississippi River that has been very slow to fall. Several disturbances moving through next week could bring additional showers, but an overall drying trend is expected next week.

Canadian Prairies: A system will bring scattered showers through the region throughout the rest of the week, including heavy rain in the east. It is possible that some snow mixes in over Manitoba as showers wind down on Friday. Temperatures are trending colder and frosts may return by the weekend in some areas. The weather pattern looks to stay active next week with multiple chances for precipitation as well. That could slow down the planting progress, which is already ahead of schedule, but would be helpful to build some moisture in for the newly planted crops.

Brazil: With the wet season over, Brazil relies on fronts coming up from Argentina to supply southern areas with some rainfall, which would be favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Corn will largely draw upon built up soil moisture from the wet season to fill kernels. A front may move into southern areas early next week with some showers.

Argentina: Good harvest conditions have been in place for a while now for corn and soybeans, as well as early planting for winter wheat. A complicated front will waffle over the country later this week and weekend and may get some showers into northern and eastern areas. More showers are possible next week, which would be helpful for winter wheat establishment.

 

The player sheet for 5/14 had funds: net buyers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 10,000 corn, buyers of 3,500 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and buyers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC bought about 660,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) bought an estimated 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender seeking up to 138,000 tons
• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) purchased about 60,000 metric tons of soymeal to be sourced optionally from the United States, South America or China in an international tender
• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 60,000 metric tons of soymeal expected to be sourced from South America in a private deal without an international tender being issued
• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 64,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat to be sourced from optional worldwide origins in a private deal without issuing an international tender.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia has issued a tender to buy 655,000 metric tons of wheat for the August to October 2025 shipment period, the General Food Security Authority (GFSA) said on Thursday.
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 320,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from Argentina or Brazil only.
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 1% to 25.445M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 25.067 mln bbl
• Plant production at 0.993m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.031m

 

CROP SURVEY: US April Soybean Crush Seen at 183.8M Bushels

Projections are based on a survey of up to eight analysts conducted by Bloomberg News on May 13-14.

• Soybean crush seen 8.5% higher vs April of last year, and a decline of 5.5% vs a month ago
• Oil stocks at the end of last month seen at 1.445b lbs vs 1.832b a year earlier

 

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending May 8.

• Corn est. range 1,200k – 2,100k tons, with avg of 1,575k
• Soybean est. range 300k – 950k tons, with avg of 667k

 

CROP TOUR: Kansas Wheat Yield Seen Above Last Year on Second Day

Hard red winter wheat yields are estimated at an average 53.3 bu/acre, according to data collected from 211 fields Wednesday on the second day of the Wheat Quality Council’s annual crop tour.

• That’s above 42.4 bu/acre a year ago; the two-day average was 52 bu/acre after 407 stops
• The projected increase comes as rains boosted fields earlier in the season, before conditions turned drier
• Scouts found elevated levels of the crop virus wheat streak mosaic, which could impact yields at harvest
• NOTE: The crop tour will estimate production for the entire state on Thursday
• NOTE: The US Department of Agriculture estimated the state’s yield at 50 bu/acre

 

Argentina grains exchange raises 2025/26 soybean forecast by 3 mln tons

Argentina’s Rosario grains exchange on Wednesday increased its estimate for the country’s 2024/25 soybean production to 48.5 million metric tons due to better-than-expected yields.

The exchange had previously forecast the soybean harvest would reach 45.5 million tons.

Argentina is the world’s leading exporter of soybean oil and meal, the third largest corn exporter, and an important producer of wheat.

In its first projection for the 2025/26 wheat campaign, the exchange estimated production at 21 million tons, above the 20.1 million tons harvested in the 2024/25 cycle.

The grains exchange said farmers are expected to plant 7.2 million hectares of wheat, which would mark “the largest area sown with wheat in the last 15 years.”

Wheat planting is set to begin in the coming weeks in Argentina.

 

Brazil corn output forecast at 125 mln metric tons, association president says

Brazil’s corn output is forecast to hit around 125 million metric tons in the 2024/25 crop, Paulo Bertolini, president of Abramilho, the Brazilian Association of Corn and Sorghum Producers, said on Wednesday, adding that the ethanol industry’s consumption of corn could soon more than double.

“Corn ethanol is already consuming around 20 million tons of corn this year and has a tendency and a possibility of consuming more than double that in a short period of time,” Bertolini told Reuters on the sidelines of Abramilho’s third congress in Brasilia.

Corn ethanol is growing rapidly in Brazil, with analysts at Citibank expecting production of the fuel to hit 16 billion liters by 2032, up from 9.5 billion liters expected for the 2024/25 season.

The South American country plans to increase the legal requirement for the proportion of ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 30%. Demand for the renewable fuel is allowing for further exploration, Bertolini said, adding that ethanol made from sorghum is also being looked at.

“Some of these (ethanol) plants are also prepared to receive sorghum,” Bertolini said.

Operations to produce ethanol from sorghum are slated to begin in Brazil’s Mato Grosso do Sul state later this year, he added.

“Sorghum is quite interesting in Brazil, it is still under explored, although we are the third largest producer of sorghum in the world but (production) is only 5 million tons,” Bertolini said.

Sorghum has lots of potential for growth, he added, particularly among farmers who miss the ideal window for planting corn in the yellow grain’s second crop.

 

Poor soil moisture across spring wheat belt lowers U.S. wheat yield but wetter days are ahead

2025/26 U.S. WHEAT PRODUCTION: 52.3 [49.7–54.8] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 U.S. total wheat production is slightly (<1%) lowered to 52.3 [49.7–54.8] million tons, as overall positive winter crop yield prospects are offset by poor soil moisture conditions and hence low yield potential throughout the spring wheat belt. In its May WASDE report (released on 12 May), the USDA pegged 2025/26 U.S. total wheat production at 52.28 million tons, in line with our current outlook. Our current median estimate puts national-level winter wheat yield at 51.5 bushels per acre (bpa), 4.1% below last season but on par with trend yield. This leads to total winter wheat production of 36.9 [35.1–38.7] million tons, up 1% compared to previous update. Production of total spring wheat is estimated at 15.4 [14.6–16.1] million tons (with durum and other spring wheat at 2.0 and 13.4 million tons, respectively), down 3.2% from last update.

Warm/dry weather has been dominant across the spring wheat belt over the past two weeks, accelerating planting efforts and early crop emergence. Sowing pace picked up greatly over the last week especially – with a whopping 22% jump from last week at the national level – and now running at 66% as of 11 May (according to the USDA’s latest Crop Progress report), 7% ahead of last year and 17% ahead of the 5-year average. While the current rapid crop progress is easing early season concerns, the overall soil moisture conditions are alarmingly poor across the Northern Plains and areas to the west, exerting downward pressure on spring wheat yield potential, warranting attention. The top spring wheat producer the Dakotas, in particular, is currently showing at least 6-year low soil moisture levels, greatly in need of immediate water supply. Fortunately for farmers, much wetter weather is in the forecast in the coming days, which should provide long awaited moisture for the dry areas. On the winter wheat front, USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (released on 12 May) continues to indicate overall healthy crop conditions, with 54% of the crop in the good or excellent (GEX) category, better than last year’s 50%. This is impressive considering all the potential winterkill events and soil moisture deficits that have highlighted the crop’s dormancy period during the winter. One major hard red winter (HRW) wheat producing region that warrants close attention is Nebraska, whose soil moisture levels have been hovering around 6-year lows since the beginning of the season. There is no end in sight to dryness in Nebraska, which warrants close monitoring.

 

Recent catch up in harvest pace bodes well for Argentina soybean production

2024/25 ARGENTINA SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 48.9 [47.3–50.6] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2024/25 Argentina soybean production remains afloat at 48.9 [47.3–50.6] million tons, thanks to overall favorable early May weather conditions and a great catch up in harvest pace over the past couple of weeks. In May’s WASDE report (released on 12 May), USDA placed Argentina soy production at 49 million tons, unchanged from its previous projection in April. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently forecast production at 50 and 45.5 million tons, respectively. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of 08 May, soybean harvest was 45% complete nationally, now only slightly behind last year’s 48%. This is impressive considering the delay was up to 11% just few weeks ago. Farmers made a great progress during the period of 30 April to 08 May, recording a whopping 20% jump at the national level. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires also reported progress of 44.9%, largely back on track. Past two weeks featured overall warm and dry conditions across Argentina’s core. Most major producing areas of the main Pampas saw above normal temperatures along with below average rainfall totals, though some far eastern crop regions such as northeastern Buenos Aires and southeastern Santa Fe received near normal precipitation during the period. Some localized frost events occurred in the far southwestern Pampas momentarily but the impacts were minor and almost negligible as crops are barely grown there. Looking ahead, both GFS and EC weather models indicate that the eastern half the Pampas will likely experience above average precipitation over the next 5-10 days (albeit the exact totals are variable in recent runs), warranting attention as the prime harvest season unfolds.

 

Soil moisture levels are favorable for China corn production; spring corn planting is currently underway

2025/26 CHINA CORN PRODUCTION: 299.4 [291.6–304.7] MILLION TONS, up fractinally from last update

LSEG forecasts that China’s corn sown area will rise by 0.5% to 44.95 million hectares in 2025/26, driven by higher profitability relative to competing crops, historical farming practices, and government policies aiming to stabilize grain/oilseed areas and boost yields.

Spring corn planting is underway in the key corn producing region of the four Northeast provinces. Recent weeks brought near to above-normal precipitation in the region, raising top-layer soil moisture to above normal levels. Weather forecasts predict 50-70 mm of rain (20-40 mm above average) in the next two weeks, with temperatures dropping up to 5°C below normal. If verified, the rains would ensure sufficient soil moisture for crops, yet cool and wet conditions might disrupt spring planting and delay corn early development.

Regarding the summer weather outlooks, there are discrepancies between the EC and CFS model forecasts. The EC model predicts wet weather with normal to warm temperatures in the Northeast and North China plain from July to September, which would be beneficial for corn production. In contrast, the CFS models forecast warm and dry conditions for August-September, potentially harming corn yields.

Based on favorable early-season soil moisture and the summer weather outlooks, we have estimated the corn yield in China to be 6.66 tons per hectare, resulting in a projected production of 299.4 million tons for the 2025/26 season.

 

Russia’s April seaborne grain exports fell 61% to 2.4 million tons

Russia’s seaborne grain exports dropped by 61.3% year-on-year in April to 2.4 million metric tons, according to shipping data from industry sources released on Wednesday.

Russia, the world’s leading wheat exporter, shipped grain to global markets at a record pace during the first part of the 2024/25 marketing season, which began on July 1 of last year. However, the introduction of export quotas in February led to a sharp decline in exports.

Total seaborne exports have reached 42.4 million tons this season, falling by 16.6% compared to the previous year, according to the data.

For the entire 2024/2025 season, Russia’s grain exports are expected to fall by one-fifth from the previous season’s record, reaching 55-57 million metric tons, due to a harvest affected by bad weather, according to the Agriculture Ministry.

Exports via the Black Sea terminals dropped by 61.2% to almost 2.2 million tons.

Exports through the Caspian Sea, primarily targeting Iran, were completely stopped in April, compared to 0.37 million metric tons in April 2024.

Grain exports from Baltic Sea terminals, which supply Russian grain to new markets, including West Africa and Latin America, decreased by 31,5% in April to 0.16 million metric tons, according to the data.

Seaborne exports accounted for about 90% of Russia’s total grain exports last season. Last year, Russia exported about 62 million tons of grain through its sea terminals, according to analysts’ estimates.

 

Ukraine keeps 2025 grain forecast at 56 million tons despite poor weather

Ukraine’s farm ministry is keeping its 2025 grain harvest forecast at 56 million metric tons despite unfavourable weather in April and early May, the first deputy agriculture minister said on Thursday.

Ukraine harvested 56.2 million tons of grain in 2024.

“We have 56 million tons in our forecast. June will show a more realistic picture and we will make an estimate in June,” Taras Vysotskiy told Reuters.

State weather forecasters said on Tuesday that weather conditions in early May were mostly satisfactory for grain fields, but frost and drought in southern regions have damaged or killed some winter wheat, peas, rapeseed and barley crops.

Ukrainian farmers are sowing spring crops and the harvest depends on grain fields having enough heat and moisture for germination and growth.

Forecasters said that as a result of drought and frequent and prolonged frosts, significant damage or drying of up to 40% of winter wheat crops was observed in some areas of southern regions.

Earlier in the month, the forecasters had said that strong and prolonged frosts followed by unusually high temperatures and a lack of precipitation in April all had a negative impact on the development of Ukrainian spring crops.

APK-Inform agriculture consultancy this week made an unexpected downward revision to its forecast for Ukraine’s 2025 grain crop, cutting it by almost 4% to 55.3 million tons.

The consultancy said Ukraine’s corn harvest could be 7.3% lower than in its previous forecast.

The farm ministry said last week that farmers had sown 4.23 million hectares (10.5 million acres) of grain as of May 8, about 76% of the total expected planting area.

 

Japan Farm Lobby Urges Rejecting Any US Deal Risking Agriculture

Japan’s largest agricultural lobby urged the government not to make any trade deal with the US that would harm the domestic farming sector.

“Negotiations that would compromise Japan’s agriculture are completely unacceptable,” said the petition submitted by JA-Zenchu to chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa on Thursday. “Japan is already importing a significant volume of US-produced agricultural and livestock products,” the document noted.

The lobby’s emergency appeal comes as Japan remains locked in trade talks, where expanded imports of American farm goods have emerged as a potential bargaining chip. Tokyo is reportedly weighing the possibility of boosting imports of US rice, soybeans and corn, following repeated criticism from President Donald Trump that Japan imposes tariffs as high as 700% on American rice.

The petition voiced particularly strong concerns about rice. “Rice is a staple of our nation and one of the few commodities for which we maintain self-sufficiency,” it stated. “The short-sighted approach of addressing current rice price surges by boosting imports threatens our long-term food security and undermines the national interest,” the petition added.

A recent trade agreement between the US and the UK also suggested that agriculture could be a target area in ongoing negotiations. Under the deal, London gave the US greater access to its beef market.

Trade chiefs from around the world are in Jeju, South Korea for an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting, aiming for talks with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Japan opted to send lower-ranking officials to the gathering, making it less likely it’ll get time with the US negotiator

 

Ukraine’s Astarta Gets IFC $40m Loan for Soy Protein Plant

Ukraine’s agriculture holding Astarta secures $40m loan from the International Financial Corporation to build a soy protein concentrate plant, company says by email.

• Loan includes $27m from IFC and $23m concessional loan from the government of Netherlands
• IFC financing is backed by guarantees from the European Commission’s Ukraine Investment Framework, government of Netherlands
• Soy protein concentrate project is part of Astarta’s long-term sustainable agribusiness strategy: CEO Viktor Ivanchyk

 

US farm agency cancels Food for Progress food aid grants

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Wednesday canceled existing grants under its Food for Progress food aid program, according to an email seen by Reuters and two sources familiar with the situation.

The Food for Progress program sends U.S. commodities abroad for agricultural and economic development projects, providing an important foreign market for farmers and enhancing food security in poorer countries.

The program had been briefly paused in February under a review of federal spending by the administration of President Donald Trump, but quickly resumed.

Food for Progress grantees were notified by the USDA on Wednesday that their awards were terminated and that staff would work with them on the “security, integrity, and disposition of any commodities” associated with the awards, according to an email seen by Reuters.

The cancellations appeared to affect all existing awards, including some dating back to 2018, said one of the sources. Reuters could not independently confirm how many awards were canceled.

Some of the commodities for projects funded in 2024 are still being shipped to their destinations, the source said.

The USDA did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Trump’s budget had proposed eliminating Food for Progress and other foreign food aid programs, including the McGovern-Dole Food for Education program run by USDA and the Food for Peace program administered by USAID.

The USDA issued more than $218 million in Food for Progress grants in 2024, to send crops like milled rice, soybean meal, wheat, and yellow soybeans to countries, including Tanzania, Tunisia and Sri Lanka.

 

 

 

 

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